COVID-19: Chapter 4 - OPEN FOR BUSINESS

If students cannot wear masks and practice social distancing, then don’t do it.

Either that or use it as an excuse to demand more money.

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It’s a question of jurisdiction.

One interpretation is that the tribe is free to set up checkpoints on roads where it is responsible for maintaining and operating the road, but not on state and US highways where it does not have that responsibility.

Let’s look at the opposite scenario. Let’s say that tribe wants to open a casino on tribal land over the objections of a state still in lockdown mode. On which roads can the state establish checkpoints to hamper traffic in and out of the reservation?

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I’ve gotten takeout a few times over the past couple weeks. Seems like a pretty minimal risk, especially if you take some additional precautions. And overall it probably helps keep me sane enough to stay inside even longer, reducing my overall risk.

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So, let’s use the sex analogy. Sure, condoms for penis-in-vagina sex, but what about oral? I’m fine with unprotected oral sex, so long as she is (and it is always her choice for me…some people don’t like the taste of condoms) despite insisting on a condom when it comes to the good old in-and-out.

Am I being crazy reckless or am I being reasonable about the level of precautions I take?

Is there a level of evidence where you would be okay with takeout or is it going to be a case of you always wondering what we don’t know?

Sounds like the LSAT classes I used to teach. I wouldn’t be comfortable with it at all, and the minute one student gets sick you’re morally obligated to stop the class and have everyone self isolate, but no chance that happens.

Also keep in mind the group of college/post college students who sign up for a live class in June are also the type who have been out partying with their friends for the last two months and will continue to do so through the summer.

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There should be some sort of somber recognition of “100K day”, the point when US COVID-19 deaths official hit six figures. It should be part memorial and part political protest, intended to be a focal point for mobilization the way that Republicans have used 9/11.

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Anecdotal report from Los Angeles: our numbers already suck, and people got a lot worse at social distancing this weekend. A little relatively minor loosening of rules took place and a shitload of people took that to mean it’s over. Lots of reports on social media of people having parties. My family and I went on a Mother’s Day hike on one of the newly-opened trails and saw many people without masks. I will be (pleasantly) shocked if we don’t have a big surge in two weeks. Honestly I think it’s likely nobody will be teaching any classes in hotels in Los Angeles in June, so the decision may not end up being yours.

In an effort to do something for my wife on Mother’s Day we got food delivery last night. My whole family has been rotating the same five or six meals for the last two months, so it’s a big lift to do something different (this is the third time we’ve ordered out). Obviously anything that involves handling stuff that’s been recently handled by other people includes some element of risk, and I guess everybody’s got to decide what they’re comfortable with. This is why the fucknuts all over the place who aren’t using basic mitigation measures piss me off so much. If everybody observed social distancing, wore masks, washed/sanitized their hands religiously, I would feel like food delivery risk was vanishingly low. But that risk goes up if the restaurant workers and delivery people are just doing whatever they want.

Yikes, I definitely would’ve bailed although i can’t see myself ordering from a big chain like that right now. We’ve been getting occasional takeout from our favorite local places to help keep them afloat and not once have i had to deal with another person except the one handing me my food.

fucking olds

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Czech Republic is opening more.

TLDR: Lots of stuff is opening

Here is an overview of the places that are reopening:

1: Shopping centers and restaurants
Shopping centers will open, although restaurants within them will remain closed. It is now permitted to try on clothes, but only after disinfecting your hands. Returned good must be “quarantined” for 24 hours before being put back out for sale.
The outdoor seating area of restaurants and cafes will require tables to be 1.5 meters apart. Staff must disinfect tables and chairs before new customers use them. Facemasks must be worn, except when eating and drinking.

2: Culture
Museums, galleries, and exhibition centers will reopen. Castles and chateaux grounds will reopen, but the insides will remain closed.
Cinemas, theaters, festivals, dances, religious ceremonies, weddings and similar large gatherings will be allowed for up to 100 people.

3: Education
Final year school students can return for final examinations and graduation preparation in groups of up to 15, as can 9th year primary school pupils and (without limits on student numbers) all years of university students.

4: Travel
Seasonal workers, and essential workers from a specific industries, from outside the EU will be allowed to come into the country. They must provide a negative covid-19 test certificate.
Domestic bus and train companies will be able to operate international services. RegioJet will be the first to do so, with buses to Dresden and Berlin starting on Wednesday.

5: Social services
Social services for children and their families, and for elderly people, will resume, but in a limited form and with a strong emphasis on hygiene measures.

6: Hair salons and beauty parlours
Hairdressers, barbers, manicurists, masseurs, beauty therapists, and the like will have to wear double face protection, and disinfect hands or change gloves after each client. All equipment and furniture must also be disinfected after each client.
Clients must remain two meters apart at all times, even in the waiting area.
Opening hours may be extended while these hygiene measures are in place.

