Things are dire but we are not yet Italy or in the middle of a nuclear war so I’d say Team DOOM and GLOOM has missed on a few predictions.
Trump has said he wants to send another round of Donny Dollars. He’ll do it in Sept or Oct to buy votes from rubes.
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Yeah we are. The hospital overruns were concentrated in a small part of Italy. IIRC they didn’t even spread to Milan, which is in Lombardy.
If I recall, I made a dismayed post in late April that we’re basically saying “that’s cool, we’ll just roll with 25,000 cases/day and 1,000 deaths/day as a best case scenario for the summer and hope things don’t get worse from there” and got a fair amount of agreement, and that’s pretty much exactly what came to pass.
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The YOLO states aren’t, but the rest of the world definitely is.
[quote=“commonWealth, post:8171, topic:1764, full:true”]How do vaccines factor in? If they totally stop the spread, the pressure is then to mutate the spike protein.
[/quote]
Sure. It’s just a question of whether it can do that quickly enough if there’s a massive vaccination campaign.
So Pence is just spiking the football (and not even after a meaningless score) at a random point in the game when his team is down 42-7?
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Uhhh we are a lock to be worse than Italy. Maybe jman missed on the nuclear war prediction so far but that was never a widely held DOOM AND GLOOM prediction lol.
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Right, but until we start walking around symptomatically with COVID-19 en masse, it’s not going to realize any evolutionary rewards for becoming less severe or less lethal. It can only evolve based on the current conditions it faces. It cannot predict what its evolution would lead to. Further, even if a strain evolved to be less lethal, it would still need to overtake the more lethal strain in order to get our behavior to adjust. So it would need an additional evolution in order to make it the dominant strain.
Yep, this. Trolly’s posting on COVID-19 has been consistently awful.
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It’s not even a random point. The reason he is at the podium is COVID just ground out another touchdown.
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Even in the rest of the world, it’s still spreading, it’s under more pressure than here, but not necessarily enough to force it… and again, it would have to evolve in a way to beat the lethal strain in the current conditions it faces. People will not adjust their behavior unless the dominant strain in the wild is the less lethal one. So what you really need is a mutation that makes it more contagious, which coincidentally also makes it less lethal. Which means you’re trying to luckbox the less lethal part. There is still not current evolutionary pressure on it to become less lethal.
What provides pressure to become less lethal is when the death comes quickly enough to mitigate the spread.
I would be very surprised if the US shut down again. The states that get really bad will, while the others will open up. Its virus whack-a-mole.
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I’m really curious what your explanation is for why it’s the new zoonotic diseases that are highly lethal and the ones that have been co-evolving with us for ages are not.
“Shut down again” itself is a big spectrum. Texas and FL can shut down bars and still say they’re opened up.
But really that just means what? - restaurants at half capacity, hiking and going to parks/beaches, and shopping for knick-knacks? I doubt any of those are super-spreaders and are probably fine.
Gyms though - that’s still a big open question.
No idea how anyone ever thought bars would work. 3 hours with the same people, yelling, sharing food, inhibitions going to zero - soooooo dumb.
No, like I said, they’re the “best and brighest.”
But like at the end of the day, remove the airquotes and it’s not that crazy anyway. They’re not the top 1%, but they’re the top 10% or whatever of their industry. Just turns out that 2% through 10% are still getting their asses kicked by the S&P 500. But never the less, the world at large views them as highly intelligent and listens to what they have to say.
They’d prolly just update the evite to say “Corona Virus Party!!”
Based on what? They include probable and positive Tested cases. Struggling to identify evidence for this.
Don’t get me wrong Texas and Florida are hiding shit I just have seen good transparency thus far from S.C.
You have the correct take. There are a couple of exceptions, but not many. The exceptions usually aren’t giving any directional takes unless it’s painfully obvious and not really an opinion.
I’m fine with stuff like this being open if you’re where I live, Chris lives or other posters that have a handful of cases within a few hundred mile radius.
But we all knew what would happen with Florida and Texas.