COVID-19: Chapter 4 - OPEN FOR BUSINESS

Well you are certainly less likely to suffer from an algae bloom in any case.

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Ya know what?

You’re completely right. Don’t know what I was thinking.

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Gyms at 100% capacity?! What the fuck.

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My favorite local brewery is opening there beer garden this weekend. Here’s the guidelines. The contactless service through an app is a really good idea in theory. Not sure on the details yet.

Whatever you have tell yourself in the blue glow of your iPad in the basement bathroom.

Apologies but you did put the kick me sign on your own back.

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Certainly NY/NJ is a big part of why it’s going down. Texas and California seem to be places where it’s still increasing.

Threw this together real quick. The color labeling is by hand so hopefully it’s all correct.

Daily case average as of yesterday (7 day rolling). Color indicates trend. Yeah I’d say you knock out the handful biggest downward trenders and you’ll get moderate growth among the rest.

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This is awesome. Can you possibly do a per capita version?

Has Pence made a public appearance lately?

Here are the key developments from the last few hours:

  • Known coronavirus cases pass 6.4 m. According to Johns Hopkins University, there have been 6,430,705 known coronavirus cases so far, and 385,947 deaths reported.

  • Brazil looks to reopen despite record coronavirus deaths. Brazil registered a record number of daily deaths from the novel coronavirus for a second consecutive day, according to Health Ministry data released on Wednesday, even as city and state authorities move aggressively to open commerce back up. The nation recorded 1,349 new coronavirus deaths on Wednesday and 28,633 additional confirmed cases, the data showed. Brazil has now registered 32,548 deaths and 584,016 total confirmed cases. In Brazil, right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro has repeatedly downplayed the threat of the virus, saying on Tuesday that death was “everyone’s destiny.”

  • George Floyd had coronavirus, according to autopsy. Floyd tested positive for coronavirus, according to a full autopsy report released by the Hennepin county medical examiner’s office. The report noted that the virus was not a contributing factor in his death and that Floyd was asymptomatic.KSTP news reports: “A postmortem nasal swab was taken, which confirmed that Floyd was positive for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. It is noted that Floyd was known to be positive for Covid-19 on April 3. The postmortem positivity likely reflects asymptomatic but persistent PCR positivity from previous infection, the report said.”

  • Mexico sees deaths twice as high as previous record. Mexican health authorities reported 1,092 coronavirus deaths on Wednesday, the highest toll in one day so far, with total infections surging past 100,000. The number of deaths was more than twice a previous record, and daily infections were also at an all time high of 3,912. The additions bring the total number of known cases to 101,238 and deaths to 11,729. Health authorities have previously said the real number is higher.

  • California: rise in Covid-19 cases raises fears over reopening and protests. The number of coronavirus cases in California is on the rise after weeks of optimism that infections had slowed, raising fears that plans to reopen counties, along with mass protests against police brutality, could accelerate transmission of the virus.According to numbers from Johns Hopkins University, which has been tracking coronavirus cases and deaths, California is one of 20 states that have seen an uptick in cases in the past five days.

  • Coronavirus crisis could cause $25tn fossil fuel industry collapse. The coronavirus outbreak could trigger a $25tn (ÂŁ20tn) collapse in the fossil fuel industry by accelerating a terminal decline for the world’s most polluting companies.A study has found that the value of the world’s fossil fuel reserves could fall by two-thirds, sooner than the industry expects, because the Covid-19 crisishas hastened the peak for oil, gas and coal demand.The looming fossil fuel collapse could pose “a significant threat to global financial stability” by wiping out the market value of fossil fuel companies, according to financial thinktank Carbon Tracker.

  • Spain’s congress voted to approve a sixth and final two-week extension of the country’s state of emergency. It has been in effect since 14 March and Wednesday’s vote means that the exceptional measures that have underpinned one of Europe’s strictest lockdowns will now remain in force until 21 June.

  • The UK’s business secretary Alok Sharma went into self-isolation after beginning to feel unwell in the House of Commons chamber. He was delivering the second reading of the corporate governance and insolvency bill.

  • WHO reports 100,000 new cases a day for five days. The World Health Organization has received reports of 100,000 new cases of coronavirus every day for the past five days, as the outbreak gathers pace in various regions around the world, its director general has said.

  • The WHO director general, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, also said it has resumed trials of hydroxychloroquine , an arthritis drug that had been used to treat Covid-19 patients, after reviewing studies that apparently showed it was dangerous.

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Interesting point. I’m pretty sure the answer is no since he went into quarantine.

Iran reaches new peak in coronavirus transmission

Health authorities in Iran have reported 3,574 new cases of coronavirus, the highest daily count since the outbreak began in the country in February.

The previous high of 3,186, recorded on 30 March, was surpassed on the fourth consecutive day of daily caseloads that have topped 3,000. It comes after Iran eased restrictions aimed at curbing the spread of the virus, but the health ministry spokesman, Kianoush Jahanpour, said that the surge in cases might be the result of wider testing rather than a second wave of infection.

He said that Iran had now conducted more than a million tests.

Nevertheless, the health ministry has been taking no chances and has stepped up a public health campaign in recent days reminding people to protect themselves and observe social distancing, AFP reports.

There has been not been a corresponding rise in death toll. In his daily update on Thursday, Jahanpour said 59 people had died of Covid-19 over the past 24 hours, taking Iran’s overall official toll to 8,071.

A total of 164,270 people have tested positive for the virus.

Watch this country undercount real COVID19 deaths by 200k or something, but then decide to declare Floyd to have died of it so they can acquit the officers.

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Perhaps there is a point that recent new case numbers aren’t equivalent to the new daily case numbers from back in March due to hugely increased testing. I feel like we need a better metric that shows how hot things are that isn’t so closely correlated to the raw numbers of tests performed (maybe there is?).

I feel like new hospitalizations or something would be much better, but all of the reporting systems seem to be tied into new confirmed cases. Any chance that could explain how the rolling 7-day average is ticking up but we aren’t hearing hospitals raising the alarm and things continue re-opening?

Welp I guess we have to bail them out then, too big to fail. No choice. :confounded:

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You can compare them to early May though in the US. Testing now isn’t significantly different from then. There are lots of states on the rise here in the last few weeks. Also if you have an actual reduction in cases increasing testing doesn’t automatically mean more positive results (see: NY/NJ/MI). I do agree with you that cases were likely severely undercounted in March compared to now.

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If summer helps at all it is only some. This thing is absolutely exploding in some warm to hot places in the world right now. India, Pakistan, Mexico, the Middle East, Texas, etc. Even Brazil which is heading into their winter is still in the 70s and humid in much of the country. I think you are right that the US plan is idiotic and woefully inadequate. We are relying on dumb luck and voluntary measures only at this point in most places. We also have little to no regard for human life here and care more about our trinkets than killing grandma. Our entire society is full of sick selfish people and I will be very surprised if we don’t pay a heavy price for it as we move through the year.

Pretty dumb question: I live in a house with my wife and two kids. If one of us was at any point an asymptomatic carrier, that would mean that ALL of us would have to be asymptomatic carriers, right? Nobody in the house has every had any symptoms. Which really means it’s pretty much a lock none of us have had it.

Here is per capita. New daily cases per day per 100,000 population. Still based on 7 day rolling average.

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