Last time I suggested to someone they shouldn’t smoke I got a raised voice and a "You sound just like mother!” As I didn’t want her to think of her mother when I’m around, I haven’t repeated the advice.
Here is the update for this week.
(Again colors By hand so hopefully ok)
New this week is the daily case growth as the little number at the top of the bars.
AR AZ FL NC NV SC UT VT are the clear growers this week.
AL CA KS MS TX WA have stabilized or at least the data is too noisy to tell
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The states on the far right are at their peak daily case density. The faster growers are at the top.
At this point I think it is impossible to get the numbers down to anything reasonable by August when kids will be getting ready to go back to school and college. Are we really going to do that en masse? That’s another reason our whole plan here is enormously dumb. It leaves us with all bad choices on everything. Even a month or so more of lockdown nationwide would have gotten the numbers down a ton. The states that did it have way better results. That coupled with mandatory masks and all the things suzzer mentioned a few posts ago would have given us a fighting chance.
As is we are going to be left with either another crippling shutdown or widespread death. The rest of the first world will pretty much have this under control. But not USA #1. We need our FREEDUMBS. You can’t look at a Florida or Texas or Arizona chart and not realize those places are likely the tip of the iceberg that is forming.
I’m a bit late to the party on this, but as the resident D614G guy, I am sad to report that my theories on this are probably bullshit, per this preprint paper.
Here, we formally test whether any of the recurrent mutations that have been observed in SARS-CoV-2 to date significantly alter viral transmission. To do so, we developed a phylogenetic index to quantify the relative number of descendants in sister clades with and without a specific allele. We apply this index to a carefully curated set of recurrent mutations identified within a dataset of over 15,000 SARS-CoV-2 genomes isolated from patients worldwide. We do not identify a single recurrent mutation convincingly associated with increased viral transmission. Instead, recurrent SARS-CoV-2 mutations currently in circulation appear to be either neutral or weakly deleterious. These mutations seem primarily induced by the human immune system via host RNA editing, rather than being signatures of adaption to the novel human host. There is no evidence at this stage for the emergence of more transmissible lineages of SARS-CoV-2 due to recurrent mutations.
This includes the D614G mutation. It’s interesting that it appears that this mutation arose multiple times independently not because it helps the virus, but because some kind of RNA editing process in the human body tends to produce that result when applied to the viral genome. I didn’t even know RNA editing was a thing, so I never considered this as an explanation.
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After we dodged the Easter bullet , we were bat flipping down south. The nothingburger of nothingbugers they said. I paid of some losing may 31 totals. Now it’s confused shit show with nothing to slow it down.
Biology is complex. Higher life forms have all kinds of error correcting mechanisms. Not all mutations are random or at least they are not all at a constant frequency. But even at a higher frequency, if it doesn’t lead to reproductive success than it will not succeed.
Then there is the complication that we could change what reproductive success is. By wearing masks and social distancing we are selecting for variants that can get from person to person better under those conditions. Maybe better infectivity at lower viral loads? Longer survivability in the air?
And of course changes in that direction could do who knows what to morbidity and mortality.
Point being, nature is in charge right now. oir weapons are to not breath each other’s exhaust and avoid the major smear vectors. Neither is that hard but then we are a stupid species that somehow has succeeded in spite of ourselves.
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The SC Gov said about a lack of voluntary distancing and mask wearing:
“In other words, be smart,” McMaster said. “There’s a lot of stupid floating out there.”
He also said he would not imposing mandatory mask wearing or closures.
No closings in site. I wonder what the case or death #s have to get to to shut it down, if there even is one …
Though the state of emergency has been lifted in Japan, I’m relieved to see that people here are still taking the virus very seriously.
One example. I volunteer teaching a weekly English class in the town where I live. Yesterday we had our first class in three months.
Masks were mandatory, of course. But after class, the students, mostly elderly, thoroughly wiped down every table and chair in the room with disinfectant and towels that they had brought with them, so as to leave the room safe and clean for the next class.
I love living in this country.
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Ffs, first the baldness thing (yes, I might be follicly challenged) now this:
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I would caution you and everyone against believing that “most factors should make a second wave more severe.”
Regarding your points.
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We’re improving on treatments but it’s too soon to feel like we’re able to significantly drop mortality. We may be able to better use hospital resources and get more people better care, but a lot of the more promising advances aren’t likely to be scalable yet. Our resident medical professionals spoke to the difficulty of using nasal O2 with proning. How much remdesivir is there to go around? Etc
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@Danspartan would know better than me, but I don’t think we’re anywhere near the point where this makes a notable dent in R. We’ve probably seen something like 3-10% of the population nationwide get it so far. Also keep in mind that we don’t know for sure there is immunity or, if so, how long it lasts. If it only lasts ~3 months, the March cases could be losing immunity soon. 4-6 months seems more likely, but we’re just making educated guesses really.
