COVID-19: Chapter 4 - OPEN FOR BUSINESS

People around me generally think I’m super arrogant, while in fact I have low self-esteem and am often envious of the people who dislike me. Does that count

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Maybe? I found this list, the big hits for me were sensitivity to noise, varying energy levels, engaging in small talk despite hating it, and especially not being thought of as introverted at all.

Hi bbb,

I am glad to see such concern from you. I think you simply being mindful about this will help an enormous amount. There will be a large degree that will be outside your control, but not everything.

I love this video from Gabor Mate. You may find some comfort and insight for the coming challenges with your kids.

Basically, be present and engage with your children on the terms available to them. And invite them to increasingly engage with you on your terms as they are able. Any experiences they miss with other kids can be made up rapidly. What’s most important is a healthy environment with secure attachments and opportunities for growth.

Just one anecdata, one of my nephews has lived in the middle of nowhere most of his life. Rare access to many friends, and he’s mostly home schooled. I’d have thought he’d be developmentally challenged, but he has an awesome emotional intelligence. He stuns me. He is present and aware and has such high healthy self esteem. When he’s with other kids, I don’t know how he does it. But then I see his relationship with his parents and it clicks that he had that and I didn’t. I have no doubt he will pick up a cadre of friends once he lives in a bigger city (aka an actual city).

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Home depots around me require masks. Physical separation in lines to get in. Limiting number of people in the store.

I actually read through the Wisconsin Supreme Court decision. I’m no lawbro, but it does feel like everyone picked a preferred outcome and worked backwards to come up with an interpretation that backed it up.

There’s a basic argument that the executive branch needs the power to act quickly in times of emergency, but that this power shouldn’t be infinite and should have a process where it can be checked by the legislative branch. Where the individual justices draw the line is based on how they define certain terms.

I mainly come away with the opinion that state law isn’t drafted well to accommodate unforeseen emergencies. In theory, I think it would make sense for governors to have the ability to issue emergency orders but require legislative acquiescence to continue those orders beyond a certain time limit, something along the lines of the War Powers Resolution at the federal level. In practice, things get messy when one side just wants to deny anything the other side asks for.

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The 29% looks like a typo in the article and they meant 26.8%:

If this relationship is linear then extrapolation (See Figure 4) shows zero RADIR being achieved at 6.6 reported cases/1,000 community population. Therefore, to achieve full population immunity, this is equivalent to 150 community cases for each reported case. Total reporting of 400,000 confirmed cases would be expected if the total population of 60 million achieved increased immunity. This also suggests with current 105,000 reported cases that 16.1 million (26.8% of the total population) have now been infected.

From my understanding they’re doing is this:

  1. Estimate R for each of the 150 communities based on the history of reported cases.
  2. R should decrease as the number of reported cases increase because a larger proportion of the population is immune. In this case they’re assuming the relationship between reported cases and R is linear.
  3. Do regression on reported cases vs estimated R values to calculate this linear relationship.
  4. When R = 0, then 100% of the population has been infected at some point and is now immune. But only a fraction of cases are reported. Using the regression line set R = 0 and solve for the number of reported cases. This is their estimate for what fraction of COVID cases end up being reported.
  5. Using the result from 4) they estimate the true number of people who’ve been infected from the current reported cases.

Just from a mathematical point of view this seems like a pretty sketchy estimate. For one, suppose we grant them the assumption that the relationship between R and reported cases is linear. We can go the other way around and estimate R_0. Using their linear regression we can set the number of reported cases to zero to estimate R_0. From their results this would give an R_0 = 1.06, which doesn’t sound like an accurate estimate.

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I’m struggling with the fact that not everybody that wants to “OPEN FOR BUSINESS” is actually stupid.

