They’re parents of my 18 yo daughter’s friends. I’ve barely said “hi” to them. I wouldn’t worry about the mother/father getting proper care. They’ve had multiple tests. They seem to have caught it in Aspen during ski week. That may give you some idea of the quality of their health care.
The dad of the other friend is a raging alcoholic who lives in a tiny apartment with roommates. Everyone pretty much hates him. He shows up to visit his kid late and plastered. That guy could probably use some advice, but…well… I’ve seen him once. It’s not coming from me.
Finally know someone who tested positive. A buddy who has been working construction (builds large apartment buildings) throughout the lockdown got tested last week and it came back positive today. He hasn’t really had any symptoms so far, only got tested because someone he works with on the jobsite tested positive.
All very true–these are important intangible considerations and need to be accounted for in a comprehensive model.
But my goal was to look at the tangible aspects of ventilation that can be quantified and compared. Each situation has special circumstances that make them more or less risky. But this ought to be at least in the right magnitude. For instance, airflow within places is probably close to a zero sum game: either the average viral load in the air is concentrated and exposed to fewer people, or dispersed and exposed to everyone more evenly. We don’t know which situation is preferable yet afaik.
For the places with larger crowds, if you’re breathing ambient air with a 1% potential active viral load, some tiny fraction of 1% comes from each individual person. However, if the 1% comes from someone is in your home, you’re getting the whole dose, straight up. We don’t know yet the relative danger of these two situations.
For what it’s worth, with half life, the formula applies the half life to all potential viral load in the air, adds all new viral load at 100%, and adds ventilation for all previous viral load. Eventually, it stabilizes as viral half life, exhalation, and ventilation come into balance. Stabilization occurs more slowly in poorly ventilated places, and faster in well-ventilated places–in the “poorly ventilated bar” scenarios it takes over an hour to build up to the point that viral half life + ventilation roughly equals new viral load in the air. All the factors shown are post-stabilization.
according to Worldometer’s ongoing tracker, the U.S. per capita testing rate of 29,209 per 1 million falls behind the Faeroe Islands, Iceland, Gibraltar, the United Arab Emirates, the Falkland Islands, Bahrain, Malta, Luxembourg, San Marino, Lithuania, Bermuda, Cyprus, Denmark, Mauritius, Israel, Spain, the Cayman Islands, Portugal, Belgium, Estonia, Kuwait, Qatar, the Isle of Man, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, New Zealand, Russia, Norway, Brunei, Switzerland, Austria, Australia, Germany, the Channel Islands, Slovenia, Canada, and Singapore.
Taking nicotine is a bad idea. It’s probably, in aggregate, the most destructive substance on the planet (due to common delivery systems). I eat nicotine lozenges and have for 10 years, because I’m an addict. It’s “safe” but has probably cost me $10k. Don’t play with fire because you heard some pseudoscientific woo woo.
So, since America is apparently gonna Open For Business, anyone want to speculate where the big conventions will be held in DC this summer? Unfortunately, the actual convention center has been converted into a field hospital…
There’s been tens of millions of deliveries to and from different parts of the US in the last two months and hasn’t been widespread dissemination. From what I’ve seen it appears to be mainly airborne transmission through respiration, not so much from transfer from oral ingestion of virus. The places, like prisons and meat plants, the really spread seem to be places where people stew for hours in the same air.
My comment said “nicotine addiction” not nicotine. My prior post has more detail. Even if it doesn’t lead to cigarette use, being addicted to nicotine is a significant negative.
Meat plants are cold with the right humidity. Basically virus survivors sweet spot. Also there has something to do with the ventilation away from the carcasses has high velocity at the point of meat contact but it tends to blast out the workers exhaust into dead zones. I don’t remember where I saw that.
Funny part is that it was never 6 feet to begin with. It was 2 meters. But LOLAmerica doesn’t use the metric system. Oh and 2 meters is 6 feet 6 inches. So we can’t even get that part right either.
