Chinese peasant and kid with malaria say hi.
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lmao riverman 100% has google news notifications setup for like āthe villages COVID-19ā. he is my go to source for information about coronavirus in floridaās over 80 population and i donāt know what iād do without his posts.
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I walked past a ton of them in Hermosa Beach. You have to wear a mask on your way in and out, but thatās it. A few have partitions between tables. Thereās no crammed standing room but the tables are full. Also lots of people having house and hotel room parties on the rooms that open up to the beach.
Physics prof/smart guy talks to Nobel prize virus guy about Covid and viruses. 75 minute podcast
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I just finished a whole chapter in 1491 on smallpox. Very depressing and definitely a lot less abstract for me than it would have been 4 months ago.
Cliffs: it wiped out somewhere between 80-95% of Native Americans and threw their society in chaos before the white conquerors went on to their āunder-utilizedā country populated by a ādying raceā. Plymouth was literally founded on an abandoned Indian village. Before smallpox, Europeans didnāt even bother trying to colonize the US East Coast - it was too crowded. DeSoto traveled a big loop from Florida to Arkansas, met constant Indian resistance - found highly populated areas packed with villages. 90 years later when the French were the next to come through - the whole region around the Mississippi was empty.
In North America that is. In Mesoamerica as most know it decimated the Aztecs as they were trying try fight the Spanish. In South America the Incas had already sustained 4 massive epidemics before Pizarro arrived.
Itās hard to imagine what losing 90% of your populace does to a culture. Smallpox basically plowed the field for colonization.
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Grunching by 100+ posts butā¦
My understanding is that hospitalization rates seem to be between 10 and 16% of the total number of cases (including asymptomatic), and this is the timeline for serious cases:
Day 0: Infection
Day 5.7: Symptoms
Day 13: Hospitalization
Day 20: Average Day of Death among Fatal Cases
Day 21: Average Patient Discharged
Day 29: Average Vented Patient Discharged
I guess this is the only timeline that matters, since Iām only trying to model hospitalization. Now the question is, when does the average test occur? Itās not on Day 0, itās probably more like Day 6, right? Some will be earlier due to contact tracing, others will be later after symptoms. Then the positive test goes up at least a day or two later.
So by the time a positive test is statistically reported weāve got to be around Day 8, right?
Thus I should use three weeks of cases to be my active cases?
Then to find my multiplier to get actual cases, not just positive tests, I should adjust by the ratio of official cases to official deaths in that state.
So Deaths * 100 % official cases = multiplier.
Multiplier * last 21 days of new cases = total currently active cases.
Total Active Cases * .13 = Total Current Hospitalizations.
Now I plug that into the formulas with the R0, and Iām there, right?
It makes sense to my sleep deprived brain!
I ran that off of data through Sunday 6/14 using the method you taught me.
600000 people died from malaria last year, maybe 20% off the historical peak and the Chinese peasant was too busy in their factory job to look up to say hi.
On a call with the governors, audio of which was obtained by The New York Times, Mr. Pence urged them āto continue to explain to your citizens the magnitude of the increase in testingā in addressing the new outbreaks.
And he asked them to āencourage people with the news that weāre safely reopening the country.ā
In fact, seven-day averages in several states with outbreaks have increased since May 31, and in at least 14 states, the positive case rate is increasing faster than the increase in the average number of tests, according to an analysis of data collected by The New York Times.
The vice president played down the overall size of the outbreaks, stressing that some states were seeing what he called āintermittentā spikes of the virus.
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A lot of places popped 8-14 days after Motherās Day (May 10) and Memorial Day. Whether itās that or a sustained increase in R0 from re-opening will vary by location.
Weāre crazy enough to live in a country with a bunch of covidiots, but no we are not the crazy ones.
I donāt think it would benefit the GOP politically to shut down the government. Given the year Trump is having, heās definitely catching the blame for that one.
The market doesnāt care about deaths, generally speaking, it cares about economic activity. A couple million dead wonāt hurt it much, a few months of shutdown might.
The thing to remember here is that some economic activity is up - itās moving online. People who are still working or collecting CARES Act money are still buying widgets, theyāre just buying them from Bezos and Wayfair and such.
It reduces your risk of catching it by a non-negligible amount, and the risk of catching it brings with it a risk of permanent lung, brain, kidney, reproductive and who knows what else damage. Also the risk of death.
Wear the mask.
