Secretary of Defense saying there will be 100s of millions of doses of vaccine by end of year
Wtf
I love how you took time to translate your post into English for suzzer but then left the word fenian in there.
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I get very roughly a month to go down 10 fold in cases per day (no lag accounted for, so add on a few days between action and seeing movement).
So if we are at 25,000 cases per day
1 month is 2,500 per day
2 month is 250 per day
I guess define āburned outā. From where we are at Iād like to see us down to 1,000 a day which works out to about 6.5 weeks. (Again no lag).
This is exactly the type of info we need to see.
I do like the ballpark 75% calc as a first approx. I also hope the coughers and sneezers stay the fuck home.
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I live in Long Beach and there are barbershops in my neighborhood operating with huge black sheets across their windows. Iāve seen them open to let people in.
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Dear Leader said there will be a vaccine this year so thatās that. It is now reality.
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I think a nail salon by me might be doing something similar. I really need a manicure too as it keeps me from biting my fingers which could actually save my life. But no way Iām going in there.
I may see if one of them has a backyard or something and would be willing to do it outside in the sunshine. I feel ok about that + masks + shower afterward. I have a balcony but it doesnāt get much direct sunlight and the airflow isnāt great.
Maybe Vaccine is the trade name for a new, sexier version of hydroxychloroquine.
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Yeah itās not going to do much for us, maybe in blue states that are well-run but weāre still going to constantly import cases from local covidiots vacationing in Florida and such. Could do some good for places like Australia, Germany, South Korea, France, etcā¦ If you open it up and test frequently, then in the fall you see a couple hundred cases, you lock it back down for a month and youāre okay again, then you try to put on restrictions to keep Rt at .9 or something.
Of course Rt .9 restrictions in warm weather probably != Rt .9 restrictions in winter.
And you shook her hand too?
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Completely and total guess that some seasonality and some opening are cancelling each other.
But ho hum, another 25k cases and roughly 1,500 dead.
OFB baby!
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He omitted āin the rest of the world, none in the US.ā
I would be a little bit okay if the rest of the world found a vaccine and then said āUS you are going to be absolutely last.ā
I just went to pick up my prescriptions from my tribal health center. Drive thru only. No human contact. Security directing traffic. Everyone masked up. Thereās a tent out front for COVID triage. Really well done all around.
Went across the street to the tribal casino. It is fucking packed. There is a line out the door. Iād say fewer than half the people in line are wearing a mask. Not the best picture but I didnāt feel like spending more time here.
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Another quality Trump hire.
I hope everyone understands that 12-18 months is cutting out lots of important steps.
12-18 months is the already crazy fast timeline.
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These are all great points.
Yeah, I agree. Like weāre still āclosedā but people are out and about every time I look outside, I-95 is jammed up at rush hour, and so far new cases continue to decline week over week here. We appear to be down 50-60% in the last month. Itās just crazy to me to think about because weāre still miles away from where we were when I decided to lockdown, although in reality if new cases are 3-10x the official total now and they were 20x the official total then, that helpsā¦ But weāre still probably around 900 a day now (Iām just making a rough 7 day average estimate) and we were at like 35 then. So even if itās 3x now and it was 20x then, thatās still 2700 vs 700.
But then it gets even more complicatedā¦ If testing capacity now is way higher than it was then, which it is, in theory the multiplier should drop the fewer cases we have. Like we should be capturing a higher percentage of active cases if there are fewer and weāre doing just as much testing.
So how does this trend play out, if we keep at this pace? More opening, offset by warm weather saving our ass for a little while.
But letās say we have 2,700 now in Philadelphia and itās halving every month. That means on June 15 weāre down to 1,350 a day, on July 15 itās 675 a day, on August 15 itās 338 a day, on September 15 itās 169 per day, and on October 15 itās 85 per day. Thatās probably pretty close to when it starts going up again. And, again very rough estimate here, if a case lasts 3 weeks, that means weād have probably like 1,500 to 2,500 active cases at that point.
