Wow. Pennsylvania has done a decent job and most of this was available during our lockdown phase. I guess not all retail, but quite a bit as far as I know. Construction was wide open, my apartment complex never stopped construction on the pool they’re building.
And since all of those states are Open For Business, all those people have been walking around interacting with people without masks for those 6 to 19 days.
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NASCAR will have at least 7500 after gift and other ploys. Their maybe more “ employees “ than fans .
Rd=exp(ln(R0)/5.6)
For R0=1, Rd=1
For R0=1.4 Rd=1.062 or 6.2% per day.
Ballpark 11 day doubling time. ~ 7x in a month.
Bunch of Americans lying at border about having to get to Alaska to get into Canada but instead being tourists. A group of Texans just caught in Banff.
God I hate some people so much.
I tried emailing or tweeting the the following suggestion- have “fans of the game”. Basically family/quarantine groups and have their cheering piped in from home if needed. If there is a delay then it would have to be on replay.
But why not put them in luxury boxes at the stadium. Mic em up (no swearing rule). Camera inset.
Make it a contest.
So I just want to make sure we’re on the same page here. What you’re saying is that if that German study is correct and mask-usage reduces the daily rate of spread by 40%, and we control for all other variables, that mandatory mask usage would take an R0 of 1.4 down to 1.0?
If so, this seems like really good news for the world, and an even more massive own goal being scored by USA#1. Most of these re-openings seem to be taking R0 to 1.2 to 1.4, so basically we could be this open with mask usage and still have an R0 < 1.
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LOLsports
This might be a false positive but sports ain’t going to happen as planned no matter how much they will it.
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IMO the NBA should let any players/staff who are getting daily testing go to other games if they want to, and require teams to leave some gaps in scheduling to accommodate this. Then mic them up. The banter and trash talk would be wildly entertaining, and go a long way to offsetting the empty arenas.
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I dunno, a bunch of healthy 20- and 30-somethings who think that they are gods among men are probably willing to roll the dice for salaries ranging from high six figures to low-mid seven figures. So if the public doesn’t care, the seasons will go on. The issue is containing outbreaks so that there are enough healthy players to field a team.
This is a big challenge for football, because meetings throughout the day break out by position group. As a result, losing 20% of your roster for a month to COVID-19 probably doesn’t mean losing a WR, a TE, two OL, two DL, a LB, and three DBs. It probably means losing 7 OL and 3 DL or something like that, and most teams only carry 7-8 offensive lineman. It’d be virtually impossible to win with 5 offensive lineman off the street, and it’d be franchise malpractice to put a franchise QB out there behind 5 offensive lineman off the street.
I don’t know how they avoid this. It’s going to happen to someone. If I were an NFL GM, I’d have a backup QB in total isolation, working out and practicing with a couple coaches that are also in total isolation. My entire practice squad would be offensive and defensive lineman, and I’d also isolate them from the rest of the team.
I want to be clear before I say this that I really think it’s a bad idea for sportsball to get going again, but I also really want to see a season when this shit is going on, because it’ll be absolutely insane. It’s gonna be sad when people die though. Not worth it . I also feel bad for the support players and staff who are maybe making like very low 6 figures who will basically be forced to be back in action. I feel less sympathetic towards players who decide the 7 figure salary is outweighing the risk of covid.
All it’ll take is one very large sports star to become seriously ill or die and I feel the public will do a 180.
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For sure lots of players will be willing to roll the dice. I wonder if some will have to take out extra covid insurance? or maybe the league will cover the risks? Healthy lungs seems pretty important for athletes careers.
It’s trickier than that because of the exponential math. But for ball park purposes close enough. Remember that for Cv a 40% drop in spread is 40% less every 5.6 days, not 40% less each day.
I saw elsewhere that claimed masks lowered R0 by about 0.3.
Also remember that current OFB is NOT everyone out walking around and lots of large events and full restaurants
Moderate OFB and masks should cancel out. I expect that Full OFB and high mask wearing but bad technique will still be above 1.
If we got serious about masks, then maybe. Even where use is mandatory indoors I should see pretty crappy technique. Lots of noses.
But in order to be OK with R~1 the curve has to be crushed first, not at the peak.
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I’ve seen no evidence that any Americans who aren’t on Unstuck are thinking about long-term lung/brain/kidney damage. It’s just not a thing that is at all in the public conscious.
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When sports leagues shut down initially is when more people really started to take covid seriously. Could see that happening again.
Right, like the proper way to do this is to mandate it and then flood the airwaves with PSAs about how to wear masks properly and mockery of people with their noses hanging out.
Right, but at this point I’d be thrilled to see R = .9 for a while, even thought it would take a long time to crush the curve.
At least pros can make choices. College kids are going to be pressured and or too immature to make a rational decision.
One athlete death and it’s all off. Heck a good hospitalization will do the trick (let’s include family members as well).
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Grunching the thread but LOL Florida.
I was asking about this a few days ago, especially since most experts are assuming (I think?) that the vast number of exposures are due to inhaling others’ exhaled droplets before they have a chance to drop to the ground.