7: Sports
Sports training for up to 100 people will be permitted, both indoor and outdoor, for both professionals and amateurs, but spectators are not permitted.

It’s well deserved. Active cases have dropped by 33% since their peak. The number of people hospitalized with covid19 is at its lowest in 6 weeks. Fewer than 1% of covid19 tests have come back positive over the last week. R0 has been below 1 for the last month.

Mask wearing outdoors will not be mandatory starting May 25th. However, masks indoors will be needed until at least the middle of June. Social distancing will continue to be a thing in most indoor environments.

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If I order takeout, I get enough food to cover several meals. How many meals can I order at once to make the risk vs reward at least semi-reasonable to you?

I think local news stations should spend a half hour a day reading obits and interviewing family members.

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Can one of you smart people explain why a vaccine is likely to take 18 months? Because from what I can tell this shit is going to keep happening until the vaccine arrives.

Also, when the vaccine does arrive, put anti-vax fucktards at the absolute back of the line. If you have kids, they have to be up to date or no vaccine for you.

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We tried to save a lousy 10 bucks because of some Mother’s Day deal. All over the twitters that it was the same all over the USA.

Just popping in to say hi and hope everyone is doing well. I’ve completely checked out of all things COVID and politics related for almost 1.5 months and it’s been a massively +EV decision for my mental health and life.

The blow by blow on everything was giving me a huge amount of anxiety and making it hard to even sleep. If you’re feeling fatigued from all the negativity consider hiding under a rock for a while - it works.

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Oh shit, did you start doing this because I mentioned it for poker? It’s great right?

Hows the grinding going btw? I’m still adjusting to online games and started at low stakes to do so but I’m finding it softer than I remember even before black friday where I was a winning nl400 player.

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I am NOT an expert but I’ll give it a shot off the top of my head. (Dan speculating) Not going to try and timetable it cause I’d just be guessing, just listing items that each have several month timeframe and are usually done linearly that takes 5+ years.

  1. Confirming the damn thing works takes time. Give everybody a shot and 2 months later the immunity is gone doesn’t help much. It just takes time to do human trials.

  2. Safety is BFD. It’s easy to F up and cause more harm than good. Immune systems react in unexpected ways sometimes. Again need to inject tons of people and different categories of people in terms of risk factors, age, gender, etc.

  3. Manufacturing is expensive and non trivial. Once the first official production batch is made then it would typically go through a lot more safety and efficacy testing before being rolled out.

  4. Distribution is going to be a shitstorm. At least in 3rd world countries like ‘Merica. Dumb Donnie doesn’t play well with others.

This is assuming that getting a good antigen into a good production system is pretty fast these days. Lots of folks are claiming success here so let’s assume at month 3 it’s already in hand (Oxford candidate based on their SARS work??)

Obviously corners are being cut. Mainly seeing production starting before the other work is done. Gates funding 7 being produced. gilead? making the oxford vaccine. Also expect to see multiple candidates in parallels through testing so risk of failure to have a viable candidate is lower (saves time).

Also saw an approach for testing looking for volunteers to actually get exposed by nasal injection to Covid after getting vaccinated. Usually an ethical no-no but wouldn’t surprise if someone somewhere does this.

Expect to see some efficacy steps truncated at some risk of poor lasting immunity. I doubt much will get skipped in terms of safety. The disaster potential is too big.

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We on the left have consistently said that there’s a problem with right wingers in general not accepting scientific authority. I don’t believe that I should have to figure out the science behind what is and isn’t acceptable and I certainly don’t believe that the majority of Americans are capable of doing that for themselves.

Having trusted experts tell us what is reasonably safe and what isn’t is a valid heuristic. It might not be perfect, but trying to be perfectly safe is too much of a cognitive burden.

Who should we trust to tell us if takeout food is safe? Who should we trust to tell us if vaccinations are safe? Who should we trust to tell us that anthropogenic climate change is happening? If food safety and infectious disease experts tell us that takeout food is safe, when should we reject their advice? If medical experts tell us that vaccines are safe, when should we reject their advice? If climatologists tell us that anthropogenic climate change is happening, when should we reject their advice?

Right now, there are people cherry-picking one study or the words of one expert, possibly taken out of context, to back up what they want to believe. It’s different if you have a consensus among experts.

Your approach seems to be that no matter how much experts agree, they could be wrong, so that it is ultimately your decision.

We’re doing literally nothing so any downward trend you see is just noise

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What comes to my mind is that it’s the poison or dryness or something in the smoke that’s killing some of the covid in someone’s throat or lungs rather than the nicotine.

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