https://twitter.com/lorieliebig/status/1277108773140803584
Probably already covered but this shit is insanity.
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I guess itās more about having it be so overwhelming that theyāre totally unable to steal the election, which still makes it technically ācloseā lol.
Yeah at this point I suspect weāre well into landslide territory. This is not something to celebrateā¦ itās happening because the worst case scenario happened (a major actually difficult crisis with Trump as president).
Iāve been wondering that too - are accident related deaths that large of a share? Or are most deaths just heart disease/cancer/being really old anyway.
Oh man do I ever not share your optimism. Hillary was a lock to win in a landslide against a reality TV charlatan and thenā¦that did not happen.
Iām not really seeing evidence that the āshy Trumpersā are really even that shy any longer, and it is hard for me to imagine someone that pulled the lever for Trump in 2016 is now ready to renounce calls to lock her up and build the wall.
I certainly hope you are right, but boy, fool me twice, shame on me.
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Huh? Hillary was never a lock to win in a landslide.
Is that a saying you heard in Tennessee or Texas?
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Happy with a cheap scruffy hotel room but Iāve known for a long time that backpacking and camping arenāt for me.
The only things I need are a morning shower, or even a wash in a bucket of warm water, and coffee to get me going.
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Wouldnāt R=1 mean stasis?
My feeling is that if R=1 would be maintained with hospitals near capacity it would mean hospitals never tip over, but itās an enormous, unnecessary strain on the health system and populace in every way.
R>1 with hospitals at capacity means excessive CFR, higher rate of infections (since family members become caretakers), panics, voluntary shutdowns, looting, etc.
The expiry of CARES extra assistance couldnāt come at a worse time, either.
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This graph is among the most disturbing to me in the SDI exercise Iāve been doing. Hawaii had 12 weeks of what I would consider to be extreme social distancing (only place longer than this is D.C. whose curve is currently ācrushedā), but the cases rebounded (slowly) nearly immediately after dropping below my very high SDI prediction (havenāt checked to see if thereās an explainable change in testing). A lot of places that were riding their target SDI line had āimmediateā and harsh bounce back. Itās almost like itās chilling out, smoking 10 packs of cigarettes a day, and waiting for people to step out of their homes without masks.
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I know itās an odd thing to root for, but the case rise right now couldnāt be coming at a better time. Because of it, theyāve actually been given time to remedy this act ending before that happens.
The cataclysmic place weāre at right now wasnāt expected this soon by probably just about anyone. Weāre past Moscow Mitchās āwait and seeā period now.
I see a near 0% chance the extra $600 is extended. Itās probably 50/50 on a second stimulus check.
Interesting. Thanks for sharing these graphs.
There seem to be two related but distinct lessons here:
- Once you go below a threshold of caution, cases rebound with a vengeance.
- It is damn near impossible to eliminate the virus altogether once it has become widespread in a population at all.
Not good. Not good at all. And itās certainly not good that 1/2 the states have made the problem a literal order of magnitude worse by opening for business. And are well on the way to making it another order of magnitude worse by refusing to roll that back in a meaningful way.
She was like 80c+ on PredictIt the day before the election, and yes, lots of folks were calling for a landslide victory.
I certainly wonāt forget that.
That 2nd check is definitely coming. Donny lives in a world where buying people off is a standard business practice. Heāll probably announce it September and weāll get it 2 weeks before the election.
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Itās time to post my regular reminder of how many sadly missed Politics posters lost their shirts betting the roll on the ālockā HRC.
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That was 2 weeks before the Comey letter.
LOL I really wish people would stop reading my posts over the last week or two as optimistic. I think the situation is binary. Itās either going to get much better or much worse and we have no idea which way itās going. Iām also expecting basically the worst possible COVID outcome here. Iām expecting Congress to do nothing until the economy actually pancakes without government support, and once it falls off a cliff I think stopping it from getting massively worse is way harder than stopping it from going over would have been.
Trump was bad news mostly because something like what is happening could happen. Now itās happened and as a result heās drawing almost dead to be reelected (a normal president would still have outs, but nearly all of Donalds require him to do multiple things heās not capable of). Thatās not optimism thatās grief that we didnāt fade this disaster.
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Also, the polls in that story had her up by 6. She won by 3, within the margin of error.
She said her brother owns the hospitals with his ābusiness partnerā - who Iām guessing has most of the money, since as far as I know my friend isnāt from a super-rich family.