Every time I have to go to a store, casino, massage parlor, etc., some little weenie tries to take my temperature by pointing a GUN directly at my HEAD! I didn’t agree to that. Next time it happens I’ll be exercising my 2A and pointing something right back at them.
MY FOREHEAD, MY CHOICE
In theory, it’s good news that there’s a ~costless solution to coronavirus, but in practice, it just makes it more depressing that it’s not going to be adopted.
Update that nobody cares about. Wife’s family (mom, dad, 3 brothers) is going to drive from extreme rural NY to Santa Rosa county FL (wherever that is) for their cousin’s funeral this weekend. Wife feels extreme social pressure to go. Her family is attending church, etc. with no activity restrictions, and I can’t imagine there would be any social distancing/masks in FL either.
Uncle who’s daughter died is a very nice guy, gave a speech at our wedding, and would already have driven up to NY from FL if her or one of her brothers had passed.
At first I went hard line I’m absolutely not going, you shouldn’t go, this is insane. But, she’s been crying for the last couple days (she’s a very empathetic person in general), and I can tell this is tearing her apart.
I’m pretty sure I just refuse to go. I told her that I’d support whatever decision she made.
But now I am feeling like the crazy one - they have 1/10 the cases and deaths in that county than in my home county (and 1/10th the tests done coincidentally). We’re talking a couple hundred cases there ever. I am aghast that anyone would even consider having a funeral or having out of town travelers, but again I’m the crazy one. I’m sure there are tons of funerals happening every day across the country.
We are in our early 40s with no kids, but yet her brothers all have kids and her parents are in their late 60s and couldn’t care less. Why should I not be willing to go when everyone else is? Arrgh.
The last thing I said was that her cousin wouldn’t want her to get sick, and that compounding one tragedy with another doesn’t do anyone any good, but this is exactly what happens when there is a leadership vacuum in this country, and nobody has any idea what the fuck they are supposed to do. I’m literally this close to driving 20 hours through some of the most heavily impacted areas, staying in a random FL hotel, and it’s insane and I can’t believe this could possibly be a thing and I’m the crazy one that is too scared of something that killed a couple dozen old almost-dead old people over the course of 3 months. FML.
Imagine if we all put masks on Feb 15 or even March 1.
https://mobile.twitter.com/CMO_England/status/1272877425295319040
https://mobile.twitter.com/NIHRresearch/status/1272875390160289793
Sorry you are dealing with it. My wife’s grandma is about to pass as well. Funeral will be outside and small thankfully, but I still feel some fear in being asymptomatic from being back in the office and bringing it to their small town. So you aren’t alone!
Going to Florida right now is madness.
Nevada all time new high today. BUSINESS IS BOOMING.
I have no idea how or why Iowa isn’t spiking but I’ll take it
That’s very helpful, thanks!
That’s good, but if my modeling ideas are correct, the rolling 21-day average is what impacts hospitalization rates, and yesterday’s (1-day) drop is still way higher than the first 7 days in the average. Which is to say holding steady there will still lead to an increase in hospitalizations the next week or so. If the downward trend continues for a few days, or even if the new cases stop growing as quickly, that would change it a lot. Their 1.6 R0 is what’s got them poised for a quicker tipover.
Plus, this:
Exactly.
If they’re right, their R0 going forward would be about 1.09. That would leave them in okay shape, a few weeks out from hospital overrun in a worst case scenario.
One thing this model seems to show is that the hospitals in a lot of these states can hold up for a long time with R0 around 1.2 or less - like two months. But if you take it to 1.5 or higher, then they’re in trouble pretty quickly. In the mean time, they’ll keep racking up cases, ticking off deaths, and staying below hospital capacity. Then in the fall/winter, there will be way too many active cases and when activity moves back inside, people have a false sense of security, and nobody is wearing masks… fuck.
All that said, if people figure out that masks aren’t a bad thing, which I think may eventually happen (when the billionaires are like yo Donny, ya dumbass, we need your fine MAGA folks to wear those masks so the hospitals don’t get slammed so the stocks keep going up)… At some point we’re likely to see a ton of corporate ads about how important masks are.
Is there any country more blatantly rigging their stats than pootinland?
2 days ago 8835 cases
1 day ago 8246
today 8248
Can’t be long till they just put out the same figure every day.
I have thoughts:
More evidence this is something you don’t want to be cavalier about catching
https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1272900061337473026?s=21
A 67% increase in hospitalizations over the last three weeks matches my calculated R0 in Texas. Based on their current published hospitalization figures and current number of open beds, this corresponds to hitting capacity in 54 days. They’ll likely be able to increase open beds by decreasing elective procedures. If they can double available beds, they would be able to go 75 days before hitting capacity on beds. However, if their ICU needs match the frequency of NYC’s, they’re going to be at full capacity in 33 days statewide.
So my best ballpark guess is at current rates, we’re about 3 weeks away from parts of Texas running out of ICUs. The wild card is whether the cases are as severe as NYC, given the time of year and improved treatments.
We may be on a Spanish Flu timeline, but rather than the virus mutating we just sprint into the fall/winter buzzsaw all by ourselves. On the other hand, Moderna is talking Thanksgiving for vaccine efficacy, leaving it up to the FDA to approve the vaccine then.
Someone posted a twitter thread about a theorem that says the first digits of actual data samples is far more likely to be a 1 than a 9, and Russia’s was one that was very irregular.
For instance, if a random variable is normally distributed with a mean of 9,999, then there should be as many entries that begin with 1 as entries that begin with all the other digits combined. And yet Russia keeps on winding up with entries just below 10,000, which seems impossible to explain due to variability alone.
Taking this to heart. I agree with points 1 and 2.
Definitely not trying to get it cancelled - it is definitely happening nor would I lobby that they cancel it (neither my wife nor myself are close enough to that part of the family to have any sway there - I’ve never even met the cousin in the 10+ years I’ve been with my wife).
I am definitely mindful that this is a painful, difficult decision. If my wife truly wanted me to make the trip, I’d power through the 19 hour drive. In my heart I don’t think she feels like it is a wise decision to travel 1200 miles to Florida right now, but it is the social pressure from the “it’s just the flu” part of the family combined with the genuine sympathy she has for her Uncle that make it a difficult situation.
I echo the other sentiment above that it feels like lunacy to travel to Florida right now, but we are certainly in the extreme minority on that position, I’m afraid.
Lol too funny. I started shaving my head once COVID started. My screen name is making fun of Matt Ryan.
You’re in NYC, right? Do you guys own a car?
I get this is a difficult spot but you already know the answer. Just because other people don’t get doesn’t matter.
Florida is in the exponential growth stage. It’s a lock Someone at this funeral will have COVID.
It’s harsh, but that kid is dead. You being at the funeral won’t change that.