Amy something or other? My former friend who I am no longer speaking to knew her, pretty sure she went to Syracuse a few years before we did.
I’m amazed that they’re doing the bubble but not including the staff. Amazingly stupid.
1 Like
I think Georgia is an outlier among red states because the community has taken it seriously.
There are still many, many restaurants that won’t let you in the front door, even though they’ve been legally allowed to for almost two months. And mask compliance is night and day better than what I’ve heard from other places.
However, Georgia is backsliding. Creeping up towards 1,000 cases/day 7DMA. Less urgent than Alabama and South Carolina, but still concerning.
1 Like
Likely because they are cheap. To bubble staff, you’d have to give them free room and likely boarding. Would mean you’d have to open more restaurants and bring in even more staff to handle that. You may say NBA is rich and wouldn’t care, but they are already making the players pay to bring in their families so cost is a concern.
Amy Lawrence
I have several people that are blue state transplants to GA. Sure that helps.
Not sure if this is out of your scope (maybe @Danspartan is interested?), but I think it would be really enlightening to see a backward projection of true New York infection rates in March/early April when testing was limited. You can’t currently do an apples-to-apples comparison of the outbreaks in FL/AZ/elsewhere to New York, because the ramp-up in NYC reflects both the actual increase in infections and the testing ramp-up.
Wow, shocked at that last sentence. Wow.
The Texas site is working for regional hospital usage data. I currently project Houston overflow in 25 days, Dallas in 32. Houston R0 is 1.24, Dallas is 1.22. If the R0’s there got up to 1.5, it would cut their runway in half. But so far they seem to be holding relatively steady between 1.18 and 1.25.
What’s interesting, though, is that Dallas hospital bed capacity has expanded 5% since I updated these last time - maybe 3 days ago. Houston has expanded 2%. So it appears they are surging capacity already, which is so far offsetting the increased cases there.
When you subtract the non-COVID beds from the capacity, COVID patients take up 33% of remaining beds in Dallas and 39% in Houston. This is really the number that matters, because we are measuring the exponential growth in COVID cases, not overall patients - heart attacks and cancer aren’t growing exponentially.
My guess is that at some point they will wind down non-COVID bed usage by eliminating elective surgery and non-urgent care. I may start tracking these things, as it will give a good idea what at least a somewhat competent state can do, and may provide some insight into further modeling the hospital crunches.
Among red states who’s approach is to open up and let her rip, Texas so far seems to be the most transparent and competent by a wide margin. If you’re going to let it burn through, you want to be expanding capacity early and continuously and putting out the full data on what’s going on.
I’ll throw it on my list that I may or may not get too.
We are heading down for an outdoor lunch in Rehoboth DE and some outdoor time.
Would love to hear a trip report, this could be something that’s in play to do with my parents if there isn’t a big crowd and distancing is observed and there’s some goodmask usage! I’d probably be inclined to pack a lunch, but if the boardwalk isn’t too crowded during the daytime on a Friday, maybe I can meet them down there on a weekday to hang out outside for a picnic. My Mom loves being near the ocean.
Will be a TR. however we got a later start than I planned and we agreed to and now there is traffic still in PA. Plus we had to stop at Starbucks and we have to stop and get gas in DE because it’s cheaper.
Storm is a commin up from DC and MD so the whole TR may be sat in car two hours, ate fish n chips in car creating a smell that will last weeks and then two hours back driving thru a thunder storm.
3 Likes
Florida’s new cases jumped another 20 percent today, from 3200 new cases to 3800 cases. That’s definitely exponential growth. Meanwhile, they’re reopening all their tourist attractions so people are going to fly this all over the country. Florida now is NY in March, it’s going to drive the outbreak throughout the country. Also, Miami might be fucked.
2 Likes
Also, positive test rate in Florida is up up up every day as well, now up to 12 percent.
umm yeah that does not look good
Cuomo giving his last daily coronavirus briefing today.
1 Like
The chart is missing the most recent data, where cases again rose 20 percent day over day. I think we’re at the cases doubling every 3 days or so mark right now in Florida. Seems pretty terrible.
1 Like
We are absolutely headed directly to the worst of all worlds scenario. We’re going to take max economic damage, max casualties, and there’s no end in sight. If this doesn’t blow the GOP completely up I’m done with US politics… I’ve got better things to invest my time in than lost causes.
More likely than not it’s time to jetison the shithole states from the Union. This crisis clearly demonstrates that we can’t count on them to see reason when the chips are down. They’re an anchor dragging the rest of the nation down and seriously endangering our status as a developed nation much less a super power.
EDIT: Like my whole life there’s never been a moment where bipartisan non political was more clearly needed and expected than coronavirus. Literally any other president and any other political party in American history (the 2008-2020 GOP is pretty fucking different than the previous iterations) would have immediately done the right things in this spot… but clearly we can’t count on that even in the case of a mega catastrophic event. That’s really the point where all question of staying at the negotiation table leaves me honestly. The way you deal with people like this is that you don’t. This is one of my core beliefs and it’s a hill I’d happily die on. I know I’m right, so that’s a bit like saying I’m willing to hold a fully manned sixteenth century star fort vs a stone age tribe with half as many fighters as my fort. Not only am I going to win in this spot, I’ll probably come out totally unscathed. They’ll probably die of smallpox before they even get around to trying their first assault.
7 Likes
I’m really curious about what Disney World is going to do. Current plans are for them to reopen mid-July, but these recent Florida numbers make that plan seem absolutely nutso. But if they come out and announce “Never mind, we’re staying shut”, that’s likely to trigger pandemonium.