It is staggering and it makes no sense. I was looking at currently hospitalized in Maryland compared to TX and using the ratio of current hospitalization and deaths.
Of course I don’t know how good the data is.
Hospitalizations I’m getting from onepoint3acres and deaths from worldmeters. Apparently Marylanders are dying at about 4 times the rate as Texans. And that is currently.
Alsa Maryland has a positive test ratio of 5 compared to 15 in TX.
I guess it comes down to how narrowly a covid death is defined.
While some deaths should maybe not attributed to covid like someone in hospice that gets infected with Corona. Other deaths, that don’t get treated because the healthcare system is overburden, that otherwise would not have happened like a diabetic seizure or cardiac arrest should be attributed because the pandemic prevented those from being treated in a timely manner.
Either way the south is fucked and their economy is going down the toilet because people are scared and staying home.
They haven’t withheld assistance. They’ve made fair and reasonable offers. No more taxpayer money needs to go to the investor class in 2020. The GOP can cooperate, or not… and if they choose to not help it will have electoral consequences they last experienced starting in 1933.
The logic you’re using here gets us to crater, bail them out of the political jam they’ve got themselves in, and help them remain viable going forward. It’s the logic that caused us to bail out the banks last time.
-The May plateau (orange) was looking pretty good but things seem to have taken a turn in June. Gonna have to rescale the daily positives plot.
-The reported ratio of deaths to positives has changed. Part of that is an increase in cases detected resulting in lower CFR, but I also suspect some red state shenanigans in deaths reporting. Deaths/day will sadly turn positive and it will be too big to deny.
I skimmed a long article some mother wrote about sending kids back to school. Basically skipped to her conclusion which was yes, we should send kids back to school, and then looked at her reasons very fast.
A couple of her reasons were that stats show that the percentage of kids who catch COVID is low and hence they catch it less easily and that it’s more often spread from adult to kid than kid to adult.
I was thinking about it and it seems like those notions are mostly a factor of kids having not been in the position to catch the virus as much as adults have. Schools got shut down around the U.S. in mid-March. Most kids have been sitting at home since then. Adults, on the other hand, are going to work (not all, obviously), running errands, eating at restaurants, going to bars, etc.
Am I taking crazy pills here or do those stats, if accurate, not really reflect contagiousness/susceptibility among children, but instead just illustrate circumstance?
Even within America, the disparity in outcomes between places like NYC/NJ and Florida is striking. It’s clear the first world can mitigate this as long as live in a region that isn’t governed by morons. Ohio doing surprisingly well so far, although pressure to reopen has led to a resurgence.
I swear it’s like people have totally forgotten how respiratory diseases work. Of course kids are going to catch it and parents are going to come in sick to work and give it to everybody. We’ve all seen this happen every year with colds and the flu. Kids are going to be the least likely to have been exposed to similar viruses, why would we think that they’re not going to catch it?
Wow that is awful, I’m sorry you have to experience that, it’s painful enough seeing these people decline from the sidelines. It is really wild how they come in relatively well and then predictably decline and it seems like there is nothing we can do but hold on and hope that one of our interventions helps?
This I think is the biggest problem we have right now with all of our data analysis. It isn’t consistent, and definitions have changed. The following video is informative as to how the TX state health department changed the definition as to what was considered a COVID-19 case in the state’s reported case counts, including a probable case definition that is very wide and is included in the state’s reported #'s. Watch a Dallas area County court try to make sense of the definition and how it will affect case counts. The entire session and debate are fascinating, but the meat of the (changing) definition is covered within the first 5 minutes: https://collincountytx.new.swagit.com/videos/62477#
(scroll down and click on “6. COVID-19 Update, Administrative Services” to skip to the proper section in the court update.)
Because of this broader “probable case” definition, it’s hard to keep track of the exact increase in actual confirmed cases. The state’s data set includes these “probable case” counts in their reported cases used by all the online trackers. If you look at supplemental data tabs in the dataset, the reported cases far exceed the “confirmed cases” (positive PCR test result): https://dshs.texas.gov/coronavirus/TexasCOVID19CaseCountData.xlsx
They also didn’t reclassify historical data with this broader definition and I didn’t see a “daily confirmed case” count in any of the datasets, so it’s hard to quantify the trend, although it’s obviously a poor situation, and hospitalizations (which are lab confirmed) have doubled from 3,409 on 6/21 to 6,904 on 7/1.
This is like watching the beginning of a massive pileup on the interstate in slow motion. We’re really about to do shanty towns all over the country again, aren’t we? In America, in 2020? As if we don’t have the resources to prevent a second Great Depression?
Fucking disgraceful. Like 30 million people are drawing unemployment, the CARES Act runs out in a few weeks, and we’re really just gearing up to evict millions, in the middle of a pandemic no less.
Hey, brilliant work Donald, you won’t have to count any of those COVID deaths, you can count them as unemployment deaths and blame the shutdowns, you fucking asshole.
A research team at Yale University has said that the US could be underestimating the true death toll from Covid-19 by as much as 28%.
The team said there had been 781,000 deaths in total in the US during March, April and May - that is 122,300 more than the average for the same period. According to the official data, there were 95,235 Covid-19 deaths in that time.
“Evaluating unexplained increases in deaths due to all causes or attributed to nonspecific outcomes, such as pneumonia and influenza, can provide a more complete picture of the burden of COVID-19,” said the researchers.
They said data on deaths varied significantly between states and that some of the deaths could be attributed to “secondary effects” caused by lockdowns or people being afraid to go to hospitals.
The figures were just an estimate, they said, but concluded that “official tallies likely undercount deaths due to the virus”.
