This makes sense. Like R0 it is probably a highly qualified and situation specific variable.
It’s probably more accurate to this of a “herd immunity effect” being stronger and stronger as the immune population grows. It would stand to reason that you get a lot more mileage out of the effect if the disease spreads slowly over time throughout the population, and not quickly.
Not least because if COVID is spreading very slowly due to social distancing or other mitigation factors, the amount of herd immunity effect needed to push the Rt below 1 is going to be proportionately a lot smaller than if it’s growing like wildfire.
A whole bunch of PGA tour players or their caddies have tested positive. If a sport without teammates and where you’re outside without having any physical contact yields at least 5 positive tests in the three weeks it’s been back, there are going to tons of positives for a sport like basketball.
Unless the leagues just say screw it because the money involved for everyone is too great, I don’t see how there’s professional sports this summer.
“As a Tour, we continue to learn from an operational standpoint and are making several adjustments.”
Those adjustments include the following:
• Going forward, those who travel via the tour-procured charter will be subject to the arrival testing procedures (nasal swab), in addition to the pre-charter test.
• Player instructors will be added to the on-site testing protocol (i.e. “the bubble”).
• Beginning next week, the tour-sponsored fitness trailer will be on-site in an effort to further control the environment where players interact (i.e. you would be discouraged from going to off-site gyms., etc.); additionally, all occupants of the fitness trailer will be required to wear a face covering for the entirety of their time in the trailer.
• The tour’s stipend policy has been updated to specify that a player will not be eligible if he has tested positive for COVID-19 after not following the safety protocols outlined in our Participant Resource Guide.
Maybe they’ve been going to local gyms or something.
Sharing locker rooms at the golf clubs could be another. They are often in trailers that are set up for multiple things including signing and handing in their scorecards. Not to mention drinking together in a bar every single night.
If the PGA has a separate fitness trailer hopefully they’re also being smart about locker rooms and trying to limit contact.
I don’t understand this infatuation every pro sports league seems to have with locker rooms, like they’re some sacrosanct integral part of the game. It’s fucking golf, you don’t need to get undressed and shower with other men. Sign your scorecards outside. Gahhhh.
The problem for the PGA Tour is you have caddies completely outside the bubble and different players each week. Caddies are knuckleheads to begin with, they were surely out in the Hilton Head bars last week. Furthermore, tons of guys are traveling via commercial aircraft.
The players use the club’s locker rooms almost always. The members have to vacate their lockers usually a month or more in advance of the tour arriving while they modify it for the pros.
Edit: I should add some clubs that are regular tour stops might choose to have their own separate locker rooms for tour events.
I’ve been in a few of the locker rooms of the nice private clubs in Toronto and they almost all have bar service with draught and bottled beer, wines, and liquor in the locker rooms. I’ve never been in them while the bar was operating though.
Right, and apparently if the players can’t have the perk of lounging around in the club locker room before and after the round each day - no golf. That’s just how it works, can’t change it, even for covid.
Might as well just be one of up plebes who drives up to the club, takes our clubs out of the trunk, plays a round, and goes home. The horror.
They should be required to fly on the PGA charter, and a huge LOL at all these leagues that think they can get away with only having players and coaches in the bubble. Like COVID is going to be all, well you guys bubbled up pretty good there, so I’ll give you a pass on this nutritionist you’re not testing and didn’t isolate with you.
I mean when you have Monday Qualifying still you can’t guarantee everyone a spot on the PGA plane. Brooks’ brother Monday qualified at a local club on Monday to play in the tournament starting tomorrow. The PGA tour really did a shitty ass job of even trying to keep this as a “bubble”.
I know I keep beating this horse, but I really think the better strategy than these semi-permeable bubbles - is just to treat the tour like a little league soccer game.
The goal should be to be outside the whole time, with basically zero chance of catching covid from anyone other than your caddy. Golf is a no-contact, spread out, mostly individual outdoor game - which should make it super safe. It just cannot be that hard to limit contact among the players and officials.
It’s especially tricky if we account for a large segment of population staying the fuck home this removing themselves from the pool. So may be we an earlier (lower) herd effect. That 40 does t seem to fit with standard epidemiology so without looking in detail I’m treating it with a huge grain of salt.