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Maybe so, but more asymptomatic/mildly symptomatic cases means more generations of spread go less detected. We may see a lower mortality rate in this wave, though. That said, that doesn’t make anyone safer if they get it - it just means lower risk people are getting it. Your mortality risk is the same as it was, mine is the same as it was, etc.
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We all hope, but there’s not much evidence of this. You’re banking on outdoors spread having a lower viral load and/or vitamin D levels being key. Both are possible, if not likely, but the significance of that is very much unknown.
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It also may have mutated to a more severe strain. There is little, if any, evolutionary pressure for it to become milder.
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Sure, but on the other hand a lot of people are just over it.
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I hope so, but again this reduces mortality moreso than overall spread. Also we had like 7-10 days of 50-100, if not more, super spreader events per day. That is pretty risky. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw 60-70% of the protest community get it, due to rampant spread in holding cells and those folks returning to the streets and spreading it there.
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This is true, but they remain at more risk of exposure through no choice of their own.
All in all, it seems that for one reason or another the R is lower now than it was in March. I think it’s a combination of some precautions and summer lifestyle impacts. However, it’s also possible that we’re simply experiencing the beginning of the curve that we didn’t see before due to a lack of testing, and that right now we’re in like the January/February portion and this thing really blows up again in the late summer.
Last but not least, focusing solely on the rate of growth now to make short term personal safety decisions is unwise in my opinion. Even if we had an R < 1 everywhere, there are still more active cases now than there were a few months ago. So act accordingly and make good decisions, everyone!
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As to point 1, Remisdivir is basically already used up:
Great post overall and I agree with everything you said. It is hard not to see the part of Covid-19 we have lived through so far as it’s infancy stages tbh. Moat countries are just now having their first wave and soon many countries who were originally hit will probably be having their second wave. The consequences of that will likely be massive. Having every population and economy ravaged by this thing at once will be very different from just the US/Spain/Italy/UK ravaged by it back in March. When the whole world is getting hit by it we will really see some of the dire predictions come true most likely. Maybe some countries handle it better than others but EU countries are about to restart tourism. Explain how they keep it under control with the level of new infections we are seeing globally right now?
Scathing criticism of Trump in China as US reaches 2m cases
Thousands of Chinese social media users are mocking and criticising US President Donald Trump for his leadership during the fight against coronavirus, as the number of confirmed Covid-19 cases in the US passed two million.
Users of the popular Sina Weibo microblog are making sarcastic comments, noting how this is a “historic breakthrough” for the US and repeating Trump’s original campaign slogan “Make America Great Again”.
Many are saying “congratulations” to the US “superpower”. “Trump has not tweeted yet to celebrate,” one user quips.
Chinese users have repeatedly criticised the US president’s responses to the number of those infected with the virus - which is higher by hundreds of thousands than anywhere else in the world.
Despite all the mockery, however, some also say it’s “depressing” that the “American people are suffering”. “Does the United States want to perish?” one asks.
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Any Euro tourism that’s about to restart is very limited e.g. Norway are reopening but only to adjoining Nordic countries and excluding Sweden. Euro’s not open for tourism to India, Brazil, US etc.
Infection rate definately lower in EU than US and countries doing deals with others with similar infection rates. No deal for UK to mainland Europe yet :(
This would be similar to US locking down on a state by state basis, then allowing travel to connecting states before fully re-opening as opposed to flying the virus around the continent
Finland to reopen borders to neighbours - but not Sweden
Finland’s government says restrictions on leisure travelling to and from neighbouring Baltic and Nordic countries will be lifted from Monday, but Sweden is not included.
Interior Minister Maria Ohisalo said the situation in Sweden, which has adopted fewer restriction measures to contain the spread of Covid-19, did not “enable giving up the restrictions yet”.
The country’s borders will be reopened for people travelling to and from Norway, Denmark, Iceland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania but restrictions will remain on the western border with Sweden as well as on the eastern border with Russia.
The government says public gatherings of more than 500 people will be allowed from the beginning of July if social distancing can be enforced.
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The EU is allowing people from the US, the most infected place on earth, to enter starting in July from what I read.
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EU supposed to be opening up July but I thought that was to EU countries i.e. French to Germany and Germans to France.
I’d be shocked not surprised to read the same re US citizens. Maybe this is why the UK have imposed the 14 day lolquaratine for anyone entering UK (also erradicated loophole of entering via Dublin on connecting flight)
I would have thought the EU will be at least 30 days behind the date that Canada alllows non-essential travel from US citizens