Absolutely a great many of them are. But not everybody that thinks we should sacrifice some amount of human life for resumption of some economic activity is a moron. That’s the hard part. People much smarter than me are saying things that are really at odds with what I personally believe. I truly don’t think that everyone advocating for opening is a “die for the dow” hillbilly racist Trumper iced tea refill loving moron. I want that to be the case, but I don’t think it is and it hurts my brain :frowning:

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Daily grim news from around the world. Scroll if squeamish:

Italian doctors find link between Covid-19 and inflammatory disorder

Doctors in Italy have reported the first clear evidence of a link between Covid-19 and a rare but serious inflammatory disorder that has required some children to undergo life-saving treatment in intensive care units. The mysterious condition emerged last month when NHS bosses issued an alert to doctors after hospitals admitted a number of children with a mix of toxic shock and symptoms seen in an inflammatory disorder known as Kawasaki disease.

Deaths worldwide near 300,000

The number of lives lost worldwide in the pandemic is nearing 300,000, according to Johns Hopkins University figures, with 297,197 deaths reported. There are 4,347,015 confirmed infections. The true figures are likely to be significantly higher as a result of underreporting or differing definitions of what constitutes a death from coronavirus.

Japan lifts state of emergency for 39 of 47 prefectures

The Japanese prime minister, Shinzo Abe, has lifted the state of emergency for 39 of its 47 prefectures, but said it would remain in place in Tokyo, as well as the second-largest urban area of Osaka, until the coronavirus is contained. Abe also said he would begin work on a second extra budget as part of his government’s economic stimulus measures. “While controlling the spread of the virus as much as possible by acting on the premise that the virus is all around us, we will restore ordinary work and daily life,” Abe told a news conference.

French firm’s pledge to prioritise US with vaccine causes outrage

The British head of a French pharmaceutical company has caused an outcry by saying any vaccine discovered by his firm would initially be reserved for the United States. Paul Hudson, chief executive officer of Sanofi, told Bloomberg News that any vaccine invented by his firm would go to the US first since it had done the most to fund the company’s research. France’s higher education minister, Frédérique Vidal, said Sanofi’s plan to give the US priority access would be “incomprehensible and disgraceful” since a successful vaccine must be “a public good for the world”.

EU monitoring Hungary over emergency legislation

The European commission has said it is monitoring the Hungarian government over coronavirus laws that created a state of emergency with no end date. The commission, the body charged with upholding European Union law, said the absence of a clear time limit on the emergency decree raises “potential concerns as regards legal certainty”, while a media law criminalising the spreading of misinformation about the pandemic “may have a chilling effect on freedom of expression in Hungary”.

Burundi expels four-person WHO team ahead of elections

Burundi’s foreign ministry, in a letter to the World Health Organization’s Africa headquarters, said the UN agency’s representative in Burundi and his three colleagues “are declared persona non grata and as such, must leave the territory of Burundi” by Friday. The letter did not provide a reason for the decision. Diplomatic and administrative sources told AFP the foreign ministry aborted a similar attempt to expel the same four officials a month ago. The east African nation is scheduled to hold a presidential election on 20 May.

Afghanistan records biggest one-day rise in coronavirus cases

Afghanistan has recorded its biggest one-day rise of new cases as the health ministry warned of a second phase of transmission amid war raging with full intensity across the country. Wahid Majroh, the deputy health minister, has warned the nation that if it continued to break the lockdown there would be another phase of the virus. The health ministry recorded 413 new transmissions over the past day, the biggest one-day rise of new cases, and four deaths, raising the total number of infections to 5,639 and the death toll to 136.

Lloyd’s of London expects to pay out up to £3.5bn

Lloyd’s of London, the world’s biggest insurance market, expects to pay out between $3bn (£2.4bn) and $4.3bn (£3.5bn) to its customers due to the coronavirus pandemic, as it warned of a $203bn hit for the entire industry. The Lloyd’s of London chief executive, John Neal, said the pandemic was an unparalleled event. “What makes Covid-19 unique is the not just the devastating continuing human and social impact, but also the economic shock,” he said. “Taking all those factors together will challenge the industry as never before.”

