COVID-19: Chapter 4 - OPEN FOR BUSINESS

NY just did another antibody study with 12,000 participants

On the topic of ā€œantibody tests suckā€, the percentage in several areas went down.

The official terminology here is

Darwin award nominee

Only the dead can actually win the award.

#FACTSMYTWIN

And what do we think will possibly stop the rate of growth this time? It seems masks are less and less common and more and more people are going full YOLO. The growth back in March got stopped through shutdowns. If we arenā€™t going to do that again, dipshits wonā€™t wear masks and we are going to pack college football stadiums in 2 months explain how this slows down anytime soon.

So basically NY is what 1/3-1/4 of the way to herd immunity (assuming that is a thing)? Seems pretty bad tbh considering it cost 30,000 lives to get to that point and really emphasizes why just going full blower to herd immunity is really dumb.

Also the worse possibility (than just inaccurate testing) on why there are areas with less positive antibody tests now would be that antibodies donā€™t last very long. Hopefully it is the testing issue and not that.

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Definitely doesnā€™t hurt! Other places with similar population densities are getting rocked though, and we did essentially nothing to mitigate here šŸ¤·

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At least weā€™re making progress on the treatment front. Assuming that weā€™re going to full bore YOLO this, which at this point is pretty obvious, trying to figure out how to control the spread may be effectively over. How bad this is going to get is going to get settled by how many of the infected die.

No doubt. The news today about dexamethasone is a positive development. That being said the study shows that it saves about 12% of people on ventilators and 4% of people on oxygen. That is going to save probably tens of thousands of lives but in the grand scheme of things is far from any kind of a solution. It will put a small dent in the number of fatalities though and if we can find enough of those types of things we might get somewhere.

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Thatā€™s probably how this is going to get settled unfortunately. One small incremental improvement at a time. The best reason to try to avoid infection at this point as long as possible personally is that it gets you further along the treatment effectiveness curve.

I unfortunately suspect that the worst possible time to get COVID is probably about to happen over the next 2-3 months. A lot of people are going to die teaching our medical people how to treat this right.

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USA #1

https://twitter.com/greenhousenyt/status/1272958447986839554?s=21

https://twitter.com/greenhousenyt/status/1272962778207313921?s=21

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Just what a grieving family needs. More people to die.

@Trolly can you please post this in the COVID thread in the Lounge on CP?

Iā€™m shadow-thread-banned from that one - meaning Iā€™m read only but if I post in it they banish me to the romper room.

lol how did you get banned? Iā€™ve been trying to get banned from there for years.

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Just that thread. I made a joke (very early on) about wouldnā€™t it be funny if Trump was a super-spreader. They let me back in on the promise I not post.

Right-wingers get basically multiple direct warnings before they get banned. And a couple posters like Pete just gunk up the thread with exact right wing positions w/o stepping over the line. I never got one direct warning.

You know how to embed a tweet right? You have to use share embed on twitter and paste the whole thing. Should work to just embed the second tweet.

I would chalk the decreases up to sampling error given the relatively small number of observations when you get down to those geographic errors.

Update: casino closed due to hitting the newly reduced capacity.

Die for your market overlord!

Something else to consider is that if you and your wife are going to wear masks and not get too physically close to others than your presence there may seem more like a formality vs. being in the trenches with the Covidiots.

Sounds like it would be smart to skip the trip and maybe make a very generous donation towards the expenses, or towards the after-funeral food and drink costs, etc.

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I live in Horry County S.C. ( hotspot ) and have no idea how DHAC went from our current climbing pace to ~ 40-50 % case reduction, then predicts a jump to 3200 next week?

Lab techs on vacation maybe so tests wonā€™t be processed as quick? Iā€™m going to email SCDHAC, they have been timely getting back to me but not w the content Iā€™ve asked for.

Is there a source I can see my county s cases per day and possibly w tests per day lined up in easy to read format or do I have to go back day by day and do it myself?