COVID-19: Chapter 5 - BACK TO SCHOOL

What? Most people were predicting much higher death tolls by now.

Nah from what I remember most people weren’t predicting 1,500 dead a day till mid august. Who had higher death tolls?

Ugh, so sorry you’re dealing with this.

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I’ve been saying 1500/day by late July/early August and hitting 2k in another week or two and then up to 2500 then 3k over the next month after.

We may get lucky with the mask compliance going up, but now schools are opening so the masks are delaying the inevitable unless schools close everywhere that’s a hot spot (most places)

I don’t really keep track of who’s saying what, but I don’t recall the conventional wisdom being <2k/day by August.

I don’t know that anyone was super specific about their predictions, particularly single-day predictions, but here’s how I have thought about it. The best prediction of forward-looking deaths is recent cases*recent estimated CFR. (Recent cases are 7 day average and recent CFR is 7 day average deaths divided by 7 day average cases from 21 days ago). That gives me an estimated forward-looking death pattern that looks like this (blue line is high estimate and maroon line is low estimate):

This is kind of a weird plot to look at, but basically it’s saying, “As of a given date, what is the high and low estimate for what 7-day average deaths will be roughly 3 weeks in the future?” So the estimate for today’s death count would look back to July 10th or so, and would say roughly 1,230-1,370 for the 7day average as of today. That’s actually a little higher than current 7-day average of 1,109 (I think that’s what it is right now. I’ve had a few beers.)

My estimate for the peak is that the highest 7-day average deaths will be between 1,350-1,790 and will be somewhere around the 7 days from 8/2-8/8.

Obviously(?) this is a fairly near term estimate and doesn’t account for the obviously-important fact that schools are starting up again in August.

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From the DC Data Modeler, whoever that is.

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https://twitter.com/biorxivpreprint/status/1289347760341291008?s=20
in mice

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And macaques! So when humans all die of the COVID, Earth will be ruled by either monkeys on horseback or mice.

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inshallah

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State Pos% Pos Cases 7DMA 7DMA deaths 7.17 7DMA 7/27 7DMA 8/3 7DMA 8/10 7DMA 8/17 7DAM 8/17 w/floor 2% CFR
Alabama 16.64% 1732 25 37 49 60 72 72
Alaska 1.78% 58 1 1 1 0 0 1
Arizona 23.96% 3249 75 105 135 165 195 195
Arkansas 13.61% 722 6 11 15 20 25 25
California 7.30% 8309 95 109 123 137 152 166
Colorado 6.73% 434 7 7 7 7 7 9
Connecticut 0.79% 75 7 5 4 2 0 2
Delaware 4.10% 72 2 2 1 1 1 1
District of Columbia 1.62% 55 2 2 1 1 0 1
Florida 18.77% 11057 102 206 310 415 519 519
Georgia 15.49% 3421 25 52 79 106 132 132
Hawaii 1.84% 27 1 1 1 0 0 1
Idaho 14.08% 497 2 6 10 14 17 17
Illinois 3.07% 1039 20 17 14 11 8 21
Indiana 8.49% 615 15 15 14 14 13 13
Iowa 9.23% 541 6 8 9 11 12 12
Kansas 10.73% 474 2 5 7 10 13 13
Kentucky 6.37% 394 7 7 7 6 6 8
Louisiana 10.32% 1997 18 26 35 43 52 52
Maine 0.79% 16 1 1 1 0 0 0
Maryland 5.40% 602 9 9 9 8 8 12
Massachusetts 2.40% 249 20 15 11 6 1 5
Michigan 2.60% 623 9 8 7 5 4 12
Minnesota 4.26% 602 7 7 7 7 6 12
Mississippi 13.48% 887 17 20 23 27 30 30
Missouri 5.97% 644 9 9 9 9 10 13
Montana 4.18% 107 1 1 1 1 1 2
Nebraska 6.14% 222 2 2 3 3 3 4
Nevada 15.13% 869 8 14 20 27 33 33
New Hampshire 1.85% 23 2 2 1 1 0 0
New Jersey 1.36% 320 20 15 11 6 1 6
New Mexico 3.99% 261 4 4 3 3 3 5
New York 1.14% 410 10 8 6 3 1 8
North Carolina 7.43% 1994 19 24 28 33 37 40
North Dakota 5.54% 100 1 1 1 1 1 2
Ohio 6.20% 1304 15 16 18 19 20 26
Oklahoma 9.37% 639 4 7 9 12 15 15
Oregon 6.81% 323 4 4 5 5 6 6
Pennsylvania 5.40% 797 15 14 13 12 11 16
Rhode Island 3.46% 62 2 2 1 1 1 1
South Carolina 18.49% 1905 25 41 57 72 88 88
South Dakota 5.60% 59 1 1 1 1 1 1
Tennessee 8.91% 1868 15 22 28 35 42 42
Texas 16.12% 8829 108 170 232 294 356 356
Utah 8.93% 598 4 6 9 11 13 13
Vermont 0.94% 9 0 0 0 0 0 0
Virginia 5.75% 920 10 11 12 12 13 18
Washington 5.90% 729 2 4 6 9 11 15
West Virginia 3.54% 121 1 1 1 1 1 2
Wisconsin 7.15% 827 4 7 9 12 15 17
Wyoming 4.81% 35 0 0 0 0 0 1
USA Totals 767 1064 1362 1659 1957 2063

I did something similar but I used 4 weeks instead of 3. And I did it by state trying to factor in positivity rate.

WELL HOW DID THIS UNEXPECTED THING HAPPEN

https://www.fox13memphis.com/news/local/mississippi-school-district-reports-first-case-covid-19-during-first-week-school/ROMNVESIB5HCVEQYQA3JCWLLCY/

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Ok I guess Fox Memphis isn’t super with it with the previews but schools are facing wait for it Covid cases already

my question is why are schools in mississippi open in july? is that normal or are they trying something different. I assume AC was just implemented in that shit hole.

I thought people were predicting like 3k to 4k daily deaths by June at one point.

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I’m in for 2k the week of the 12th.

So Brian Williams just led with “some models are predicted 180,000 total deaths by the end of August.

Let’s see we at over 150K and already averaging over 1k per day and still going up and certainly peaking above 1.5k if not 2k/day.

Oh and August has 31 effin days.

What other than the cubic model* would predict less than 180K? That’s a minimum is preposterously unlikely to be that low.

*the cubic model likely predicts resurrection of several people already dead.

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i forget if awval said trump needed to kill 300k americans or 350k americans to lose his support, but it might come down to the wire.

hmmm hang on tho, trump is saying the biggest middle class tax cut of all time is right around the corner, and isn’t this virus thing over anyway? stocks are good.

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Narrator: It didn’t come down to the wire.

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I think he said 300k Puerto Ricans, so only like 190k real Americans. Awval should be on the trump train for another 40 days or so.

I wonder what he spent his $20 on. Maybe some nice masks? Hand sanitizer? Flowers for his grandmother’s funeral?

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