Updated R0 estimates… Among states I’m keeping an eye on: Florida up from 1.38 to 1.46, Georgia ticks up from 1.06 to 1.07 - they were 1.01 when Dan posted his. Slight upticks in Texas, Oklahoma, and Oregon, slight downtick in SC. Vermont up from 2.56 to 2.89, but their raw numbers are low like Hawaii’s, so I’m not too concerned about those two as long as they get it back under control. Now’s the time for contact tracing, quarantine and continuing the social distancing efforts there.
This is entirely due to a single outbreak in a single city. The positive tests are 80% non-symptomatic and almost half are children. Only 1 hospitalization has happened because of it, and the numbers for recent days are way down.
The health officials here (who have been doing a pretty good job throughout this pandemic) say they have things under control.
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Well bald head and the name “Lice”. Whatever happened to truth in advertising?
Have you compare our two sets? I will likely update mine mid week sometime.
I actually put the comma in the sentence to explain that I wasn’t worried about it, then didn’t realize I hadn’t finished it and posted.
The only difference should be where we’re getting our data, and that you’re plotting the changes day-to-day. If we do one on the same day, we’ll see!
I may add a historical trend to it, mainly right now I’m just trying to keep a handle on whether a bunch of states are about to lose control.
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If people associate without protection they will spread the disease.
Doesn’t matter if it’s and STD or covid. Of course the mask is worn differently if used, but if not used the communicable diseases communicabate.
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What is your favorite site to get data from? I’m currently using the Wikipedia page that Google uses, but I’m not sure it’s the most consistently up to date. I’d like to be able to update nightly between 9p and midnight EST.
You’re going to go mad trying to analyze these values to the second decimal place; there’s no way we have that kind of precision in these estimates.
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How can I set this up? I’ve never cheered for death over life for this many people at once,
Covidtracking. But I’m importing csv into excel. Better if you know how to script and pull exactly what you want.
My kid’s school district just sent out a survey to find out what parents think about half class sizes, distancing, staggered drop offs, and what not for Fall. I don’t know why by I just about flew off the handle. Epidemiology isn’t a democracy, motherfucker! Why the fuck are we voting on best practices? Talk about the death of expertise. JFC!
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That’s a great claim and all, but I’ll believe them when the numbers start going back down again.
They have. Only 1 new case today.
They’re probably doing what you’re afraid they’re doing, but even if they decide something is safe enough, it won’t matter much if parents refuse to send their children.
When American Airlines flight 341 to Los Angeles lifted off the tarmac at New York’s John F. Kennedy Airport on a cloudy Thursday in mid-March, much of the country was already on coronavirus lockdown. The flight was far from full, but the 49 passengers and eight crew shared restrooms, cabin air and a narrow aisle for the six-hour trip.
Though no one knew it then, a man in first class, a retired Manhattan surgeon, was infected with the virus. The day after the flight, he was rushed by ambulance to Cedars-Sinai Medical Center with a high fever and phlegmy cough. The virus spread quickly among those he had come in contact with in the hours after leaving LAX, including at a Westside assisted living facility where a 32-year-old nurse and a dozen others later died.
L.A. was still in an early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic when the surgeon’s flight touched down, with fewer than 250 confirmed cases. Local health officials regularly assured the public then that the county was investigating each case and engaging in aggressive contact tracing to control the spread of the virus.
Despite these pledges, no one in public health informed any of the passengers and crew who had flown cross country with the surgeon that they were at risk. The airline only recently learned of the case from The Times .
It was one of two long-haul flights into LAX in March identified by The Times in which public health officials failed to alert passengers and crew who had flown with a person who later tested COVID-positive. In the other, a March 8 flight from Seoul, the stricken passenger reported running a fever days before boarding the aircraft and went into cardiac arrest the morning after she landed, becoming the first confirmed COVID-19 death in L.A. County.
Without instructions to self-quarantine or seek testing, more than 200 people on these flights returned to their families and communities ignorant of their exposure, potentially seeding new outbreaks.
“Christ,” said Dr. George Rutherford, formerly the state epidemiologist for California, upon hearing that passengers and crew weren’t contacted. “That’s a problem.”
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You’re not deciding what’s best, you’re deciding what’s good enough. Figuring out the science shouldn’t be subject to a vote, but deciding what risk is tolerable can be open to a democratic process.
Maybe the solution is giving parents different options based on what they are willing to tolerate, with some children being instructed in the classroom and some by distance learning, instead of one-size-fits-all education.