So maybe they have a legitimate reason to update the way they present their information to the public? Take a deep breath and consider that as a possibility.
The US has a better excess death to reported covid death ratio than many European countries. You suggested that Trump was going to somehow successfully minimize the impact of covid, which I thought was ridiculous and obviously hasnāt come to pass.
Passed along this info. Thanks.
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I was like wtf is a vow renewal (sounds āessentialā) but your last paragraph explains all and won the ālikeā
Donāt go risking your or the wifeās health on that trip, buddy (like especially now USA#1 is experiencing another round of expotential growth)
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Do you beleive the US figures? Arenāt they recorded differently by each state? What makes you think WH stats are more reliable than China stats? US stats are no more than a ālowestā guestimate at this point in time.
The testing capacity of several months ago seems to have been adequate to more or less capture the number of covid deaths pretty accurately, according to comparisons to excess deaths. That was my point at the time, that I thought that covid deaths would be pretty accurately counted. And if they werenāt accurately counted, it would be pretty easy to get an accurate estimate of deaths from an excess death analysis. So even if Trump wanted to try to suppress testing (which, maybe, heās an idiot, who knows) it wouldnāt actually help him to minimize the impact of covid politically. Quite the opposite, it would hurt him politically, because one thing that people left and right all agree on is that they want to be able to get accurately and quickly tested for this thing.
Yes, I do believe US figures. I believe them because they arenāt āwhite houseā statistics, theyāre reported by 50 different health departments in 50 different states. Thereās no mechanism for the white house to meddle in fifty different state health departments. Is Trump forcing Amy Acton to report fraudulent numbers? Seems unlikely. Iām sure some stateās stats are better than others, but the reported covid deaths in the US seem to match up pretty well with the excess deaths analysis so far.
Their explanation doesnāt seem totally unreasonable. Letās at least consider that theyāre trying to do their job properly:
CDC actively reviews our website to make sure the content is accessible and clear for all types of audiences. As a result of one such review, edits were made to the organization of the COVID-19 transmission page, including adding a headline in an attempt to clarify other types of spread beyond person to person. This change was intended to make it easier to read, and was not a result of any new science.
After media reports appeared that suggested a change in CDCās view on transmissibility, it became clear that these edits were confusing. Therefore, we have once again edited the page to provide clarity.
Who collates these figures for the 50 states and reports them to for example the WHO? Does each state upload their own stats to the CDC website or fax some report that the CDC gleans their detail from?
Which organisation would determine what constitutes a covid death? Is that down to the states too?
Worse case you have 50 different territories all using different metrics so you have no real clue (this may not be the case!)
cuserounder thought that a hundred thousand people were going to die of covid and that Trump was going to sweep it under the rug because there wasnāt going to be enough testing capacity. I thought that there would be enough testing capacity to accurately count those deaths and that the opposite was true ā the more testing was unavailable, the worse it would be politically. Because those deaths would be attributed to covid anyway, and people would blame Trump for inadequate testing. Because people of all politics wanted testing capacity expanded as quickly as possible.
I assume this is garbage (based on this guyās timeline), but could it really be true that the current high hospital capacity in Houston is simply normal?
Well accidents only kill like 120k per year in the US. Most of those covid deaths are over a three month period, so even if covid eliminated all accidents, weād only be undercounting excess deaths by 30k. But thereās obviously not going to be that large of an effect, so say half of accidents are prevented. Thatās 15k undercounted excess deaths. Not nothing, but not a tremendous difference. Murders and suicides kill half as many people as accidents and I could actually see both go up. And in any case, accidents, murders, and suicides can all be incorporated into this sort of analysis pretty easily it seems, so it seems like weāll be able to estimate within 10% the number of people killed in this pandemic even if testing doesnāt capture the deaths. And testing at like 1/5 of the rate seemed to pretty accurately capture the NY covid deaths, so testing at 500,000+ per day should capture however many die in coming months.
Iām not sure what you mean by āCan you point to any official tally that factors in the untested deaths in any meaningful way?ā.
that guys feed is hot garbage
97% in June seems ludicrous. Why not during flu season?
Maybe they shut down one ICU ward in the offseason.
Amy Acton resigned earlier this month because Conservatives went nuts on her for trying to keep Ohioans safe.
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Grunching. Are you talking about excess deaths in the US for the same period (average)?
Oh I agree, but Iām trying to have a good faith discussion with a friend who (while definitely trolling me) passed that along. This kind of guy is the type that really tilts me since the reading level is spiced up a bit and formatted in such a way that really can hook a rube right good.