One could argue that states full of morons who are going YOLO like Florida and Alabama aren’t going to be careful about non-symptomatic people going out to get tested.
Like, this is extremely complicated and there are confounding variables at play. Ideally you’d test random samples of people but no one is doing that. My recurring message in this thread is to be careful about drawing strong conclusions from messy data.
I’m white and also prefer corn tortillas.
Surprised this is even an argument
FWIW I tried and abandoned trying to figure out testing. There have been fubars, shenanigans, well meaning misinterpretation, ill meaning disinformation, etc.
These are what matter
Positives
Hospitalizations
Reported covid deaths
Excess deaths when available and even that is hard to determine.
Here is what we can use as a rules of thumb for R
Masks and SD <0.8
SD alone— looks like about 1
Masks alone- unclear cause the places without SD seem to reject masks.
Everything else > 1.0
Looks like for the average place (not NYC) the baseline without big crowds is 1.4-1.5 ish.
SD and masks as each is practiced are about -0.3 (each)
OFB party all the time gets into the 2.0 range. Big crowds and high density push even higher. You know-like MAGA rallies.
Now while these numbers are educated guesses from my ass, I would put solid money that anything that seriously deviates from above is due to bad data, not the real spread. For example if OFB w poor mask usage and R =1 or less I call bullshit.
For all your sanity, let trends run for a few days. Don’t worry there will be plenty of states where a 7 day rolling average is spiking to get alarmed about.
Your pony is faster and more succinct than my pony.
Best tortilla type depends on what you’re eating with them. Corn tortillas are terrible for breakfast tacos and quesadillas, for example.
Each has their place. I like eggs over easy with flour tortillas.
I very underestimated casualty f this battle is the physiological impact n nurses and Drs. This goes beyond what they are seeing at work. My sister Who is a charge nurse ,hasn’t seen her 2 month old gran daughter
This makes it so clear the GOP never has a strategy, only tactics.
This is going to keep getting worse, including and especially leading into the election. They’re not going to pass any more help, they’ll dig in on straight up denial and rely on riggage come November.
They have a very clear strategy. Let people live as close to they were last year at this time. There will be casualties in the form of deaths. Post covid health problems are hard to quantify until after they occur and are not glamorous so they will be ignored.
The narrative will be pounded into their base that most would have died anyway and we had to save the economy and the world from the left . The virtual s blame game will be shifted from China to Who to Obama and back again. They have already prepared for this recent outbreak. It’s because of Mexico. This aspect will being running amuck on SM by midweek.
They know exactly what they are doing and have all along.
You haven’t made a ton of posts but I think this post nails the reality we are living in and I subscribe.
I can only imagine. I hope your wife stays safe and healthy. I know I couldn’t do that job in general, let alone right now, so I appreciate those who do.
If you are still in the hey this might not be that bad, we are probably overreacting phase, then I will use this image to pull you back in:
Yikes. That last bar seems really bad.
I think it’s been mentioned here before, but not a ton of people are out getting tested just because. So if we see an increase in testing and positives it’s safe to assume that we are seeing an increase in overall numbers compared to previous data
I actually ID’d her as a real son’of’a’bee-sting
Fuck man. 7 months til Biden takes the reins. That’s a ton of time to do some serious serious fucking damage. We’re gonna win the election, senate and all, and WAAF.
Nah, I’m still on the side of listening to informed opinion.
I was the one making that argument, and no, I don’t think the situation in LA is actually “good.” However, it is worth bearing in mind the context that while the case numbers are going up, if the testing is going up so much that the positive rate is going down, then some of the case load is sick people who weren’t being measured. I haven’t examined the raw data for LA county, but per the article, that’s true for them. Also, case counts going up but hospitalizations going down isn’t all that bad, for exactly the same reason.
So, no, I’m not looking to be giving free hugs in LA county. I’m not even looking to do so in Santa Clara county, and it’s much better. But their raw case numbers don’t tell the whole story.
