Yeah our incompetence as a nation is built into my guess. I figure we will never see more than 15% positive of our national testing capacity.
Probably about 1-2 weeks ago.
When this is over, we should all just carry our pulse oximeters around and make bets on O2 level staying exactly where it is when the mask goes on. Our winrate will be infinite. Anybody know where I can find Mike Matusow?
Weâre at almost 130K dead. Iâm pretty confident we have over 131K more to go. Also, itâs going to get way worse in the winter ~everywhere, and Donald Trump will still be president until at least January 20, 2021.
If he loses, heâs probably going to cut any/all federal aid, including supplies and testing, to any state that didnât vote for him. Heâll do anything in his power to hurt their ability to control the spread.
If he wins, weâre going to just let it burn through the population until thereâs a vaccine.
I mean, couldnât they both have interacted with some other person who wasnât tested who transmitted it to both of them? If not, hopefully this was a smear transmission. If itâs that easily transmitted via being near someone, none of these outdoor activities that we think are safe are actually safe.
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Grim Reaper guy in a documentaryâŚ
https://twitter.com/DWUhlfelderLaw/status/1277389213768482816
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Iâm sure this is some kind of reporting anomaly but interesting nonetheless.
Over
Does anyone know the perceived U.S. current daily testing capacity?
Keep in mind that itâs also regional/local. So weâre going to blow through testing capacity in FL/TX/AZ while tests are sitting unused in NY, PA, etc. As a result, the peak of the official number is going to be substantially lower than X% of national testing capacity.
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Where are you getting this from?
Would a way to calculate it be that proper testing capacity should produce under 5 percent positive, and if itâs at any number above that the difference is âoverâ capacity? As in would that be a way to potentially guess capacity in each state thatâs reporting a high positive rate?
We now have 7 states in pretty dire situations.
Arizona: Despite it all, they are not even slowing down, the R0 went up. I would imagine weâre basically in the situation where hospitals are overrun, but resources are being shifted around and/or data is not really being released on it. Seems hard to imagine theyâre not over capacity in a number of Phoenix and Tucson hospitals. I think this is probably the week weâre going to start to see some harrowing cell phone videos from inside hospitals there. If weâre lucky, it wonât be until next week.
Florida: In Thursdayâs update, their R0 was 2.00 and they were fucked. Now itâs 2.41. I mean, how? [Cue up town hall/city council montage.] Right, thatâs how.
Texas: The R0 goes from 1.65 to 1.82, and theyâre breathing down Floridaâs neck.
South Carolina: A small improvement in R0 from 1.59 to 1.52 is not going to cut it.
Nevada: 1.49 â 1.66, 18-39 â 12-30. Yikes.
Oklahoma: The R0 drops from 2.25 to 1.92 and buys them some time, but Iâm not totally sure I buy it.
Idaho: Theyâre accelerating, the R0 shot up.
Georgia: 1.28 â 1.38, theyâre pretty close to joining the lead pack.
Alabama: Their R0 made a big improvement. I have a hard time buying it, but I havenât really looked at the data. Iâm guessing something fishy is going on, though.
California: Itâs getting pretty concerning, Iâm going to check LA County when I do cities/counties in a bit.
Hawaii: They get the improvement weâve been expecting, hopefully it continues.
Oregon: 1.49 â 1.44, slight improvement as they back away from the cliff slowly.
Meanwhile, among safe states, the following have jumped from below 1.0 to above:
Colorado
Delaware
Michigan
New Mexico
Wisconsin
Indiana, Kentucky, Minnesota and Pennsylvania are about to cross above 1.0.
Right now the only states below .95 are:
Connecticut, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North Dakota, Rhode Island, Vermont and Virginia.
So 13/50. Not great.
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I donât know what that percentage is, but conceptually when a positive percentage hits a certain level and stays flat for a few days to a week, that probably does mean capacity has been hit. You can also check news coverage, word should get out.
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In addition to the obvious human costs, one of the really bad (nerdy) downsides of a positive rate above 5% or so is that it significantly weakens the ability to stretch testing resources through group pooling.
Cliffs: say you want to test 100 people. And say you expect that 2 people in that group are positive. The most straight forward method is to process 100 swabs individually. Alternatively you could break those 100 samples into smaller groups, like 10 groups of 10. You run 10 tests and 2 come back positive. Congratulations, youâve just cleared 80 people and you individually retest the samples from the people in the two groups that contained a positive. So, now youâve identified your two positive people, but you only processed 30 tests instead of 100. Of course, if instead of 2 positive individuals your sample population has 15 positive individuals, the grouping method doesnât work because of the high likelihood that each group will have at least one positive sample in it.
So, yeah, it would have been really nice if people couldâve just stayed away from the bars and the hair salons for a few more weeksâŚ
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By the way, I told you we were going to be buddies once the impeachment stuff was over.
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Itâs a good movie. I recognize almost every setting, though itâs a bit out of order in the film compared to real life. I also met a âcamino familyâ and I still keep in touch with them.
You have to have good shoes and socks. I was lucky, I found hiking boots that worked well and gave me no blisters. I will never forget the lady I passed while hiking up the steepest leg (up to O Cebreiro in Galicia) who was lying on a rock with feet that literally looked like raw meat. Sheâd been walking like that for weeks and never bothered to stop in one of the cities to buy new boots.
You should. Iâve done a lot of stuff, and itâs one of the best things Iâve ever accomplished. I recommend going in April or September, and taking 6 weeks off to do it right. COVID wonât kill it, either. Itâs survived the Black Death, Spanish Flu, and every other pandemic. As a warning: it will make you fall absolutely in love with Northern Spain, and youâll realize that there is so much more to that country than flamenco and paella (and Galician white wine is just as good as Rioja reds).
Mostly true, though I did pass several people who took tents along and camped when they could. This is why April or September are better. Summer is crowded and hot and youâll find yourself leaving earlier and earlier to combat the fear of not getting a bed at the next âstopâ. Fortunately, if you stay at âoffâ places (meaning the ones that arenât traditional endpoints of each leg), you should have no issues. Iâm a huge introvert, and a slow walker, and still managed fine.
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I watching this semi-doc on youtube - dos chicas - about two sisters and their trip. It seemed a bit annoying that there was almost a race every day to get spots at the next stop. Iâm not necessarily that slow or that late a riser, but I donât want all day every day to be some cut throat race for the last bed. April/September are probably the ticket.
So, whenever that stupid Plandemic video came out, one of my good friends had a troll on her FB wall that kept posting it and other crazy shit about how COVID wasnât real, and it was a conspiracy, and Bill Gates, etc. Troll went ballistic on my friend when she kept deleting the craziness.
That troll on my friendâs page? Yup, this Karen
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Bahahaha
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To some degree I wonder how much these people are mentally ill and maybe? not representative of any significant subset of the population.
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Looks like a reporting quirk. Based on this tweet and some others in the thread, it seems like OK might only report positive results on Sundays.
https://twitter.com/TyTalksTV/status/1277431478977212416?s=19