More shit you can’t make up news:
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S.C. new record high in cases and positive percent, just barely below 20%.
Deaths and hospitalizations were flat though
If you’re going to do it, hurry the fuck up! lol
October 5th is the voter registration deadline in Florida.
Waiting for the covid death wave to open up a lot of properties and make it a buyer’s market?
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As they should be… Hospitalizations should lag positive tests by about 5-7 days, deaths should lag positive tests by about two weeks.
SC positive cases 5-7 days ago (6/20-22):
1,148
905
1,005
If the turnaround times are faster than I’m thinking, you might be a little farther out. If the positive testing data is accurate, there should be a jump of about 30-40% in hospitalizations, then a flattening back out. That’s if you’re looking at daily new hospitalizations, if you’re looking at the total number, then they should also be dropping off from about 3 weeks prior, so a bump in cases 3 weeks prior will also mask a bump in cases now in the total rate - cause there will be a bump in the discharge rate, as well.
For deaths, SC cases 12-16 days ago (6/11-15):
682
729
785
840
583
My guess would be the death toll starts to go up in 3-7 days, if my prediction of the lag time is accurate and reporting is accurate. If it does not, then it means that there is something to a lower mortality rate for now due to younger people being infected and/or a beneficial mutation and/or the reporting is bogus.
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The day club across the street is open, it looks like Lake of the Ozarks Lite. Less densely attended and more attractive people, but I still have a front row seat to a brewing outbreak that’s literally a stone’s throw away.
Anyone got a Grim Reaper costume they can lend Cuse?
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FYI I’m not trying to make any points or draw any conclusions with these posts I am just reporting bullet point data reported from my state that’s having a ton of new cases.
The most concerning part of this is the positive percent increasing which means we are going to miss a ton, which means either apocalypse or shutdown.
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You should make a giant sign offering conjugal visits for revelers who feel uncomfortable but are begrudgingly out and about only because they don’t have a seksbuddy.
Hopefully one or two of the applicant pool will be girls.
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Have you read his posts? He doesn’t need a costume.
The wife and have been planning on moving to a more central hippie area for a few years.
Now we are waiting for the market to crash and buy a house for cheap and keep our currently house intil the market recovers. Like real upper class folks.
Unfortunately the earliest would be Jan 2021. But I’ll be a lock blue vote for the midterms!
I know Cuomo put a two week quarantine on anyone traveling to NY from Florida, but who really follows that? We are going to have a resurgence here because fucking idiots are going to bring it up here. Should ban all flights from Florida, period.
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You’re the second person who’s asked me that lol, no I’m not that creepy! Yet. Give me another month of lockdown while this goes on, and I might be sneaking around the terrace with a tinfoil hat, binoculars, and a hazmat suit.
Of all the ways to get COVID-19, it’s far from the worst.
Turns out the grim reaper is a realist, not a pessimist. Maybe right now he’s an optimist, given his line of work.
Let’s hope we win this one so we have free and fair midterms!
Yeah, I mean, this is going to happen everywhere in the northeast I think. But, Pennsylvania is apparently starting to go YOLOOOOO so you might want to worry more about the neighbor halfway down the block than crazy Florida Man a few streets south of you.
Basically nobody besides island nationa does travel bans soon enough to matter. New York would have to get daily cases down to single digits to be worth doing.
One of the problems with easing travel restrictions, which I imagine will be a problem in Europe, too, is that it’s not a random sampling of the population who will travel.
So right now France has 55K active cases, give or take, out of 67 million people. So that’s like 1 in 1,200 people.
Germany is roughly 1 in 10,000.
So let’s just make it simple and say all of Europe is at 1 in 5,000. The problem is that it’s not a random selection of the population that chooses to travel. It’s the people taking the fewest precautions. So maybe it’s like the 25% being the least careful, and they probably make up like 90% of the cases. (I’m making numbers up, obviously - just trying to illustrate the concept.)
So now in reality, a passenger on a plane does not have a 1 in 5,000 chance of being sick. It’s more like .9 in 1,250, or roughly 1 in 1,400.
Throw a couple hundred people on a plane, and you’ve got almost a 15% chance of having someone be sick. Who do they interact with in the destination? Again people who are at a higher risk. They aren’t flying back with the same couple hundred people, so risk of exposure keeps getting higher and higher.
Like, conceptually, I don’t think you want the riskiest part of your population mingling with the riskiest part of someone else’s population, then bouncing back and forth. It seems bad. I could be wrong, I mean, if the alternative is just them mingling with the same 25% of your population, the main variable is just the flight. So if your precautions on flights are good and enforced strictly, maybe it’s fine.
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I’m pretty sure this study has been referenced in here, but not 100% so I wanted to post it. This link isn’t coming up as having been posted. So this shows that people who were asymptomatic lose their antibodies within 8 weeks, and 13% of people who were symptomatic lose them within 8 weeks.
This seems to roughly match my understanding of how antibodies/immunity to the common cold work, as well. We seem to know it lasts long enough to get you through the rest of cold and flu season, but not all the way to the next one.
My question for the more medically/scientifically inclined, and I know we’re guessing/speculating to a degree… If somebody gets COVID-19, develops antibodies, fends it off and then 8 weeks later loses the antibodies, then gets exposed again… Is there a significant likelihood that their immune system will be better able to fight it off this time? Like, does the immune system have something similar to what we would call “muscle memory” in developing antibodies? Is it going to be able to say, “Yep, that’s COVID-19, I know how to fight it,” or is it resetting the whole process since there were no active antibodies?
I guess in layman’s terms, is it more likely to be mild than severe in this scenario?
The follow up is, how much is that impacted by the fact that the first bout might have weakened/damaged lungs/kidneys/brain/etc?
We appear to have reached the “goddamnit, Leeroy” phase of our Leeroy Jenkins reopening in USA#1.
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Georgia new record high today.