Seems to me fresh air is factor. When the flu season returns I think the virus will as well.
Dont disagree that the cost savings will be a big driver, but the eployment market will play a factor.
You will also be able to pay less/get better talent for the same price.
If we dont do homeworking the folks who answered my survey will quit and go work for someone who does.
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Not if unemployment is at 15%.
Ok, maybe you just wrote it strangely then. I donât think we can be exposed to it all summer and then all catch it at once just because weâre inside. It may very well slow in the summer and then come back in the fall, no doubt about that.
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They are only protesting because it affects them
Fuck you I got mine in full display
It will also change in segments where companies are competing for employees. Working from home will be a real negotiating option in places it was not previously.
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Yeah thatâs true, maybe there were a lot of people who didnât think this was on the table before and now will push for it. I just think if unemployment is at 15% itâs not going to be a factor so much from that side of the equation, but rather from the ownership side.
Almost everywhere else is being careful though and using testing to help managing reopenings and reversing things at the first sign of a problem.
The US is doing none of this. We wonât even know if a place is exploding until after it has already fully exploded.
Maybe we will magically get lucky and matrix all the bullets but it seems unlikely.
Looks like Right Wing Unstuck is stealing our memes
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Grunching a bit but what countries have exploded and then recovered and then eased restrictions back to normal already? I donât think there are any yet. The US is the closest I would say but they havenât really beaten the first wave yet. The US is still plowing away with 20k new cases a day and 1500 deaths a day. For the hardest hit parts of Europe easing restriction means they are allowed to get takeout food and the like.
Itâs also going to take a lot longer than 2 weeks to start seeing increases in cases. In between the lag from getting it to it getting bad enough to get tested, delays getting test results and the like I would say it is unlikely we will see a big increase in new cases until mid-June. Keep in mind some people doing some things(some masks, less large events, people still WFH, kids not in school) also makes R0 A LOT lower than it was back in early March even if it isnât below 1. If we shift from a R0 of .9 to a R0 of 1.2 that is still exponential growth but you wonât see an explosion of new cases right away.
Then there is also the fact there is some monster funny business going on with the numbers in the early opening states of Georgia, Florida and Texas. So weird how they have tons of cases but no one ever really dies from Covid there.
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People in Iowa donât work out.
Iâll be keeping an eye on Germany over then next month, which has been reopening schools over the past few weeks. Obvious caveat that things may play out differently in other countries, but so far so good.
12 oz curls of bad beer donât count?
Germany is calculating R0 in real time and modifying restrictions up/down to keep it below 1. That is a competent response and things are definitely not fully open or normal in Germany. They also have hardly any active cases so they actually did and are doing what you need to do to beat this thing so far.
ETA- it looks like they just reopened restaurants and bars in the last week. That immediately spiked their real time R0 calc above 1.
Kinda think the reporters should look up âboogalooâ before concluding that virus restrictions are fueling this movement.
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Their use predates ours, sadly.
Pony 2: Electric⌠oh nevermind
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https://twitter.com/eroston/status/1260654586299219969?s=21
Need some ventilation method studies to go along with these findings. Interesting how Droplet size dramatically impacts rate of vertical fall (air resistance?) and the kicker is that small droplets lose water rapidly so that the net size becomes smaller within seconds.
How do we force those droplets away from face level?
Iâm getting more and more convinced that we conduct as much commerce as possible outside BUT still avoid mass outdoor gatherings and wear masks indoors, we can probably ride at an R under 1. Not very much below 1 cause lol merica but below.
Too bad we donât have national leadership championing rational opening.
(I still think we should really have a very hard nationwide month+ long lockdown to seriously drop R an lower the background % contagious level).
I hoping beyond hope that some of the mystery states Like FL and GA are vitamin D or less opening than the news reports just focusing on a couple of conspicuous examples. (I am still team they are full of shit and hiding their stats.)
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This sounds a lot like Cuomoâs plan for regional reopenings in New York. Although for some reason the threshold for increasing restrictions is Rt of 1.1.
I think itâs the smart way to do it because in the end that R0 number is just about all that matters. Slightly below 1 means it eventually decays to nothing. Slightly above 1 means it eventually increases to everyone.
I agree with Dan that you could rationally reopen and probably keep R0 <1. Just doing the following probably gets you pretty close:
-Mandatory mask wearing
-No large scale events like sports, concerts, festivals, etc.
-No in person school
-No indoor sit down dining
-No indoor bars
-No indoor church services
New York State has put the daily hospitalization history online.