COVID-19: Chapter 4 - OPEN FOR BUSINESS

Facebook is great guys, allows for the open exchange of ideas and really beings people together:

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Ok, thanks anyway. Hospitals have some negative pressure rooms but otherwise I doubt air handling is much different from an office building. In ordinary times they can be quite crowded.

Probably the delivery person as super spreader idea that you mentioned.

If deliveries occur in a place doing contact tracing and delivery people occasionally are asymptomatic carriers who can infect others, the lack of a delivery person being a super spreader becomes evidence that it might be possible to deliver food without risk, or at least without a risk that is greater than other ways of acquiring food. After a sufficient number of deliveries without incident, you can say that it is probable that the risk is sufficiently low. For some number of deliveries, this probability becomes 99%. For another, 99.9%. But we’ll never get to 100% certainty.

I’m used to seeing the world in probabilistic terms (maybe why I was attracted to poker), so I’m comfortable operating without 100% certainty.

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Then the problem for everyone else is that the checkout person is very likely to become infected, which then means that every single customer checking out passes within 1-3 feet of an infected person. This is one reason the analysis is so difficult. Another is that it doesn’t account for air circulation patterns, say in restaurants. Last but not least, given that we don’t know the viral load necessary to infect, we don’t know whether we need to be exposed within one half-life or two or three half-lives. Thus areas that are highly trafficked throughout the day suddenly become way riskier than calculated, because you’re also exposed to everyone that came before you.

Isn’t ethyl alcohol food grade and isopropyl is not?

Two or three key things:

  1. Some may have required capacity caps and thus may be lying about how many people are there.

  2. Takeout is probably up HUGE.

  3. Give it another week.

Denatured ethyl alcohol can seriously fuck you up. Just get some Everclear if you’re going to do this.

Don’t waste everclear.

They should still monitor their O2 levels and look for any signs of clotting. It’s a small fraction of people but those “silent” effects seem especially nasty. Worth a few bucks and some awareness.

Trump stating US same deaths per million as Germany - Germany at 91 deaths per million vs USA at 242 deaths per million.

Will do same comparison in 7 days :slight_smile:

I still like the overall concept of this analysis. I think directionally we can imagine scenarios that raise or lower group and individual situation risk, but the raw weighting’s are very helpful.

Individuals can make their own risk assessments within whatever limit the officials decide are ok (hopefully science based). To me the goal of public health is to reduce the community spread and to inform people of their individual risks. So dumb stuff like people cramming into subway cars without some kind of distancing, masks, and ventilation improvements seems insane. Crowded restaurants are a no. I’d say in the case of offices and restaurants where people sit in one spot then something needs to be done to understate and mitigate air flow issues.

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Ethyl alcohol for non drinking purposes is usually adulterated so You can’t drink it.

Trying to get pure ethanol for lab research took a huge number of hoops to jump through.

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Haha it’s not going quite so well as Limitless, but good gif. So, YMMV, I assume everyone reacts a little differently. I’m extremely sensitive to caffeine and it messes up my sleep even if I drink a cup of coffee when I first wake up - so I try to limit it to a couple days a week.

For me, coffee makes me more alert, nicotine makes me more focused. Nicotine also seems to lift my mood a little bit. It might make me a bit jumpy/jittery, too, though - small sample size to tell. I can’t really analyze how it effects my sleep, because my sleep is shit on those nights anyway due to the caffeine consumption. I felt a little warm after taking it yesterday, and Googled it, and it can cause a slight uptick in body temp.

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Me, too, but then I factor in the relative reward and it’s just not worth it. Although part of it for me is the additional risk of having to go meet them in the lobby of my building. Most delivery drivers won’t bring it to my door for me, and I’ve avoided leaving my apartment except between like 12am and 4am, so that would suck.

Good to know, thanks. Back in college, some girls threw a party in which they made a vodka watermelon - tap it, pour some vodka in, soak it for a few hours, eat it, get drunk. I must be getting old, I want to keep the alcohol OUTSIDE the fruit now.

I will need for you to define “dumber” and “smarter” before I understand what you’re asking

Dumber=having less intelligence
Smarter=having more intelligence

If you’re going to ask me what intelligence is, then:

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More alert vs more focused is an interesting distinction!

It’s tough for me to forget how hard it was to stop smoking in my twenties. Then I think wait, am I conflating cigarettes with nicotine? More feedback as you continue experimenting with it if you don’t mind.

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TY let me read over this and check back with you. As I think you said to someone else, this really is interest on my part in understanding your perspective, not just me trying to better understand your POV so I can poke holes in it.

Narrator: he still ended up trying to poke holes in it

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