COVID-19: Chapter 4 - OPEN FOR BUSINESS

https://twitter.com/DKThomp/status/1260641365014253568?s=19

(It’s the air people.)

We are really gonna get fucked in the fall. Everyone will be exposed to the virus all summer and once the cold air returns, we’ll be stuck inside and get sick all at once.

You don’t think we’ll get sick in the summer if we’re exposed to the virus in the summer?

Fox News has decided the pandemic is over. On their front page right now…

10 stories on Flynn/Obamagate
4 stories on Biden’s sexual assault allegation
4 stories on Prince Harry
3 stories on dogs killing people
1 story on coronavirus - a dog was infected

Then a few more down there’s something about Democrats’ coronavirus package doing something for illegal aliens. Farther down you get a couple reopening stories and a protest for reopening story. Farther down you get a “Boy Scouts banned from planting American flags on veterans’ graves for Memorial Day due to coronavirus,” story.

This virus is old news, it’s over. Back to normal, everyone.

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I assume he means it as more of an indoor/outdoor thing.

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I know there have been an infinite degrees of “lockdown” across the globe, but for the better part of the last month I’ve seen a lot of talk about various countries/regions beginning to ease restrictions.

Have we seen the shit hit the fan in any of these places? I’ve seen some reports of flare ups here and there (closing clubs in South Korea after a spreader popped a couple dozen folks), but have there been any examples of localities easing restrictions which resulted in a massive/uncontrollable spike in cases?

I’m expecting this in the US because, why not, but I feel like I haven’t seen a place that was bad get better, relax, and then explode again. May definitely not be looking in the right places though…

https://twitter.com/ElieNYC/status/1260668250490384384?s=19

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I can’t prepare every meal myself and need takeout 1-2 times a week — bad

The extra risk from 1-2 takeout meals a week is worth it to me — fine. (But I acknowledge it’s not just risk to me personally)

Your actions have an effect on others whether you like it or not and people interacting when they don’t need to makes it worse for everyone.

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Their TV programming had a lot of people drawing some awfully long knives and pointing them at Fauci, so there’s that.

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My favorite nugget in that discussion: “Also, I heard, and this is strictly on the down low, that sometimes they would take cover when fired upon.”

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I’m actually a bit optimistic lately. Still working from home, not going anywhere, etc, but I’m surprised, given the country generally not GingAF that 95% of the population isn’t infected. Even Jman was saying a week or so back that things are not as bad as he was expecting.

I’m watching Georgia as a bellweather. They were the first state to just say fuck it I believe - on 4/29. Ignore the chart on the GA main state site though. They’re doing something weird with the graph.

Use this one: https://covidtracking.com/data/state/georgia

Most other places are easing restrictions, while still being more restricted than the US was during the lockdown here or will be going forward… So you can’t really compare them directly.

Wow, that seems good.

Right around now is when Georgia should start seeing the increases in cases - if they test properly, which I doubt. In another 7-10 days is when the increase in deaths should start. It’s hard to say whether it will ramp up dramatically right away or appear to be linear for a bit before hitting the tipping point where it really takes off.

Georgia seems to be testing pretty well. Running at 10%. If they were testing badly it should be higher.

covidtracking.com isn’t updated yet. But looking at the raw numbers on the GA state site it looks like another 700 some new cases (not spiking but not falling) and 120 new hospitalizations (which makes two days in a row of higher than the previous 10 days or so).

It’d be pretty beneficial if we knew we could do things outdoors as long as we weren’t in big crowds. It’d enable us to have outdoor restaurant and bar service, open up parks and beaches and maybe put a capacity on them, etc. Give people some normalcy for a few months and then convince them that we need to lockdown again when it gets cold, but things can return to normal when there’s a vaccine or Spring arrives, and we should be on pace for a vaccine by the following Fall.

I think you’d get a lot more compliance in that scenario.

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I don’t trust Kemp one bit. If their hospitals aren’t getting overrun in a month or so, or we aren’t hearing doctors/nurses warn of impending doom there, I’ll start to think they’re going to dodge the bullet til the fall.

Going to be lots of fun for Democrats if this goes well over the summer and the spike doesn’t return until Trump’s already been re-elected.

covidtracking.com lists them as A+ data quality grade. So that’s at least one small point in their behavior.

It’s really hard to suppress testing and run at 10% positive imo. The states where testing is hard to get tend to be 20-30% or higher.

One thing I like is none of this is obvious from the GA state home page. https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report Their chart is completely not representative of the data they put out. They seem to be doing something really weird with that 14 day window. Like they aren’t showing the raw numbers until they’re confirmed after 14 days?

Which means you have to dig for the real data. Maybe someone is sneaking it out that way w/o pissing off Kemp or Trump.

Read that 538 article suzzer linked earlier if you want to go back to doom and gloom.