I don’t think you are here Itt enough. We are open season on economists after the White House cubic model fiasco Of zero deaths May 15 a couple of weeks back.
Thanks for posting.
These are dreary times in my head. We’re basically drawing for a “for some reason it will stop growing and go away” type of outcome, exactly what the NOBELL LAUREATE NUMERICIST or whatever was arguing a couple weeks ago–“the exponentially growth always suddenly stops!”
Because no other possible outcome is palatable. There’s no treatment, a vaccine is a moonshot and will be a botched uneven rollout a year from now at best, numbers appear to be creeping up with reopenings or halfassed lockdowns just like we thought they would, weather benefit seems minimal since people in hot climates flock to air conditioning anyways.
This thread is starting to lose traffic because it’s the same old story everyday. We’re resigning to this outcome. 6 months from now we’ll be looking at a ruined economy, 500k to a million dead, a contested election and a complete political crisis.
I hope that nobel laureate guy is magically correct even though his argument is transparently refutable. Our only hope is that this goes away for some reason. And that’s a depressing ass place to be.
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I don’t know who Nobel guy is, must have missed something.
Nice graph here from Axios. Death coming for the red counties. We will see if that changes anything or not.
https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-invades-trump-country-8526833c-f4c1-4a58-b255-fd79500cad09.html
Isn’t the majority of our modeling worthless right now when we consider what our confidence interval is for the data we have to input?
EDIT: Worthless is overstating it.
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I like that people not from the area will have no clue what either of the last two words are. Although I guess Wawa has expanded all the way down to Florida now so it must be more well know.
My mom actually asked me today if it was safe for her to get a hoagie from wawa 
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This is the guy I’m talking about:
Like I said, a very mediocre argument. But him somehow being correct is basically all we’ve got to go off of.
Fyp.
I’ve been toying with the idea of creating a thread about how social media will be viewed as the driving force in the collapse of society. Enabling people like this to have an echo chamber filled with propaganda is seriously harmful.
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The world wasn’t ready for unrestricted internet access.
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Meh, I think they know nurses are perceived as more sympathetic than doctors so it’s a more effective cosplay
I sent this to wirelessbro and asked him if he knew this lady, at first he says he’s not even going to respond, then i said well you say similar things to her like BILL GATES. he responded with below:
“Lol bruh, that lady, me, and millions of others are all saying the same things, because they’re true. How dumb are you, or you just playing dumb at this point? People who disagree with you = clowns. People point out your ignorance - lul. People provide sources to data “lmao I’m not reading that lolllll” - it’s mind blowing really.”
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It’s also way easier to check if a doctor is legit rather than a nurse.
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Come on down Minnesota and Mississippi for states hitting all time high new confirmed cases already today.
We can at least bracket outcomes based on first principles and prior observations of countries further along than the US.
Its really more of a what if but what we’ve done here has been reasonably close so far.
My plateau for May version followed by slow growth from opening is the closest. The big state declines are still negating the growth in other parts of the country.
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Maybe they bowed to pressure and stopped including anitbody tests.
Never mind, might just be a blip. Looks like they’ll have at least 20k test coming in today. https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report
Heh - but maybe it was their anitbody tests got held up for a day and now we know their real testing # for swab tests.
300K+ deaths by end of the year then is still what you think?
Seems plausible when you consider we don’t even need to average 1,000 deaths a day to hit 300k.
i agree, just sucks man
Yes. I have a pretty slow growth for a month then a decline that lasts. This is without a second wave.
On the bottom end when I assumed staying locked down I think I was about 140k.
I’m hoping we hit between 140-300k. I’m fearful that we will ignore what’s happening and really OFB in time for a fall wave with schools sports and church at full strength spreading for at least a couple of weeks.
If I had to put a high end on it I’d say 500k.
I think this is another foul-up on the part of the baby boomers. I am a real baby boomer — I was born in 1947, I am almost 73 years old — but I think we’ve really screwed up. We’ve caused pollution, we’ve allowed the world’s population to increase threefold in my lifetime, we’ve caused the problems of global warming and now we’ve left your generation with a real mess in order to save a relatively small number of very old people.
- PROFESSOR MICHAEL LEVITT
I know lots of “very old people” that would say FU to this guy. Love seeing how that demographic is polling currently (+Biden).
These are my feelings/gut somewhat supported by early data.
We are getting seasonality benefit. That is minimizing some of the OFB stuff.
OFB is a little overstated by the outliers getting lots of news coverage. The majority is staying home or at least taking the reasonable precautions of masks and distancing. Even where places are open. There may be some busy restaurants but not near the number as before.
As for this Leavitt-The impacts on the non olds is going to be significant over time. This is one nasty indiscriminate virus attacking all parts of the body.
Also I contend, the more warm bodies that get infected the more chance of a mutation that makes this thing worse. That’s just math buddy.
And then of course there is the whole carrier problem. Letting the young/healthy run around by definition kills the weak. But I guess that’s now a feature, not a bug.
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500/day for half a year is another 180k.
Yup 300k doesn’t seem far fetched.