EAT THE VIRUS will be a new Trump slogan soon enough
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Yeah I’ve been thinking the same thing.
Earlier I thought the general message might be something like “Young, healthy, non-obese people get out there and get that herd immunity and stimulate the economy, everyone else keep isolating.”
Apparently that message was way too complicated and truthful. So now I think it’s more like “Here’s the information, do whatever you want, or are forced to to keep a job. Oh yeah and all you FoxNews idiots - it’s all a hoax, so go crazy.”
Speaking of masks. Whoever the RR guy is got pwned in the comments pretty good.
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Is that system different than the UC system (i.e. Pac-12 member UC-Berkeley)?
I’ve been keeping an eye on Georgia as a possible bell-weather for opening up. I think they opened up on 4/30. New hospitalizations up 115 today - most in a while - but there were super low before that so it could be a blip.
Their statistics are also rigged along w Florida and Texas once you also look at testing rates and confirmed cases. They are all monster outliers in their death rate based on their other data.
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The official GA site shows a really weird view on their chart that I suspect is being really fudged. But the site I linked gives you the raw numbers. GA’s testing rate - 8-10k/day doesn’t seem terrible. They’re staying at around 10% positive, which is a good sign.
I wish they had charts on covidtracking.com. I can’t find anything with state data that’s as good.
Here is an update on the progress of my moderate growth scenario model.
If things go as expect there should be a north turn soon. I’d love to be wrong. Opening is less open than we think? Vitamin D? Season?
I intentionally track using moving averages to try and avoid jumping at noisy data.
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It’s interesting how you can use two different assumptions coming from different angles to WAG how far GA has to go herd immunity.
Let’s say real cases are 10x confirmed cases - this is a rough ballpark figure that gets thrown around a lot and more seem to agree with. And we’ll give the benefit of the doubt that herd immunity is 60% of 10M ppl. That means GA is at 340k, or about 5% of the way to herd immunity. Maybe actual cases is 20x confirmed cases. Ok they’re 1/10th of the way to herd immunity. And those are generous assumptions.
So now let’s come from another angle and look at IFR. Let’s say IFR is .5% - which might be low for GA as they have some unhealthy people and seem to have been hit hard. That means about 300k people have already gotten this thing. Or pretty much he same result as in the first scenario. IFR goes up, the number of infected goes down.
They better hope herd immunity is actually like 40% for some weird reason. I don’t hold any stock in the idea that say 30% of them have already had it. No antibody study has borne out anything like that - just populations of healthy young adults in places like prisons and the Roosevelt.
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When America was a better country I could envision such a care package landing on every doorstep.
Of course a few of us would never open it due to concerns with the packaging… I kid
That sounded worse than doing a search, so even though I’m sure it was addressed before
Trump said China continued to allow flights from Wuhan to destinations around the world — including the U.S. — at the same time that it banned travel from Wuhan into other parts of China. That’s incorrect.
The implication was that China deliberately spread the virus worldwide while protecting their own citizens, which is apparent nonsense.
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If I am lazy, it’s the microwave. If not, it’s on foil in the oven for 10 minutes at 350.
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Lol at Disney being open in June.
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Made the rest of my Covid fish-n-chips tonight-exactly 10 min at 350. Fish and fries are two things that don’t microwave well.
(From the cheesecake fiasco- good sign I still have a sense of taste and smell).
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I thought we were looking more in the 80-85% range for herd immunity?
Yeah, you need to put that shit in an oven or toaster oven.
82% is the absolute highest I’ve heard. That would be R0 of 6 - which is like NYC or something.
Yeah that’s the number I’ve seen too.
Let’s begin voluntary human challenges of the vaccines ASAP.
Like it is amazing at the horrible things one can do to themselves but volunteering for a vaccine trial is some huge ethical boondoggle.
There was a story in the news recently where prisoners were trying to get infected for early release.
Seems like a snap call for someone in a nursing home.
Just want to reiterate again that takeout strategy should involve contactless curbside.
Pay with the app or put the cash in the trunk.
Look for places being smart - “no customers allowed inside” etc