Isn’t that Rich Muney (sp?)?
I still think the most scientifically proven number is 82% for herd immunity. If some are naturally immune it comes down, but it seems unlikely to be drastically lower.
75% is 15.75M.
They officially have 123K, so maybe 1.2M at the most? Given that they didn’t really get going until later, they probably have identified a lot of the cases via testing. So maybe 5-8% of the way there. But at the rate they’re going… Their problem will be people freaking out over the pile of bodies soon, which will slow the rate of spread. I don’t think they can get past 30-35% of the population infected before that happens.
I think you mean many embers and a bad flu season.
Seeing the same dumbshits on social media talking about it’s just more testing and just young people driving the spike is really rich. Two months ago it was that it was just old and sick people so who cares. And also that we had all almost already had it through stealth spread.
Really drives home the point that reality does not matter one bit. No matter what happened there would be some pro-Teump pro-OPEN FOR BUSINESS nonsense.
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Let’s not forget:
“It’ll never kill 20K…”
“…30K”
“…40K”
“…50K”
“…100K”
…
Well, they’ve ignored every piece of advice about healthy living for 5 decades and they’re not going to start listening to eggheads now!
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Today’s number makes it very hard to fit this to any kind of a simple exponential. Unless today was some kind of outlier, this gets pretty ludicrous pretty quickly. I think this gets limited by the max number of people we can test per day.
Do you mean UMD’s method or mine? Mine is a rough guess based on how quickly I noticed the surge and when SDI fell below certain points, so it’s theoretically not based on population density. A higher SDI target baseline almost always is because of population density. It’s possible Tennessee only needs a 25 SDI to not spread out of control (most places have a hard time getting below 20), and I thought it would have had a higher SDI target. That means if things get bad, a minimum of restrictions would likely slow the spread again (my current biggest concern looking at the top 10 graphs is North Carolina, as they’re far below my target if it’s right which means they’re in big trouble). I haven’t looked at weighted population density in awhile, but it’s one I was planning on looking at over the next week or so to look for potential fine tuning.
Not sure if it’s useful to anyone, but I know rough test->result in two places:
Colorado: within 24 hours
Texas: generally within 4 days
That might help with some lag. Colorado has probably been this way since the big test surge, but I doubt Texas got there more than a few weeks ago. I have a friend in the Tarrant County Fire Department who has access to that data.
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“Holding steady at 50K cases a day! Working hard, thank you!”
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Title change time: COVID-19: Chapter 5 — Whoopsiedoodle.
The people have spoken: Surviving a Pandemic in a Third World Country.
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First world countries don’t hand out healthcare based on whether or not that person is rich or poor.
Cov-abungla: Riding the waves
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COVID-19: You Are On Your Own.
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Kia has a commercial on Hulu saying we won’t be flying anytime soon so go on rode trips instead.
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Next 7-10 days is going to show some REALLY nasty numbers in the death column, and who knows what the fuck will happen then. But once deaths start catching up to cases it’s going to hit hard, fast, and mean.
Yep, unless we can expand from 500K daily tests to 10 mil daily tests (fucking ludicrous idea, I know) there is no way we will ever know the full scope here.
Have we done COVID-19: RUH ROH yet?
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Covid-19: Going for the high score.