COVID-19: Chapter 4 - OPEN FOR BUSINESS

Politics & News
5593

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-10/travel-to-europe-will-be-allowed-again-starting-july-1?utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_medium=social&utm_content=business&cmpid=socialflow-facebook-business&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR2WH8umlxSEZKDAO2RwD1veYH9taHsPpACKny3l5OwEdRskQgr2lF1I-ss

5594

Says no more than the 30 days is about to expire again and EU already reporting inter-EU travel to be lifted.

Thereā€™s absolutely no mention in the article linked or any press this side of the Atlantic about inter-continental travel, especially from COVID hotspots.

I would bet my left bollock that the EU does not allow US, India, Russian etc citizen entry by July 2020.

https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1270665166770835462?s=20

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5595

and modi of India moves into the top five in COVID cases joining trump, bolonsaro, pootin and johnson. Populist leader = Incompetence everywhere.

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5596

India had very strict shutdowns, right?

5597

You rang?

I donā€™t see any evidence that we arenā€™t at least 10x away from herd immunity (assuming its lasting).

Itā€™s not a factor. Social distancing and in particular less crowds is driving the current lower R.

(Consider population density a form of social d)

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5598

To me there are two outstanding questions:

  1. Will states that have doubled in the last few weeks continue to grow exponentially?
  2. Will states that are hard hit see a second wave?

I donā€™t really see any evidence that either of these are a ā€œnoā€ right now. Thereā€™s still a case for optimism, but itā€™s basically just hope. Everything we know about the virus tells us they will both be ā€œyes.ā€

5599

Florida 1,700 new cases. 250 more than their previous peak.

5600

So New York was peaking at around 10k cases a day right? Feels like weā€™re 2 weeks away from Florida/Arizona combined being at that level. Maybe unlimited soup salad and breadsticks will help, idk.

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5601

Geez, looking at the county level JHU map, LA, MS, and AL are absolute shitshows, with some counties having per-capita cases comparable to NYC. Same with the tribal counties around the four corners. Some of that is small denominators, sure, but that sparse population was supposed to keep their per-capita numbers down.

5602

Not sure what thread this is, but yes.

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5603

That feeling when LA can mean Louisiana or Los Angeles and be correct either way :frowning:

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5604

Just so that everyone understands the doubling math is a lot trickier now.

Tracking increase in total cases is no longer valid as there is a large number of prior cases that are resolved.

Just looking at cases per day is better but we donā€™t have anywhere even OFB is at the same level of potential spread as early March in NYC. Less dense. Less crowds. Significant fractions staying home and wearing masks.

Iā€™d be shocked if we see R above 1.2-1.3 Thatā€™s still bad but I donā€™t think weā€™ll see 3 or whatever. 1.2 is a doubling every 3 weeks roughly.

Iā€™m still trying to think about how to best track. Iā€™m thinking maybe 14 day cumulative by state. Thatā€™s roughly the presumed contagious period and 14 days allows us to compare Monday/Monday etc.

And of course everything we see is a lagging indicator. By the time we see positive results increasing we are a couple of weeks behind real time spread.

5605

is there any site that shows these day by day graphs for states or are all of yall doing that yourselves?

5606

Google covid graphā€™s by state and that brings up a little tool.

I do my own roughly weekly.

5607

Alabama 856 today crushing their old high by 30%.

5608

sigh, i pulled up that john hopkins map for the first time, if those purple counties are the bad one, which it seems they, AL and especially the black belt is doing quite poorly. Not surprising for AL or the black belt. and thanks Dan ill check that out.

5609

The vast majority of people in my school are not wearing masks. I couldnā€™t because I was giving oral exams and a mask make it hard to understand a second language.

Thing is that the school is pretty empty. Probably give or take 40 people in a 4 floor school building. I wear my mask in small rooms and around people.

5610

I hadnā€™t looked at my national model. Looks like We are hitting somewhere between my original shutdown and stay shutdown curve (blue) and the long plateau version (orange).

I think the we are also seeing the impact of a drop in CFR due to increased testing. Detecting a higher % of positives which is the CFR denominator.

The overall 14 day sum is leveling off nationally.

image

Edit- had cut some points off previous version.

5611

I can explain the VT jump.

They did a bunch of testing in Winooski (a 1.5 square mile city with a really large immigrant population, especially for this state) and found a pretty substantial cluster of mostly non-symptomatic people.

Theyā€™re continuing the testing ramp-up and getting more information out to non-English speaking families.

5612

Lower Alabama is also sometimes abbreviated as LA too, and it still works.