You guys were predicting 5,000 dead/day by May.
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The old people in my life are all pre-boomer and 3 out of 4 are pretty yolo. My m-in-law and her husband went out to dinner inside a restaurant the first day they could. Life long libs. Not anti-science. Her husband is 96 and grew up on a farm with like 12 siblings in Arkansas in the depression and literally ate squirrels. Definitely not Boomer-entitlement. Just yolo imo. I make sure they know I will help them if it means they donât have to go out, but you do only live once and if 96 year old thinks itâs worth it to go out to eat, Iâm certainly not dragging him out of the restaurant. He does understand the risk, probably a lot better than any of us.
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The Villages havenât been emptied out yet. Progress is also being made on a vaccine.
Who was? I certainly never made a prediction like that. I specifically said it would take 4-6 weeks to start to see an effect of reopening. I cautioned many including you from getting two weeks out from reopening and saying âsee reopening didnât have an effectâ.
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Are you saying the pressure is being mitigated or that it doesnât exist at all? Iâm agree with the first part. Although even then, if successful vaccines get rolled out, that sort of tears down the theory.
I would say team science and team math have been right so far. The fact that we overlap with doom and gloom is just happenstance.
I obviously concur on the lack of pressure for this thing to attenuate itâs morbidity. The high latent transmission and low lethality are perfect just the way it is. Lethality has room to get more severe without slowing spread.
*it could attenuate but there is not the pressure for it ala a more deadly virus that is harder to transmit.
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I mean I think being 96 adds a whole extra yolo element into everything. Itâs still not good because he could infect a bunch of people on his way out, but I can understand wanting to just enjoy yourself because you could very well shuffle off this mortal coil while youâre busy sitting at home obediently social distancing, too.
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Yet needs heavy emphasis in this sentence.
96 does make that clear, but I think my 80yo m-in-law and 77 year old mother feel similarly. My 80 yo f-in-law otoh is being extremely careful.
Who?
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Plenty of people go to work and school with the flu while symptomatic.
Lots of focus on TX, AZ, and FL but things here in LA County are still bonkers and lots of people eating in restaurants etc. One out of 400 people here either has or did have the virus. Local article said that if you go about your normal business on a typical day youâre going to have contact with someone who is infected.
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Right now, itâs probably non-existent or low enough to be negligible. Weâre doing nothing to effectively slow down the lethal strains, so why would a less lethal strain beat them out? Unless it also mutated to spread faster.
How do vaccines factor in? If they totally stop the spread, the pressure is then to mutate the spike protein.
I better add LA County to the local deep-dive for Sunday night/Monday AM.
Pretty sure I was talking specifically about Germany and NYC, and certainly there hasnât been a 4-week spike after reopening as was predicted. I donât remember exactly who made the 5,000/day prediction. There are too many hot takes for me to keep track of them all.
Sure, because we donât perceive the flu to be something we should take precautions against. If the flu evolved into some crazy lethal virus, our behavior would change.
If we did nothing then 5,000/day, we did hit 3,000 when you consider the exponential nature of the math is not too bad. Jfc Trolly, display a tiny bit of paying attention to what people actually said instead of gotcha snippets. I often vomit a wall of text trying to narrowly define what I mean and how certain I am.
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Weâre going to have to do another shut down. Congress isnât going to pass more stimulus (at least not in the form of money to actual human beings who need it). Iâm super pessimistic moving forward.
Are they really the best and brightest? Iâve always been of the mindset that if anyone actually has good information about finance and investing, they sure as shit ainât saying it on TV, so the people on TV are just loud bloviators who donât know shit.
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No worries. Ponies are for lolz only.
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