My wife and I usually have dinner with her family on Fridays but went camping this weekend and skipped this week. Her mom and brother tested positive on Saturday and her dad tested positive today so that was a real
situation we managed to avoid.
situation we managed to avoid.
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We were invited to my wifeâs cousinâ 50th birthday party last night with about a dozen other people at a restaurant. Passed because of COVID concerns. Then we found out today that the party was cancelled because the cousinâs husband pozzed the night before.
This summer is turning into a real shitshow.
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We are apparently immune. Historical society dinner in May (100) and Funeral (150+) 6 days ago. Host both times so had direct contact with 75% plus at both events.
Both single boosted. Iâve never had symptoms. Wife had a cold in March that repeatedly tested negative.
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Ya not looking good. Went to an engagement party yesterday, it was probably a mix of about 40 people throughout the day with the average crowd being about 15 at a time. We mostly sat outside but still went in the house to get food and such. Welp, the groom-to-be just pozzed this morning. This is my closest known interaction thus far.
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Went to my first indoor concert in forever on Friday; masks were required but a ton of people had them down most of the time to swill beer. Wore a KN95 the whole time except for some drinks off a coke, just waiting it out like apparently a lot are. BTW âHot Pissâ killed as a closer
EDIT: likely ponied but I hadnât seen this one before
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Nice graph, I donât think Iâve seen it here. Clearly Biden has been working hard since day 1 of his presidency.
Bidens secret plan of murdering all the republicans before the 2022 election comes into focus
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This is just kind of life until we get a new vaccine. Waves are getting more frequent, troughs are at higher levels, and mitigation doesnât exist.
Interested to see work on whether we should all revaccinate with a series of the Novavax shots.
The insane thing here is that the reason the blue line was higher for so long is that rural areas have a massive advantage:
- Lower population density = lower natural R0 in those areas (Rt if youâre being a stickler on definitions)
- New variants from abroad are going to enter the country at major airports, which are almost all in big cities in blue states
- A more outdoor-centric lifestyle
That theyâve managed to take that structural advantage and massively blow it by rejecting science and medical experts is just incredible.
Plus the initial wave before anything was known hit NYC the hardest by far which seriously screws the blue line.
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Going forward I donât think blue state Vs red state matters as much as just not being old.
Vaccination matters a lot in avoiding death, keeping up with boosters is significant too.
Yeah, very true, just meant public health mitigations are largely over outside isolated counties it seems. Even the blue states are basically like âu should vax then glglâ.
That was always the endgame. The vax is pretty damn effective at job 1 which is stopping death and serious illness.
That such a large fraction would be morons and a major political party would spread misinformation is the unanticipated part.
Still think the virus still has at least one good punch left.
I have some concerns about the mRNA vax effectiveness as time passes. I really hope we give Novavax a hard look for the already vaxxed. The early effectiveness reports are impressive.
One? Endemic Covid looks like itâs going to settle at around 150,000 dead Americans every year. Thatâs without a more deadly strain emerging. Thatâs around 3 to 10 times more dead Americans then from the flu each year.
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And that doesnât include anything related to Long COVID, plus it appears to be an estimate toward the low end.
I havenât seen the 150,000 quoted anywhere. Where does that come from? Iâm not trying to argue, Iâm generally curious.
Current week pace is like 157k a year. I donât know if it will be 100k a year or 150k a year or 300k a year, but seems like until next-gen vax or therapeutics we are in for what would have been unimaginable annual respiratory illness deaths pre-COVID (then pray long COVID isnât that bad)
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Thanks, thatâs helpful.
It would be an interesting forecast to try to make. Even if you hold a lot of current conditions stable, youâd need to account for things like the changing demographics of the country. I think that persistent COVID infections would actually result in increasing deaths over time as the population ages.