Maybe!
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Houston (6/28)
Cases have dropped a bit the last couple days, but based on nunnās SDI score as of a couple days ago, it seems more likely to reflect on testing capacity than anything else. Still, the R0 is 1.95, so even though there have been several days of flat cases, the R0 remains high.
Slightly more ICUās and vents available, 5 days to regular hospital overflow. There was about a 30% increase in COVID hospitalizations, but they did clear out a lot of non-covid patients to clear up space. Seems like theyāre running out of surge-like things to do.
Cases the last few days:
1374
1365
1231
1238
908
113
Throw out the 113, itās a weekly reporting thing. Those four days in a row between 1238 and 1374 makes me think that their capacity for testing is going to be in that ballpark. They had 1,900 positives the day prior, but that could have been a lag in reporting some or something.
Theyāre one week into a mask order, so weāre probably a few days away from seeing the effects of it.
Orlando 6/28
New R0: 5.21. Fucking five fucking point fucking two. Holy shit.
For a while they were getting numbers of 4+ and the 7-day average was 2.x and I was saying that it was probably an aberration, that the real number was probably between the two - maybe even closer to 2.x. Well, the 7-day R0 is now 3.3, so, fuck.
1.5 days from hospital overrun, but of course what weāre seeing here is just that these locales are bailing out water off the ship. Itās all hands on deck, but itās coming in faster than they can bail it out. It seems like when every city/county/etc gets within the window of inevitability, they manage to delay it like a week, but itās just always going to overwhelm them at that point.
If we go to the 3.3 R0 it buys them half a day, leaving them about 2 days from overrun.
If we give them the 3.3 R0 and clear out 75% of the non-covid patients, while surging the total capacity by 50%, we take the beds available to COVID from 418 to 3,651. I donāt think that combination is likely, but letās say it is. What do you think that gets them? Got your answer?
6 days.
If the R0 is dropped to 1.9, it gets them 14 days. If youāre pumping out cases with an R0 > 3 at this stage of the outbreak, youāre just fucked fucked fucked. Early on you still have time to get it under control before hospitals are crushed. Once youāre in late-stage outbreak mode, yikes.
Spoiler alert: local news says 345 cases reported yesterday (a big decrease), but half as many tests. So, maybe weāre in full-fledged fudge the numbers mode in Florida? The positive rate, though, drops from like 16% to 13%, so maybe a slight improvement.
Of course, they donāt need a slight improvement. Orange County, and for that matter all of Florida, should be in a Wuhan-level lockdown right now. Or, at the very least, Italy-level.
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From my anecdotal report about Houston, itās very hard to get tested right now - super long lines.
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Yeah, I saw a video of that yesterday.
Sure, but itās not just a loving community attitude that makes the difference. In Vietnam the police are dragging people out of their homes and arresting them for Facebook posts about covid that they donāt like. 7 years in prison is possible for such posts.
Not that weāre any better (arresting protesters and threatening long prison terms) and obviously have worse priorities. Iām just saying itās not just community attitude that is driving behavior there.
Probably what it means it that people are a more valuable asset to the government and economic elite in Vietnam than they are here. And I donāt mean that the people are loved, just that it was a business decision. The farmer has carefully segregated sick animals to protect the herd.
Florida only ran 32,000 tests yesterday, 6,100 (20%) of which are positive. Unless I am missing something they are suddenly processing way less tests.
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Very interesting. Gave it a quick once thru. I wonder how air flow patterns work if you can just turn this on in a room and bang or if you need to run the air through a chamber.
They seem to be implying just turn it on.
Monday. Letās see what Tuesday and Wednesday being.
So here in Illinois a few of the main testing locations are only open Monday to Friday, I think that probably accounts for some of the weekend testing disparities
New York having a pretty good back half of the month.
Daily confirmed COVID hospital and nursing home deaths since peak (from Cuomo press conference)
April 8: 799
ā¦
May 1: 299
ā¦
June 1: 58
ā¦
June 18: 25
June 19: 24
June 20: 15
June 21: 10
June 22: 27
June 23: 17
June 24: 17
June 25: 14
June 26: 13
June 27: 5
June 28: 7
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LA County
R0: 1.54
Percentage of Population Actively Infected: .55% (Orlando = .55% as well)
Estimated Days to Overrun: 17.4 (this does not account for surge, decreasing non-covid hospitalization, etc)
ā¦ but Iām just estimating non-covid hospitalizations, I couldnāt find that data. They appear to have a very low hospitalization rate, around 4.4%, whereas 10-16% is normal. So it appears that a lot of whatās going on there is that the testing is better. However, that R0 is still problematic long-term. That said, it appears SoCal still has plenty of time to turn it around.
So what? My neighbourhood has more than twice as many (898 vs 355). Itās more a testament to how well a country with almost 100 million people has done.
Yeah. They tested passing air through a chamber, with the light source shining into it through a window. But thereād be no advantage to the shorter wavelength if youāre going to do that. So irradiate everything in a room with people in it and itās still safe, apparently.
I donāt think so. For one thing your proposal is something like āpeople should be smarterā or specifically āpeople should take greater precautions against spreading covid for the sake of themselves and others.ā Iām not pushing back against that at all. Your point that American culture is anti-communal and individualistic is not something Iām denying and I also think itās a factor. Iām not just accepting that itās a stark contrast though between no communal feeling here and communal feeling everywhere else and that some of that is based on what the police will do if you arenāt so communal and that goes for New Zealand as well as Vietnam.
I really donāt know what utopia is here, but I would not grant the Federal Government an iota more police power than they have for covid or any other reason.
Any idea if these 207-222 nm lamps already exist, how expensive, how much to saturate a normal sized gym, etc?
Interesting stuff. But implementation of this is going to be a major, major thing.
Hereās some info about the applicability of far-UVC lights:
Thereās probably something to it, but Iām curious about the amount of far-UVC needed to create the 90% reduction in airborne viruses within 8 minutes (which seems like about the minimum effectiveness you need to feel āsafeā in a bar or whatever) and what that would look like in a, say, 1000SF bar with a 20ā ceiling height.
Of course RWNJs will think theyāre being used to control our brains, but thatās a lock for almost any possible remedy.
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Where are you getting tests run data from?