COVID-19: Chapter 4 - OPEN FOR BUSINESS

I’m guessing it’s day-to-day variance combined with not enough tests to go around. I’ve read reports on how people are waiting in lines for 12 hours to get a test.

I thought we had the best testing! FAKE NEWS!

My thoughts there were to maybe try indoors once on a non busy day, but do most of my eating outdoors and tskeout.

This is what’s called the innate immune system. I’ve been spitballing for a while that maybe a strong innate response explains a lot of the weird things we’re seeing with antibody testing results.

This is interesting, but the sample is small enough that it’s not really clear that their T-cell test really outperforms the antibody tests. It’s also not clear to me that the T-cell test is as cheap and scalable as current antibody testing. It’s also my understanding that T-cell responses are not as long-lasting as antibody responses, so this sort of response is unlikely to provide long term immunity, even if it does offer some protection for now.

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The virus only has to win once.

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They thought about it and decided it would be extremely bad and you’re upset because you think they shouldn’t have even had a discussion about this? My god, I’m glad I don’t work in this field, the level of nitpicking that goes into every statement they make is crazy.

NBC News is reporting that the White House is going to end federal support for COVID test sites at the end of the month, and encourage states to create public-private partnerships for their testing. There are 13 of these sites right now, apparently, and seven of them are in Texas.

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I’m not sure if I’m ponied on this, but it looks to be a pretty rigorous and moderately alarming analysis of hospital bed projections in Houston.

How does this square with cuse’s model?

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So literally trump trial ballooned restricting testing access then did it, right under our noses.

The difficulty of getting tests in AZ right now is alarming. Hopefully that’s just anecdotal; the media should be all over this shit.

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What does trying indoors once mean? You’ve presumably eaten indoors hundreds/thousands of times in your life so you know what it’s like.

You just feeling like playing a less dangerous version of Russian Roulette?

Either you just go YOLO and eat indoors whenever you want or you don’t eat indoors bc it’s respiratory and small indoors places are bad for that.

Trying it once is odd.

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If I showed my mom this story I swear to god she would invent some reason on the spot to support not spending money on coronavirus testing as a principled fiscal conservative. Her take away would not be “they’re trying to hide the numbers and don’t care if you and your family die for the economy as long as it gets trump re-elected” and she would always have been for states rights to decide how they want testing done in their own communities.

Keep in mind I’m doing Houston projections by using Harris County’s official numbers, not my full model… I’m not trying to guess their occupancy since it’s publicly available. That said, I had them at 3.5-7 days as of the 6/22 numbers, the low end of the range was a 2.2 R0 I think, the high end was over 4, those were based on their case numbers of late.

It’s kind of cool how the federal rallying cry (as seen even yesterday with the House hearing) is that testing capacity has SHOT THROUGH THE ROOF, but really that’s all because the states are vastly expanding capacity and the federal support hasn’t been that great (lol 13 testing sites being closed down is like, absolutely nothing).

So, they claim huge testing increases (that they had little to do with) as evidence of their top-notch response to COVID-19, while taking shots at the Democrat governors who actually put together all the testing that they are bragging about.

Cool.

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So it may not provide lasting immunity. But couldn’t this mean that future infections could be more like a common cold versus a possibly deadly disease? Like even people who now generated antibodies may immediately progress to a T-cell response on the second infection due to some “memory”?

New record for Oklahoma today in addition to Florida so far. North Carolina is just barely below theirs.

What I thought was interesting was the apparent implication that some people have some degree of exposure without going on to develop an infection. If it’s just random chance (i.e., these family members happened to get a very light exposure from their sick family member), then it doesn’t mean much. But if, for whatever reason, there’s a substantial fraction of people whose immune systems are just good at fighting COVID, then those people would be less susceptible to infection, even if not as a direct result of prior infection.

The only reasonable conclusion is that Trump rallies cure Coronavirus.

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My boy Brogdon tested positive. LOLNBA

https://twitter.com/FantasyLabsNBA/status/1275831999677243398?s=20

From what I’ve read every little bit of existing herd immunity helps slow the spread as long as there’s a second wave. So say NYC at 20% herd immunity might go slower if they have a second wave in the winter. If it’s just one big continuous first wave, then the virus can actually overshoot herd immunity.

Also like everything with covid there are a million other potential confounding variables - like behavior differences between the first and second wave, the most vulnerable (bus drivers who live with 6 family members, etc) already being hit.