My FIL is having open heart surgery on Thursday in Florida. MIL has been here in quarantine in SC since mid March but is driving down tomorrow to be with him. Not gonna lie I am kinda worried
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Good luck and take it easy for the next few days while he recovers etc, its a worrying period, my dad is in recovery mode atm, 2 stents after a rather worrying heart attack 6 weeks ago.
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Nationally, things are holding steady as the recovering states balance out the YOLO states like Florida. Projecting weâll have 2,470,000 cases after two weeks.
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https://twitter.com/chrislhayes/status/1272909442527506433?s=20\
Erika Crisp has been short of breath for several days and has tested positive for COVID-19.
So have more than a dozen of her friends.
The one thing they all had in common: a night out at Lynchâs Irish Pub on June 6 in Jacksonville Beach.
Crisp, a 40-year-old health care worker from Jacksonville, said sheâs been sick for eight days, and 15 of her friends have also tested positive for COVID-19.
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Is there another way for your family to honor the loss that feels commensurate to the trip itself? I lost a close cousin of mine to a car wreck when she was 17. In your situation I would either go, pay a significant portion of the funeral costs, or set up some sort of memorial fund/scholarship/etc.
Your cousinâs family absolutely deserve to be honored and supported. But you deserve to have some agency in how you choose to do that.
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Having a couple of miles between each resident probably helps.
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Rochester NY area. Pretty much Canada compared to NYC haha, but yeah multiple vehicles.
Using the 14-day over 14-day method, their R0 is .9. However, and itâs a big however, they have a massive spike in the first 14 days on May 27. My guess is that they cleared out a backlog, and thus itâs distorting the data in a small data set. If you use the 7-day over 7-day data, the R0 there is 4.56. If you remove the likely data dump on 5/27, it would be 1.1. So the best guess is that itâs somewhere in between there, and statewide is 1.46.
I estimate approximately 234 total active cases in Santa Rosa County, including asymptomatic. However, the confidence interval on that would be pretty wide. Thatâs 1 in 787 people there. Even at an RO of 4.56, about 1 in 155 people in the county would have it by Sunday.
The problem is, if you run into a random person on the street, the odds they have it are substantially higher, because some percentage of the 155 are probably mostly staying home, and youâre unlikely to be running into them.
The main risk is the funeral itself, if itâs indoors and people are hugging and such. If people started singing, Iâd run. You start putting 25, 50, or more people in a room⌠The odds someone has it get significant.
If I went, my goal would be to spend only one night in an AirBNB, and my goal would be to do so in as safe of a county as possible (Johns Hopkins has a county level map with case density). I would not get into a car with anyone other than you and your wife. Iâd drive down the day before, get the AirBNB wherever I decided was safe, drive to the funeral the next day, and then drive home straight through. Share the driving, nap in the car, etc.
Obviously N95âs are mandatory for the funeral and for any trips into restrooms.
Your biggest risks other than the funeral itself are going to be wherever you sleep, restrooms, and getting food. Iâd pack as much as I could, and I wouldnât go into a restroom to piss.
But ultimately, I still probably wouldnât go.
Appreciate the perspective. Wifeâs other sibling is married to someone very at-risk and has two small children. She has decided not to attend (no surprise there). We are generally allied with her on most family things, so perhaps this will give my wife some cover. I also appreciate the suggestion on some other non-travel way to honor the memory of her cousin. Iâll float that as well.
Anyhow, this is just one dumb example of what everyone else in the country has to deal with, not trying to attention whore. The big takeaway for me is how the lack of any sort of mature leadership from the federal government has left everyone to just fend for themselves with life-or-death decisions. And we are all far too stupid to expect this to work well.
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Sure thing. Yeah it sounds like if your wife and her sibling both decide not to go, theyâll have cover. I like the idea, and even just doing something like sending a nice card and perhaps trying to get a caterer to deliver a few days of food to her Aunt and Uncle so they donât have to worry about cooking while they deal with everything this week might go a long way, and show that you guys care even though you arenât able to make it.
Yeah, itâs a mess. The problem is that most people are terrible at evaluating the relative risk of generally unlikely events with horrible consequences. Factor in exponential growth and the lack of understanding about it, right wing misinformation, and a leadership vacuum⌠and yeah, total disaster.
So far we have:
Florida: New all time high
Texas: New all time high for hospitalizations(up 66% from Memorial day)/new case data pending
Arizona: New all time high
California: pending
Arkansas: pending
Alabama: off their all time high set a couple days ago. Week over week they are 40% above last weekâs Tuesday data.
North Carolina: off their all time high set a couple days ago. Week over week they are 20% above last weekâs Tuesday data.
South Carolina: pending
Not a promising start really.
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Itâs 5g bro! Soros and Bill Gates mind control to make us all sheeple. Donât let them do it.
Iâd probably go (driving), wear a mask, tell anyone who asks I have a sore throat and just want to be safe, try to sit in the back row, spend a lot of time walking around outside during the wake, get the hell out of there at the absolute first opportunity.
Iâd try to avoid the wife as much as possible for a few days and lock her in her bedroom at the first sign of âallergiesâ. My friend got it and her husband and kids didnât.
Do you have an N95 mask?
This is such a rough time. In about a month or less a lot of these states are going to have to face reality again - just like they did the first time when it was all a hoax, until it wasnât.
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It boggles my mind that some families expect people to attend funerals. My BILâs brother died of cancer last week. My sister told me they had a funeral but everyone was told they didnât have to attend. I think like 10 showed up. No one got angry or anything because people didnât go. Expecting or demanding people go to a funeral is pretty selfish under normal circumstances let alone during a pandemic.
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Cuse
One thing I did is to do an offset column. I used the =offset column to put ânâ past days positives in the same rows as todayâs deaths and then plotted them and looked for the best correlation. I put ânâ in its own cell and I could just change that from 1 to 2 to 3 to ⌠until I found the best correlation.
It probably varies somewhat state to state and may change over time as testing changes (but probably less of that no vs back in early April when testing rates were changing dramatically).
So say n-6 days ago correlated with hospitalizations at slope of .12 and an r-squared of 0.97. Pretty good. You could then use todayâs 400 positives to expect 48 hospitalizations in 6 days.
Thatâs basically how I modeled deaths.
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I trust Moderna 0. They put out a bunch of hype wo data and goosed their stonk. Then the data they did put out was pretty thin.
Bad gnus Tuesday
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