Excellent work. He to be a fair bit of effort to get the county level hospital detail.
If you take some example cases and convert your days to capacity to predicted dates you can more easily track the consistency over time. (So if you have 14-21 days out from today you’d have July 6-13). Of course you will need to note the R0 trend and any changes to overall capacity. Houston, Orlando, Tucson, Phoenix May be good to start?
How many black people do you see?
As a golfer in Western NY I can report that things are getting a bit dicier for us crazy ones.
Initially it was all pay remotely, individual carts, masks for employees (though I never really saw any more than myself and one or two patrons with masks).
This weekend cart sharing was enforced, and the last course I played was back to adding random singles/pairs to unfilled groups.
Regular removable flagsticks seem to be back at many as well.
I still deem this pretty low risk, if you are sharing a cart with someone in your bubble, and theres a decent chance you can successfully pitch a fit if you get grouped with randoms. My guess is probably, but there has been a sharp turn over the past two weeks or so vis a vis the normies “humoring” us crazies.
I’m predicting S.C. to have a bit of plateau this week. Last week we had a cool snap that encouraged a lot of people to stay outdoors. Outdoor spread has more or less been discounted as a thing so hopefully this will help get the situation a bit more under control.
Hospital utilization is holding steady although Covid patients are now utilizing more and more bed space, In guessing more elective procedures are being cancelled (although anecdotally I’m hard pressed to find anyone taking this seriously that wasn’t doing so all along)
I don’t follow this thread religiously, so apologies if this has been posted. But this EMT’s tale of his experiences working during the pandemic hit me hard - and also managed to underscore the structural ills that are partially responsible for Covid ravaging the US. It’s a fairly long read, but worth it.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/06/21/paramedic-new-york-city-coronavirus/?arc404=true
This is brutal.
Thanks for posting. One of the most poignant articles I’ve read this year.
Love the charts.
Not sure if you have this data at hand, but has the deaths/hospitalization rate changed much since a few months ago? Also, does that vary much by state?
Based on your analysis - do you think we’re going to have a big spike in deaths in the coming week in the states on your ugly list?
Headline of the Charleston paper today. Facepalm. If a bunch of former poker players on an internet message board can figure it out, maybe, oh, the Governor of a state could take a shot?
I think another factor in the declining death rate while the number of new cases has flatlined is that we’re likely capturing a greater and greater percentage of actual infections over time.
As of May 1, antibody tests implied NY State had a 12.3% infection rate (or around 2,450,000 infections). At the time, there were 308,000 confirmed COVID cases. So they were picking up around 12.5% of cases.
Between May 1 and June 13, antibody tests imply a further 1.1% of the state population was infected (or around 250,000 infections). During that period, about 80,000 cases were confirmed. During this time period, they have picked up over 30% of cases.
Similar story over the rest of the country, to one degree or another.
The death rate per confirmed case has fallen about 50-70% since the beginning of May, nationwide. And I think most of it can be explained by the fact that a COVID case is 2-3 times more likely to be confirmed now than in April.
#4 is also really important. Olds with comorbidities are scared af. We must stress that always, and qualify any major improvements in the death rate with that fact, lest these olds will feel okay coming out of their shells before some major change in COVID’s characteristics has been confirmed.
JonnyA’s questions about deaths/hospitalization rate are important.
This is insane unless Trump and Pence have both had it secretly.
https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1275063285264420872?s=21
I concur on the testing but clearly it’s not the major component when then percent positive is rising so fast as well unless the testing is incredibly targeted (like early days when it was so restricted).
There is clearly something going with hospitals by anecdotal reporting. Houston has put its staff on emergency rotation. Arizona hospital system articles pop up.
Oh, I don’t mean to say testing explains anything that has occurred in June.
But it could explain why there was a drop in fatality over the course of May while the number of confirmed cases was basically flat. This is to counter the derp notion that “gee, COVID just doesn’t seem as deadly as it used to be, the number of deaths has been going down for two months!”
A big part of the reason it has been going down for two months is that the number of infections had in all probability declined dramatically, while at the same time we got much better at confirming COVID cases. 25k cases per day on April 15 was a much different animal than 25k cases/day on June 1.
Thus the death rate has been improving for months. But there is cause for extreme skepticism that this will continue if cases start an exponential growth phase.
Wouldn’t it be awesome if Trump ordered them to stop doing so much testing because he has had it already, even though Pence hasn’t yet?
Brad wishing Trump gets the Rona just so he can bail on the rally?
This makes a ton of sense to me. Another maybe minor contributing factor is that perhaps the virus has already claimed a lot of the most vulnerable in nursing homes and care facilities. And/or those facilities have gotten a little better at protecting their most vulnerable patients.
NJ NY and PA were actively putting covid patients INTO nursing homes from the hospital initially. I guess they somehow assumed magically that nursing homes would have procedures in place.
I think the fact that nursing homes are more vigilant is a huge factor. And one which shows devastating lack of national leadership.
Well, I just took the kids to daycare for the first time since March.
And Santa Clara county is trending in the wrong direction. We’re testing more, so the positive rate still looks decent, but if the testing isn’t leading to behavioral changes, then you just get a really well measured pandemic that kills a ton of people.
My parents have been with us this whole time, and we pretty much have to let them go home and take a break, even for a week or two, but it seems almost certain we’re going to have to lock down again for one reason or another, either the county pro-actively closes down again, or day care closes due to a family getting sick, or something.
This shit sucks, and we’re nowhere close to being done with it.
Guess we’re still drawing live to President Pelosi.