If you start doubling the total number of cases every 7 days, which is probably a somewhat reasonable ballpark for where weāll be at with like no groups over 50 and some compliance with mask-wearing, youāre at 32,000 in a month and 64,000 in five weeks - that gets you to around our peak in this wave. If you shutdown two weeks prior than that so that Wave #2 = Wave #1, youāre shutdown by about November 2nd, and staying shutdown for like 5-6 months? Not very likely.
I think weāre going to need a very creative approach that involves a series of shutdowns, staggered workdays, mask-wearing, and protecting the most at-risk to try to get a lower IFR and an āacceptableā peak while still being semi-open.
Even then, if youāre going say four months with like 1,500 cases a day in Philadelphia, thatās going to be 300-500 deaths per month, youāre probably looking at losing about 1,500 to 2,500 people in Philadelphia in the second wave.
Thatās about 12 hundreths of one percent of the population, so if you had a similar situation nationwide, wave #2 would kill over 400,000 people. Obviously nationwide thereās going to be variance from place to place, so youād have to do a bunch of regional examinations, and big cities in the north with lots of public transit usage are going to be way more susceptible it seems.
Feels like that was an awful lot of generous assumptions I made there, all very non-scientific and capped off by a very non-scientific assumption at the end. But to be that generous and get a number that bad is not so goodā¦ That plus what weāre on pace for nationwide between now and the fall, seven figures is very much in play by next Spring.
Yeah, when my ex gave me the totally unsubstantiated claim about millions of vaccines available in July, I started brainstorming how that would be possible and realized that Trump could just order the FDA to approve whatever clears Phase 1. If the president and the remaining task force are on TV every day saying itās safe and claiming the liberals just want to destroy the economy so he loses, hence theyāre against the vaccine, itās going to be a shit show.
If heās willing to lie about a virus thatās killing 10s of thousands of Americans, urging us to open back up when all the experts are telling him its dangerous, why in the world wouldnāt he be willing to lie about the safety of a vaccine when all the experts are telling him that you need three phases of trials?
Iād say the most likely thing right now is that Trump declares every vaccine that clears Phase I safe, gives the manufacturers some sort of blanket immunity from lawsuits, and the American people are 300 million guinea pigs for the world. Frankly, what are people going to do at that point? Thereās no more unemployment coming, the corporations are going to tell people who want to stay at home to go fuck themselves thereās a vaccine, and at least 60% of the country will believe itās safe. Itāll be the science-driven left wing and the conspiracy theory anti-vaxxers united in rejecting the vaccine.
What a union thatāll be.
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By the way, if Trump does that, he wins in a landslide as long as weāve rolled out 10s of millions of vaccines with 100s of millions on schedule by the end of the year. Heāll be taking victory laps for conquering coronavirus against all the odds. Any side effects or problems with the vaccine wonāt hit before the election.
Heāll target Thanksgiving or Christmas, and say the liberals hate Jesus and Christmas and they donāt want you to be able to hug your parents at Christmas.
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First you test it on some poors. Then all the rich get it. Hopefully they just skip the poors testing and trump and buddies can give us good picture of the side effects.
You guys are way way more optimistic about the rate of decay than I am. Basically I think it will be worse for two reasons.
First is that we basically have no stats from the OPEN FOR BUSINESS PHASE. People catching this over the last two weeks are mostly asymptomatic or just starting to get symptomatic now and thinking they might want to seek out a test. Add up 7-14 day incubation period and delays in between the tests being taken and getting results and the vast majority of todayās numbers are from lockdown conditions.
Secondly I think even though we are open for business the R has to be light years lower than it was on March 10th lets say. Masks, some people still under quarantine, most doing some form of social distancing, no kids in school, people working from home, etc. all are going to cut that R value way down. That means even if it is over 1 it will take more time to have a statistically significant increase than it did back in March.
As a result I think the decline we are seeing is the very tail end of the shutdown period. We wonāt see the real results in the numbers until much farther down the road of getting OPEN FOR BUSINESS. While seasonality might matter some there are lots of warm places doing exponential growth with warm temperatures. Some in the US and then others like Mexico, Saudi Arabia, India, Brazil, etc. If it matters at all it wonāt matter a ton. So there may be some offsetting but I donāt think enough to take us to R<1.
Basically what I am saying is that I donāt think we will continue this rate of decline until October.
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