Burr’s cellphone seized by federal agents

US federal agents have seized the cellphone of Republican senator Richard Burr as they investigate stock transactions made in the early days of the coronavirus crisis. Burr has denied any wrongdoing and said he relied solely on news reports to guide decisions on stock sales, amid reports that he and other senators sold off shares after being briefed on the risks of the crisis.

US-Mexico border factories pressed to stay open despite Covid-19 risk

Mexico’s border states are home to more than 6,000 maquiladoras – largely foreign-owned factories that manufacture products for export – and the plants, which employ hundreds of thousands of people, have been the focus of several coronavirus outbreaks. But official efforts to keep the factories shut and contain the spread of Covid-19 have come under intense pressure from companies – and US government officials – who have urged the Mexican government to keep the maquiladoras running at any cost.

Spain says death toll rise highest in six days

Spain’s daily coronavirus death toll report rose above 200 on Thursday for the first time since 8 May, the health ministry reported. The overall death toll from the disease rose to 27,321 on Thursday as 217 people reportedly died overnight, the ministry said, according to Reuters. The overall number of diagnosed cases rose to 229,540 on Thursday. The number of confirmed coronavirus cases in Germany rose 933 on Thursday, a similar number to Wednesday, to stand at 172,239, according to the Robert Koch Institute for infectious diseases. The reported death toll rose by 89 to 7,723.

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Wife and I are really concerned we have a 5month old that has only seen us for over 2 months. No idea what the long term issues this could cause.

Is Hungary getting kicked out of the EU for going full dictatorship realistic?

So I’m like 600 posts behind, what did Fauci say that went against Trump and has there been any significant finds or news the last couple days?

Not yet, and the EU take a softly softly approach with member states because the project is still relatively in its infancy and expelling member states isn’t a good look, especially in the case of new joiners.

Hence turning a blind eye to sovereign debt levels that broke EU rules.

Two months ago Nigeria had same day testing in some places.

Not going to lie, our horrible testing is more than just inept leadership. Something else is going on. I suspect active sabotage on Trump’s behalf plays a roll. With or without Trump’s knowledge. His minions know he hates anyone talking about positive tests.

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Not surprising. Even the neutered cdc is primarily a science and fact based group. That does not mesh with what trump does at all.

There’s nothing stopping the states, right? Nigeria is actually pretty prosperous for Africa, but if they can pull it off, the state of CA definitely could without any help from the federal government.

This reminds me of the place that created social distance spaces for homeless people to live on the asphalt, via chalk lines.

I used to have to hide under my desk from nuclear bombs and had a lifetime hatred for Russia instilled. I am sure these kids on chalk coffins will develop a lifetime hatred of Chiner

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In honor of Wisconsin and @Inso0 I offer this:

https://youtu.be/oE0aaCc0b6A

I was just looking for that clip at the end of the That 70s Theme Song “Hello Wisconsin” you mentioned, but this is much, much, much better.

I haven’t caught up on all of the posts ITT but wanted to chime in here. I’ve got family that live in Georgia and have heard several really weird things related to the virus there.

  1. My aunt (who is trustworthy) works for a state university in GA. Sometime in early March or late February she had a meeting with a student and student’s mom, and scheduled a follow up meeting for a few days later. At the next meeting, it’s student and student’s dad, and they say that mom is home sick with COVID. My aunt and a few others were sent home through the end of the week, but returned to work the following week. No announcement was made and the rest of the staff/students were never informed.

  2. Uncle’s coworker went to the doctor with covid symptoms, and they took a swab for testing. A few days later he’s informed that they can’t do the test because samples are only good for 48 hours, and it’s taken longer than that to test the sample. He is never given test results.

  3. Same aunt’s brother in law was hospitalized for several days. He was tested for COVID and the hospital refused to give him the test results. They were cagey and said “well you’ve got a serious respiratory condition, I can’t tell you whether you have COVID but you can read between the lines” or something like that.

Secondhand stories, could be misunderstandings or isolated incidents or completely made up I guess, but I generally trust and think pretty highly of these family members.

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