I would so trade places with them and be trapped outside the US right now. Fuck this shithole country.
1 Like
Yea, Iām in San Juan del Sur now, itās gorgeous. Pretty tough to complain, just wish I knew how to surf.
3 Likes
The crazy thing is from what we know right now, itās really not that hard to be open for most business:
- No big events, especially indoors
- No bars
- Probably no gyms or severely altered gyms (biggest open question for me as I havenāt heard of any gym outbreaks)
- Restaurants outdoor or sparse
- Hail/nail salons with masks and shields where applicable
- Outdoor activities ok
- Just do whatever Germany is doing for meat-packing plants, factories, distribution centers, etc.
School is the other biggest question mark. But we have a couple months to put that off at least.
Itās really not that hard to stay under R0=1. But nope, not in USA. Packed bars are too essential apparently.
You were on Little Corn right? I never made it to San Juan del Sur but I heard it was a big party beach town.
Where are you getting this 10x multiplier from?
From every antibody study and a bunch more other things that always seem to triangulate on real cases being in the ballpark of 10x confirmed cases.
Man. I had a great day golfing. Had fun with a diverse assemblage of people out on the course - my foursome, the group ahead and behind.
Your time out with friends didnāt do anything much for your mood, eh?
My mood is fine. This country sucks ass.
1 Like
I dunno, boss. Seems contradictory.
You canāt open that much and stay R < 1 Iām guessing. I think indoor dining is just a no-no. Being indoors without masks seems very bad.
1 Like
And this is a politics forum, so my advocacy for less amplification of all this noise is likely to fall on deaf ears.
Yup. the town is/was the big party place, but lots of different beaches and surf spots all along the coast nearby. Really nice for renting a moto and exploring around.
I might take one of the repatriation flights back to the US one of these days (gotta get to Chicago) but they all go to Miami, which is not idealā¦
I do miss me some golf though!
Why am I seeing Banana Republic ads for a thousand, Alex.
Any states with no plans to reopen outdoor dining?
One of my theories is that when you have 50 different approaches and 50 sets of experts in governorsā ears, if you think the the approach should be more restrictive than all of them, at least consider the possibility youāre wrong.
I found a cite for this:
This assumes that everyone who really gets infected develops antibodies. But we know that isnāt so, many people are getting it without developing antibodies. 10x is probably a lower bound, the real number of actual infections is likely much higher.
Outdoor dining, spaced, with servers wearing masks, should be ok. Guests should wear masks until the food arrives. People should not be allowed to sit around drinking after their meal.
Indoor dining is just not something we should be doing without major modifications to the entire concept of dining. I saw a country in Europe or Asia allowing it, but with huge plexiglass dividers.
One of my theories is the USA really sucks at this, and I trust the rest of the developed world more. Another is that the consensus opinion here from the jump has been really on point, and Iām not alone in thinking indoor dining is a bad idea.
Also keep in mind that some places that are doing it are doing it with far more invasive and effective contact tracing.
On the other hand, the multiplier was clearly higher in March than it is now, due to testing volume. So if we donāt adjust for that, weāll overestimate total infections. From the article, it doesnāt sound as though they considered that. Maybe they did, and the reporter didnāt convey it.
I think 23M is closer to an upper bound than a lower. Maybe 15-25M, that seems reasonable.
Dude - have you not been reading this thread? Weāve triangulated on actual cases being roughly 10x confirmed cases a ton of times. When the CDC finally came out with it a few days ago it was like
6 Likes
Sure. Maybe itās 8x now. Who cares? The whole point is order of magnitude.
If weāre 13% or 11% towards herd immunity itās really not a big difference right now.
Sure, but going forward the multiplier should keep decreasing if we test well. Then again, weāre about to blow through testing capacity in some states and move it back the other way.