IMO it seems likely that these cases of “reinfection” are relapses from people with weird immune systems. There’s a lot we don’t know and this does present some more doubt to the effectiveness of herd immunity.
Question for the smart people who know stuff - is it possible the virus has mutated enough that the new more contagious version (ChrisV’s hobbyhorse) is a different strain? What constitutes a new strain?
There is likely some amount of genetic difference in risk. A study in the UK found that the raw chance of black people dying of COVID was about 4.2 times higher than whites. They ran a multivariate logistic regression to control for these variables:
To ensure that a broad range of factors were taken into account, we also adjusted for region, rural and urban classification, area deprivation, household composition, socio-economic position, highest qualification held, household tenure, and health or disability in the 2011 Census.
This reduced the relative risk of dying from COVID to more like 1.8 or 1.9 times higher, and there are still variables which are not taken into account (type of employment stands out there) but twice as high is still a fair bit of difference to explain and studies in various places have consistently found similar effects. This is a situation where there are obvious single candidate genes that could explain an effect like this. SARS-CoV-2 uses the ACE2 protein to gain access to human cells. We already know that the distribution of different versions of this gene differs substantially between ethnic groups (there are some variants which are only present in African populations, for example). We don’t know what effect these different versions have just yet, but it would probably more surprising if it didn’t matter than if it did.
This is a good point. It is likely we will get an FDA approved vaccine for tens of millions of doses at some point in 2021. This FDA approval will mean it’s safe and there aren’t great alternatives. It is unclear how effective these vaccines will actually be. I’m hoping they’re pretty solid.
I am no expert but as I understand it, biologists still bicker about the precise definition of “species.” I would guess there’s no exact definition of what a strain is other than one type seems to be materially different from another type in some hand-wavy way.
Basically humans have trying to apply Platonic concepts and categories to life before we even knew about evolution and the result is a hot mess.
We modelled three scenarios in which the coverage of essential maternal and child health interventions is reduced by 9·8–51·9% and the prevalence of wasting is increased by 10–50%.
Our least severe scenario (coverage reductions of 9·8–18·5% and wasting increase of 10%) over 6 months would result in 253 500 additional child deaths and 12 200 additional maternal deaths. Our most severe scenario (coverage reductions of 39·3–51·9% and wasting increase of 50%) over 6 months would result in 1 157 000 additional child deaths and 56 700 additional maternal deaths. These additional deaths would represent an increase of 9·8–44·7% in under-5 child deaths per month, and an 8·3–38·6% increase in maternal deaths per month, across the 118 countries.
Our analysis shows that if the COVID-19 pandemic results in widespread disruption to health systems and reduced access to food, LMICs can expect to see large increases in maternal and child deaths. Under our first scenario (coverage reductions of 9·8–18·5% and wasting increase of 10%), over 6 months there would be 253 500 additional child deaths and 12 200 additional maternal deaths. Under our third scenario (coverage reductions of 39·3–51·9% and wasting increase of 50%), over 6 months there would be 1 157 000 additional child deaths and 56 700 additional maternal deaths. These deaths would represent a 9·8–44·7% increase in under-5 child deaths per month, and an 8·3–38·6% increase in maternal deaths per month, across the 118 countries.
We do not intend our estimates as a prediction. Instead, we aim to show what could happen under scenarios of differing severity and duration.
I don’t think there is anything hand wavy about it. There just has to be something different. Now if that difference has no discernible effect, there is probably no value in distinguishing the strains, but I suppose someone really aspie would be correct in claiming that they are different strains if he could point to an identifiable difference.
So, as a practical matter, there would have to be some difference (i.e. in the genome) and that difference would have to result in an effect that had some sort of significance. How significant? I suppose that’s debatable. If that’s what you mean by hand-wavy, I guess that’s fine. It’s just not the term I’d use.
haha I actually have a similar belief where it would actually be more educational if they just interviewed random people on the news all fucking day for everything. instead of anderson cooper 360 inviting on some random dippy trump surrogate whos the former vice chair of the virginia republican party they just interview a random republican off the street and it would 1000% be more informative than listening to some paid concern troll spout bullshit talking points. i actually really want to hear the villages white power guy out like he should just be cnn’s go to trump supporter for comment on everything trump does.
Same with why down south Karen doesnt give a shit either. Flip these numbers and Karen is calling every single minority who ventures outside their house for a second without a mask a fucking n***** or wetback.
Big difference between press releases and actual data. Considering Trump will be in the loop I’m very worried something that doesn’t work or worse is harmful will get shoved out in October.
I could have phrased that better, I didn’t mean to be pejorative when I said “hand wavy.” It’s just that there’s no precise definition of “does something different.” It’s like pornography, we can’t define it exactly but we know it when we see it.
In other news, masks are now mandatory in grocery stores here in Ohio, so that’s a positive development.
I’d probably use “antigenically unrelated” as a formal definition of a new strain. Not that there cannot be any overlap in the antigen/immune response, just that it’s a mild cross reaction.
This is pretty much how flus are defined.
For example there is speculation that other coronoviruses can give some cross reaction to each other. Thinks SARS and MERS (I think). Suspected to be the cause of some false positive antibody tests for covid.
I think in every day use, any change that really impacts the symptoms/behavior will probably be called a new strain where I think the terms “variant” or “mutant” is more accurate.
Another factor in winter besides the cold is a less hours of sunlight. People tend to be inside way more when it’s dark as opposed to when the sun is out.
I have spent a lot of time thinking about seasonal variation and was not surprised to see the Phoniex outbreak due to the insanely hot summers there. I thought Vegas would get hit a lot harder then it has been but it still might happen there. We are not even in August yet so it still might happen and it does seem to be ticking up there.
Species has a whole Other connotation in sexual life forms with respect to the ability to reproduce fertile offspring (so donkeys and horses are not the same species, jackass).
Bacteria used to be classified on characteristics but have moved to specific sequences such has ribosomal RNA and even DNA more recently. As someone that learned my names the old way, a huge number of the bacterial names I know have been changed.
And don’t get me started on yeasts/fungi that have both sexual and asexual forms. They all have multiple names and I need a primer every time I talk to a mycologist. For example:
Genus/species (aliases):Saccharomyces cerevisiae (Candida robusta, anamorph , Cryptococcus fermentans, Saccharomyces ( several species ), Torula cerevisiae, Torulopsis fermentans, Torulopsis sexta)
At some point I’m hoping to drop a massive infodump of ideas for maintaining sanity as things continue to get worse, but here’s one idea that I encourage people to emphasize. Set yourself up for doing atypical/special things - within the context of COVID limitations - on a semi-regular basis. Buy ahi tuna and truffle oil to cook awesome dinners with the money you’d otherwise spend eating out. Set up scheduled movie/goof off/pizza/etc. nights with your partners and kids. Search for day trips and new campsites near your place. But make sure - even as lockdown grows increasingly limiting - that you still provide yourself and your family with special occasions of some form.
To a certain extent, human beings need behavioral and experiential diversity to avoid feeling hopeless/empty, and we’re losing a lot of the ways that we typically access those resources. Be deliberate about creating new ones for yourself and your loved ones, and you’re likely to make it through all of this in far better shape.
Much love to all. I feel lucky to have found a community with this combined level of empathy and intelligence.
