COVID-19: Chapter 4 - OPEN FOR BUSINESS

So that dink forced people take their masks off to sit down with him for some dog and pony show, and a day later he has to go into quarantine.

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The outcome vis a vis masks would have been the same. Conservatives would never have been willing to follow Obama’s example. They would have mocked his weakness and gone maskless.

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Like I said, we are still much closer to zero than we are where we need to be. While it is great an essential worker can call up and get a test now, everyone should be tested every 14 days.

So the reality is we are not testing shit. Your ability to now get tested has almost no impact in the scheme of reopening and moving forward. From that standpoint we have gotten almost nowhere.

A couple weekends ago where I live they did a drive through testing blitz where anyone with a single symptom could get a test. I think there was about 500 tests done total and two came back positive and one of those was already suspected to have it before the test because of close contact with a known case.

I don’t think there are a lot of random people who have this and you can’t figure how they got it. Trying to get to herd immunity without a vaccine will be a complete disaster.

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I can’t speak for NY but the opening up of testing where I’m at isn’t so much because of increased capacity in the last several weeks as it is there are so many fewer critical patients who take priority.

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Having trouble getting under 200

Daily confirmed COVID hospital and nursing home deaths since peak (from Cuomo press conference)
April 8: 799
April 9: 777
April 10: 783
April 11: 758
April 12: 671
April 13: 778
April 14: 758
April 15: 606
April 16: 630
April 17: 540
April 18: 507
April 19: 478
April 20: 481
April 21: 474
April 22: 438
April 23: 422
April 24: 437
April 25: 367
April 26: 337
April 27: 335
April 28: 330
April 29: 306
April 30: 289
May 1: 299
May 2: 280
May 3: 226
May 4: 230
May 5: 232
May 6: 231
May 7: 216
May 8: 226
May 9: 207

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Discussion of challenges of easing restrictions in NYC

Testing capacity will not reach 50,000 a day until August at least, officials said. That number still may not be sufficient.

I think the state and city are doing what they can to increase testing and other measures, but there is only so much they can do without federal support.

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Is there a world where we basically go back to normal in places with moderate to low population density, other than people who are old/sick/both, and especially for anyone going in or out of a nursing home / elder care facility? Pretend the place(s) in question have semi-competent political leadership.

It almost seems so simple you’d be able to send people home to do it. “Put these in your nose, lay on your stomach, we’ll call you twice a day to check in.” Maybe they have to monitor vitals, though, to determine when venting is necessary and time is of the essence then.

I already snagged some nicotine and pepcid, but the prescription stuff isn’t going to do us any good to be ahead of the curve on, unfortunately.

As for the forum being ahead of the curve, I’ll always remember the moment I started taking it very seriously. Jman pointed out that China wasn’t locking down major economic hubs unless it was a MAJOR problem. I did the math on roughly the percentage of GDP they were sacrificing, and that was a major holy shit moment.

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Yeah, I bought pepcid as well, and I smoke a few cigars a week to cover the nicotine side. Also started playing golf again and getting the vitamin d.

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considering his favorite president is andrew jackson, more like it’s a surprise that hasn’t been worse

They don’t think our political leaders would march us over a cliff, so they feel like if restrictions are eased, it must be safe. And, when they say…

It’s because they’ve given up on getting through to you and accept that you’re just out of your mind insane and obsessive about this, so they’re rolling with polite niceties. They think you’re nuts. You’re not nuts, rather they’re fucking willfully ignorant, but I’m pretty sure that’s what’s happening here.

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Pence has it. What are the odds he doesn’t?

Ok as a resident sciencebro- I will lay -450 on Witchita’s position.

As far as testing, just testing means shit. It needs to be coordinated carefully to allow for test and trace.

How many are the same person tested multiple in a hospital waiting to get the 2 negatives

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Can’t use high flow nasal cannulas at home they will bleed a tank dry in minutes and concentrators can’t put out the flow necessary. This therapy can only be done safely* In negative pressure rooms. It’s also not tolerated by most patients I’ve seen. Being awake, sick, and on your stomach isn’t a fun place to be.

*by safely I mean not really safe. Studies have been done showing viral particles escaping negative pressure rooms when using high flow O2. You can only really do it right if you have a lock out ante-chamber. Which very few hospitals have connected to any negative pressure room.

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The reality is that the market isn’t able to direct the pandemic response. Any world like the one you describe has a strong government at the helm dictating who needs to stay home, who needs regular tests, hell even who gets priority for ppe. That’s just never happening in the US

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How many daily tests have we been doing nationally? How has that number increased over the last month?

It was flat till the end of April then doubled and has been flat for the last 3 weeks. It doubled to around 25,000 specimens tested daily.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/testing-in-us.html

Re what someone said about treatments etc to protect yourself and your family, the studies linking Vitamin D deficiency and COVID severity are interesting. I’m far from convinced the link is causative and can be helped by supplementation. OTOH, it’s fairly cheap and harmless, so might as well get some.

Where are you guys seeing news that Pence is quarantining? Reports I have found say the opposite.

Latest I read was that he is going to be at the White House tomorrow and is not self isolating.

Correlate Away (Data Complete to 5/2/20):

Social Distancing Index Data Source (No updates since 5/2/20): https://data.covid.umd.edu/
Confirmed New Cases Data Source: https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en

3/11/20-3/17-20 Social Distancing Index:

3/11/20-3/17/20 Confirmed New Cases Trend:

3/18/20-3/24/20 Social Distancing Index:

3/18/20-3/24/20 Confirmed New Cases Trend:

3/25/20-3/31/20 Social Distancing Index:

3/25/20-3/31/20 Confirmed New Cases Trend:

4/1/20-4/7/20 Social Distancing Index:

4/1/20-4/7/20 Confirmed New Cases Trend:

4/8/20-4/14/20 Social Distancing Index:

4/8/20-4/14/20 Confirmed New Cases Trend:

4/15/20-4/21/20 Social Distancing Index:
**

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4/15/20-4/21/20 Confirmed New Cases:

4/22/20-4/28/20 Social Distancing Index:

4/22/20-4/28/20 Confirmed New Cases Trend:

4/29/20-5/2/20 (Partial) Social Distancing Index:

4/29/20-5/5/20 Confirmed New Cases Trend:

Confirmed Cases and Tests Per 100k in Population Data Source: United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

New York/New Jersey vs. Rest of U.S. Cumulative Confirmed New Cases by Week Trend Since 3/11/20 Data Source: https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en

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