I’m not so sure you’re right about that. Oregon doesn’t seem to be reporting on weekends (at least to wherever nytimes draws its data from), but the day over day 7dma went down yesterday for the first time in a long time:
Yeah, numbers here always go down Sat-Mon, and then catch up on Tuesday.
Yeah, but the 7dma should already have that baked in. The weekly average went down, not just the daily numbers. Still, will have to wait a few more days to see if it’s real. You certainly don’t look worse than California though.
I guess I usually look at worldometers, and for some reason, theirs doesn’t actually account for this. I think that they put up bagels for the weekend and then correct them after the fact on Tuesday? I don’t know about NYT though.
Is there any evidence as to what short term post covid “natural” immunity looks like?
At the moment, whenever given the choice I’ve put myself into the riskier situation instead of Mrs Rugby. (E.g. the crowded pharmacy queue in mid surge manila)
Am I fully safe from getting it right now? How fast does that wane? Can I just go licking doorknobs in the covid ward for a while?
Kinda hate the term “natural immunity” tbh. There’s good evidence that long-term T cell immunity is durable and that keeps you from seriously ill, but also antibodies start to wane somewhat within months so you can still get infected and transmit it. That’s all to say no one is fully safe and no one should go around licking doorknobs.
I don’t think we have especially good data on the short term, but if anyone’s seen a good article, I’m sure we’d all like to read it. But it’s really hard to measure exactly how fast and to what degree your immune system protection wanes without either synchronized patients or ethically-dubious challenge trials. It’s also really unlikely that you’re truly immune in the fullest sense. For most diseases, given a large enough innoculum, the infection would likely take hold at least for a bit. That’s probably true for covid, too. But also, what do you mean by fully safe? Is omicron going to reinfect you and kill you? Almost certainly not. Is there absolutely zero chance that no matter what you do, you couldn’t catch a transient case that you pass on to someone else? Once again, almost certainly not. Like, if I caught it and somehow my family didn’t, I’d be the one to do all our external shopping and such, but it’s not like I’d be out hitting up the bars unmasked, even if the main reason for that is because MrsWookie wouldn’t be with me.
Yeah. That’s kind of where I’m at. But curious if there was more significant evidence. I guess reinfection rates post infection over time would be pretty indicative.
You’re probably pretty good for 3ish months unless you’re especially reckless, but where exactly the reckless line lies for the vaccinated, boosted, and nevertheless infected is not at all clear.
Breaking news, Djokovic GET THE FUCK OUT order upheld by the full bench of the Federal Court. That’s the end of the line for his appeals, deportation is now certain.
27 Likes
How about the 3 yr ban? Does he get that? When do we find out?
As it stands he gets the 3 year ban, but it can be waived later if there are compelling reasons to do so. I would bet on it being quietly waived a year from now, on some random pretext.
Narrator: There were zero compelling reasons to do so.
Some of the people in his camp have made it compelling viewing.
Novak Djokovic’s father has hit out at Australia’s federal government in a post on Instagram.
Srdjan Djokovic posted: “The assassination attempt on the best sportsman in the world is over, 50 bullets to Novak’s chest - after all, he gives support to a young 17-year-old player, so that’s Nole, a man, a brother, see you in Paris.”
Nole is the Serbian player’s nickname.
Australia moving up in my expat power rankings
3 Likes
There’s a mosaic of his mother, who claims he was “tortured”, on display at a national museum in Belgrade in which she is depicted as the Virgin Mary.
I had the Rona early/mid Nov (double jabbed no booster). Multiple people in my house caught it last week including it being spread within the household. I did not recatch it (tested every other day at home and 2 PCR tests). I spent a lot of time with my partner in bed where she was masked as was I (but slept in a different room at night).
8 Likes
Probably, but it’d be hard to untangle something like this from a case where your case just drags out a little longer.
Tales from the front line in terms of K-12 schooling in Ohio.
Short story: when you’re playing a game of chicken, you can’t win if the opponent commits to never changing course.
Long story: Following the recent school board election, our local school board has moved from a majority conservative to a slight majority liberal (the swing vote, at least for COVID purposes, seems to vote on “our” side, but I’m not sure how consistent that will be or how that extends to non-COVID topics.) The new board recently imposed some changes in COVID-related protocols.
Previously, to the best of my knowledge: Masks required in grades K-6, optional grades 7-12. If your child comes in close contact with a positive case, you get a letter but you don’t have to quarantine or do anything else if your child has no symptoms and/or is vaccinated. But there were lenient mask exemptions, and no one did any real identification of close contacts, so other than masks not much protective action.
New policy (I think - the communication of this was a disaster): If someone in the classroom tests positive, all children must either quarantine or wear a mask for 10 days following the positive test, regardless of whether they had a general mask exemption.
So what happens in response to greater COVID protocols:
- The school district is immediately sued (multiple lawsuits) by anti-mask parents who believe their child’s right to an education is being denied.
- When exposed children who would not mask in class were sent to the main office, their parents would not pick them up. So some schools had administrative offices filled with 30-40 students because the teachers were being told the (maskless) kids couldn’t be in the classroom, but the parents wouldn’t come pick them up.
- The superintendent sends out a message to the district laying out the new policy, including the “mask or quarantine” requirement, followed by the statement that no child would be denied an education for refusing to wear a mask.
- Some teachers who were in exposed classrooms, who were similarly required to quarantine or mask, just said “fuck it, we’re not masking” and stayed home, which I assume means that they’re just getting a paid vacation for being anti-mask.
It’s possible that I have some details wrong because much of this is happening behind the scenes. But I think a lot of the discussion here–about whether schools should or should not be in person or remote or have different protocols–isn’t taking into account the absolute obstinance and refusal to comply on the part of the anti-mask, anti-NPI side. I genuinely feel sorry for the board members who have to deal with this - the one newly-elected board member that we know personally has already had to get a lawyer because of the multiple lawsuits.
4 Likes
This seems really bad:
https://twitter.com/ronfilipkowski/status/1482550133166329857?s=21
As in for the country bad