https://twitter.com/fred_guttenberg/status/1274851916552589314?s=21
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I hope it goes well for you. We had to start sending my son back to daycare for 2 days a week at the beginning of June and itās been okay so far.
Theyāre FINALLY making parents and staff wear masks starting this week and weāre in AZ. Weāre pretty nervous about all of this and donāt really have a choice. If they donāt extend the PUA my lady has to go back to work in about a month and heāll be in daycare 4 days a week.
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Maybe I am missing something but testing capacity itself hasnāt changed much in the last month, has it? More people are just seeking tests?
The 7DMA has increased from 22,000 to over 27,000 in just the last 7 days. Iām not sure how that can be attributed to testing capacity. Now if you want to compare April to June numbers testing capacity certainly matters a lot. When you are comparing June 14th to June 21st I donāt think it matters at all.
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What are you responding to, specifically?
My previous post about why the death rate appears so low right now is just about explaining why there is a visibly different trajectory in the circles in the two charts below:
Many people look at this and have the reaction that the disease has become less of a threat. Iām arguing that over the duration of the red circle on the left, we got much more effective at identifying positive cases, so it stands to reason youāll see a declining fatality rate if weāre detecting more cases than we used to.
The spike on the right is another matter entirely. It absolutely has nothing to do with testing capacity.
Thanks, yeah mainly itās a pain cause you have to go looking for separate sources on all of it. Iāve been thinking about making that change, Iāve just been too lazy since it doesnāt change the accuracy/value of it.
Hopefully, but with the R0 as high as it is there, an improvement might just get it down to like 1.4, which will help a little but not nearly enough.
This is worse than it may seem at first glance.
Scenario A: A hospital has 100 beds, 80 are used, 20 of which are COVID patients.
Scenario B: A hospital has 100 beds, 80 are used, 30 of which are COVID patients.
Both are experiencing COVID growth of 10% per day, but in Scenario A the covid patients need to go from 20 to 40 to hit capacity (9 days). In Scenario B, they need to go from 30 to 50 (6.5 days).
I have only been tracking it like this for a week or so, so I donāt have that data on hand. The hospitalization rate does seem to vary somewhat. Itās hard to say exactly, but my guess is the size of the elderly/at risk population is the big driver in that.
From looking at the data alone, yes. Some leaders are saying that these cases are skewing younger, though, and thus they donāt expect a lot of death. Of course the public is not privy to that data, soā¦ weāll see.
Trump is also a notorious germaphobeā¦ but he was out working the rope line in Florida like April or May, if I recall. I think thereās a significant chance heās either had it or gotten some kind of vaccine. It seems plausible that heād get one of the manufacturers to include him in the trial if he wanted toā¦
Lifelong germaphobe, 74 years old, with multiple comorbidities, having maskless luncheons with members of Congress, raw dogging the rope line with randoms in Florida, and basking in the exhalation of the unwashed masses** at an indoor rallyā¦ Something doesnāt add up.
** Well, you know, there were a few people.
Where are you seeing this?
Houston is from someone that lives there. Personal anecdote.
https://twitter.com/dwuhlfelderlaw/status/1275095890064261120?s=21
Can someone remind me what the āIā and āCā stand for?
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So only the patients in the Intensive Care Unit that require intensive care, got it.
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Shenanigans could be a bigger factor in the hospitalization and death tolls than even we think.
George Orwell was essentially Nostradamus.
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He probably means the really intensive care unit.
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It was more in response to all the chatter in the media and from Trump and Co. than anyone in this thread.
A weird subtlety of living in this age of Orwellian propaganda is being legitimately unable to discern whether this is simply a meaningless administrative clarification or something substantial and devious.
I suppose thatās sort of the point.
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lol, my Orwell reference was made before I even saw your post.
If I had to guess itās going to get translated into patients who are in an ICU who have had a diagnosis of COVID and certain procedures done, which is course is dumb, and just messing with the statistics
Here on the coast it was cool, but very windy and rainy forcing more people indoors. Tourist restaurants w indoor seating were all on waits.
Iāve a friend whoās a nurse in Austin, apparently theyāre seeing a rise in hospitalisations thatās alarming and she was just on a strategy call about possibly setting up triage tents. She said that after the opening they expected a rise but so far it is worse than theyād feared. For her sake, (and the rest of you, I suppose,) I hope what looks obvious in fact isnāt.
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You had me curious so I looked at our hospital networkās admit count. Peak in March was around 65 or so a day. It then plateaus pretty much around 40 to 50. Last week 150 peak with about 110 daily average
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Horry County SC is popping off the charts but no one cares here. TR from antibody test:
My gf & I went to DrsCare. Nobody was in the lobby and had 6-8 minutes of paper work. We had masks as did the chech in girl. They told us to wait in the car and we returned 12 minutes later
Qucky blood tests for both but the nurse was wearing her mask around her neck. Otw out the door there were 3 people waiting 2/3 w masks. The one hold out was a bearded rough neck. Parked next to us leaving was a pick up w a trump sticker. U canāt make this shit up.