I haven’t, but it could be calculated. What 14 days do you want it for? For NC right?
Right, that is correct. So you would want to factor mask compliance and level of shutdown into your target SDI. If it’s only measuring movement, the score would be the same if people were driving to go pickup food curbside as if they were dining in, right? That type of thing in addition to masks could explain NC.
I’m not sure this works how you think it does. Like, SDI impacts R0 which impacts the rate of growth or decline. I think when you’re saying places bounce back quickly, you’re talking about the number of cases not the rate of growth. That’s simply because when you have a ton of cases, regardless of the previous SDI and R0, you have a base from which even a 1.2 R0 and a slightly bad SDI are going to cause a lot of problems.
So the duration of shutdown needed to safely reopen is dependent upon SDI and total cases. The weaker your SDI/R0 improvement and/or the more total cases per capita, the longer you must shut down.
That’s part of the reason we’re doing so much damage right now, we’re building up a huge base number of active cases in a population that lacks the will to shut down long enough to squash the curve.
As of right now, the only available evidence I know of points to immunity in the recovered lasting about two months - and less for minor/asymptomatic cases. That’s for antibodies. So, for herd immunity we’re counting on a learned immune response taking care of it - not antibodies being present.
The fine folks over at disboards still insisting Florida’s numbers are just due to increased testing. Disney reopening still full steam ahead. Lol they’re literally going to open at a time when their state is posting the highest numbers of any state at any time during the pandemic.
I’m not going to be convinced this easily, but we’ll see. I kind of expect an announcement Monday. Let the state rake in those Fourth of July tourism bucks, then announce.
I thought that too, but man they really seem to be full steam ahead and the insiders who post on disboards seem to indicate everything seems full steam ahead at this point.
This is exactly what tptb in San Diego County are doing. They tripped the re-shutdown wire yesterday, but are waiting until Tuesday to actually do the re-shutdown-ing. So we’re the only place in all of urban CA this holiday weekend largely open for business. The freeways coming into town were reported full. Recent record crowds expected at the beaches, museums, parks, restaurants w/inside dining, card rooms, hotels, etc/etc.
I mean, maybe they believe just being outdoors in general is a silver bullet? But didn’t we see some spikes/outbreaks after the maskless GIMME MY HAIRCUT OR GIVE ME DEATH protests?
They have to be somewhat intelligent, right? Like if they stay open for a month, they’re going to rack up some cases and enough bad publicity to have to shut down anyway. They think that’s worth one month’s decreased revenue? Insane.
Yeah it’s deplorable. I guess they are hoping those cases go back to other parts of California, and they’re willing to sacrifice the health of bartenders and waiters and such.
Yeah December-mid February was an absolutely miserable 2.5 months. I’ve never had sinus issues and I thought my head was going to explode at one point. My wife was sicker than I was. I never really had any respiratory issues except a cough that just wouldn’t go away but my breathing was fine. I’m pretty sure it was just a brutal cold.
yup. Fucking KUSI is gleefully reporting pictures of the packed southbound freeways because ECONOMY! and I’m just sitting here like, wtf. Of course all the deplorables up here in east county are bitching about Newsom. First they blame him for shutting us down, now they’re mad because he didn’t shut us down…except they want everything open because of freedom and 'Murica and the contradictions are getting on my every last nerve.
I want to go tear down my neighbor’s trump flag to take out my anger
There’s no contact tracing in Florida and they don’t count out of state positives and deaths in their official totals. So I think they can maybe cover it up.
All of these numbers are continuing the general upward trend we have been seeing. Deaths are overall still low but we are seeing fewer and fewer single digit death days like we were through mid June. Expect the trends to continue generally as S.C. has been more consistent day to day than most other states
If anyone wants some graphic evidence of how bad singing is for COVID spread, watch Hamilton which just dropped on Disney+.
It’s the Broadway version with original cast (filmed in 2016), but since it’s filmed we get closeups on the faces of the performers.
Droplets are really flying. Best example is the first King George song. The dude killed it, but he had so much spit over his mouth it was ridiculous. I suspect this particular performance was pretty high on his range for aggregate droplet production. I’m guessing at most performances he sprays a lot less and they caught him on a bad day.
