The WH forecasting model demands Michigan OPEN FOR BUSINESS despite anticipating a 67% increase in nationwide deaths by August 1. Their main claim that they’re actually doing okay? They don’t have as many people dying as Indiana and Ohio. A humblebrag if I ever heard one.
In fact, the IHME predicts both Ohio and Indiana will have more coronavirus deaths in June and July than Michigan. It’s forecasting about 700 deaths during that two-month period in Ohio and almost 1,400 in Indiana as states move to reopen their economies.
In all, the IHME model is predicting Michigan will have a total of 6,517 deaths by Aug. 1. That’s a 42% increase compared to the current total.
The IHME model is projecting that Ohio will see its death toll more than double from 1,360 to 2,940 by Aug. 1, and Indiana will see a 165% increase to from 1,540 to 4,091.
Nationally, the model is projecting 137,184 deaths across the U.S. by Aug. 1, a 67% increase from the current total.
Ugh. Lived in the Lansing area most of the 80s and 90s. Meijer similar to a Walmart with a full grocery, though they had the full grocery going back to the 70s. “One stop shopping”.
Johnny, I really like your posting and don’t mean to pile on, but maybe I can help explain the consensus opinion.
People need food. The only thing we can control is how we get that food, and those options are pretty limited. Let’s look at a few.
Option one would be to grow and produce all our food independently from the outside world. This option would be very safe, but it’s not remotely feasible.
Option two is to get it from the grocery supply chains. Using this vector carries risk, whether you shop for yourself, have it delivered, whatever. Your food will come into contact with several people that could potentially be infectious before it gets to you, and that is beyond your control.
Option three is to get cooked meals from takeout/delivery. Another risky option. Your food will come into contact with several people that could potentially be infectious before it gets to you, and that is beyond your control.
Your take is that option 3 carries vastly more risk than option 2, the only two options really available to the masses. I think that most would agree that option 3 is riskier, but most believe it is likely riskier only by a minuscule amount, if it is at all, which is not certain. I’m using the assumption that if my likelihood of getting the virus in the next month is 4.2% if I never get takeout, it would be 4.3% if I get takeout once a week, at most. I think where the disagreement comes in is that you think that 4.3% number should be much higher, maybe 6%? I don’t think that’s a reasonable assessment of the risks.
My mom lives alone in another city. She has been isolating for two months and is pretty lonely. I’ve been isolating for the same but have been to grocery store once a week and a few fast food runs.
How risky would it be for me to visit her for one night this weekend? She is high risk due to health and age but is also having a hard time alone so long.
Not very risky but obviously increases her risk. You guys could always mask up social distance and do a patio meetup and then drive home if you want to be most safe while still providing some comfort.
I got takeout once a day as way safer than groceries once a week. While acknowledging that smear transmission is possible, everyone is saying the main risk is close contact. You’re getting within 6 feet of WAY more people and the customer service you deal with also deals with way more people.
@Clovis8, I broke quarantine for Mothers Day and 2 birthday parties with the same 3 people.