Right, small businesses go belly up and Amazon, Wal Mart, etc scoop up the market share. Sure, they take a short-term earnings hit too because of the increased unemployment and decreased consumer confidence, but their forward-looking earnings projections improve.
You had me right up until the last two words. But also, maybe donāt taunt them while theyāre contagious or you might get de-masked and spit on/coughed at. And what are you going to do? Punch em? They didnāt do āanything wrongā it was just a āharmless prankā right? At least in the eyes of 95% of their coworkers, the boss, the cops who are going to come, etcā¦
Orā¦
Dumbass: Why are you wearing that mask?
You: Iām Batman. Also, as a grown ass man I understand math and science.
orā¦
You: Because Iām a huge snowflake, just like Darth Vader, Zorro, Leatherface, and every single leading expert on the transmission of this disease.
orā¦
You: Why are you wearing pants? (they react oddly) What? You asked a stupid question, so I asked a stupid question. Iām not the one free ballinā it during a deadly pandemic, pendejo.
Iām skipping #3 for my long-term health, at least or now. At some point Iām going to give up and start trying to date again.
Yep. They canāt see it, smell it, taste it, or hear it. They look around and get the social proof of tons of other people letting it all hang out there. Everyone looks happy, it seems safe, live it up! Plus, even if they get it, theyāre totally healthy. I mean, sure theyāre 80 lbs overweight, but they donāt have any other issues and theyāre pretty young. Or sure they have diabetes, but theyāre thin so itās fine. Whatās that, you say, elevated cholesterol is a risk factor? But itās only a little elevated and I feel fine!
LOL
I remember watching a woman in Lombardy, Italy, on CNN. She was born in America but had lived there for a while. I just Googled it, it was on March 14th, their 6th day of mandated lockdown. She said the most frustrating part was that some people werenāt following it, thus it was going to take even longer to get back to normal. She was distressed, near the point of tears about it.
They did a Phase 1 lifting 4/14, and Phase 2 lifting was May 4, it all ended May 18.
Meanwhile, Iāve barely left the apartment since March 10th due to my voluntary lockdown, and thereās no return to a safe normal for me and my underlying conditions anytime on the horizon, because I live in a country full of assholes who canāt be bothered to put on a mask.
In Italy, they thought people were dicks for making it extend a couple extra weeks when it took just over two months total to get through it.
Couldnāt be bothered to sit on their couch and watch Netflix, or wear a light cloth mask to the storeā¦ completely unconcerned about possibly ending up on a ventilator face down in a hospital bed for an average of 2-3 weeks!
Go in one day without a mask. Tell everyone you were just at a party a few days ago and found out three of the five other people there tested positive. Close talk them when you tell them.
Wanna bet mask compliance goes up real quick?
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Had to get gas today. Parking lot was full so I put mask and gloves on. Some MAGA dude wearing a Trump Bud Light shirt (LOL of course) was getting gas next to me. He asked why I was wearing a mask and gloves. I wanted to say āBecause Iām not a fucking idiot.ā but instead I pretended I was sick and coughed and cleared my throat the entire time while having the mask on. I told him I was feeling better after being quarentined for 2 weeks. He got in the car and left. LOL.
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The European economy boomed after the Great Plague, IIRC.
Dude, Iām no tough guy but I 100% would have said something. Fuck him. Right when we started panic buying here I grabbed like 10 frozen orange juice canisters. Not the whole store or something, like 10 or so. Some dipshit MAGA idiot asked me if I was having a jungle juice party. I said āYeah, probably but you arenāt invited. Why? It this not ok?ā He shut the fuck up fast once tested.
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All these MAGA dipshits live on intimidating you. They canāt run 100 yards without almost collapsing.
Iām 6ā4" 275 lbs. I figured Iād mess with him instead of telling him to fuck off. I drive a pick up truck and have a shaved head. He asked in a curious matter, not a derogatory way.
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Ok then. Iād just tell him the truth tbh. Fuck him.
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The truth doesnāt matter with these idiots.
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Did you pick your screen name before you shaved your head?
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I agree. I would just rather tell one that Iām a soy boy and doing it for not only for myself but also other people and see if he wants to really step up. Iām a hippie really but these things where people deny basic reality grinds my gears. People have been arrested here I think for insinuating that they had COVID or maybe saying they actually had it also.
Meh you guys need to stop being lame like this. Next time tell him because you arenāt a fucking selfish piece of garbage and by being a possible vector of spread he is actively causing the death of old people.
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Tell me about it.
Thatās a good idea to check on.
And you should hear what the non-Americans are saying!