5 days after symptom onset or first positive test.
More asking how many days after exposure be after symptoms.
In the middle of funeral stuff so research time is about zilch.
Whatâs up with Ireland? A couple I know went there two weeks ago for a wedding and caught covid. They tested positive before their flight home so they had to stay an extra week. Pretty sure theyâre triple vaxxed as well.
Have you had COVID?
- More than once
- Once
- Most likely yes, but never got a positive test
- No
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My no vote is an I donât think so
The stuff suggesting R0 of 18 is just wtfbbq territory though
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Yeah, seems like some incredibly faulty math involving just multiplying the degree of immune escape from the new variant relative to the old by the R of the old variant and calling it clickbait. Instead itâs, uh, mostly just a degree of immune escape relative to the old variant.
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I womder how this compares to the overall population. We have to be way abover average, right?
By comparison, there have been about 4 million confirmed cases in the Czech Republic out of a population of a bit over 10 million people. About 271,000 are suspected reinfections. Safe to say that about 30% of people living in the Czech Republic have tested positive for COVID.
Speaking of the CR, cases are surging but the current number of cases is still really low. That will change soon though. Iâll worry about it when I get back.
Finally learned the name of someone with it: myself.
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My son has had a persistent cough and runny nose for like a week and a half. Keeps testing negative, but day care class has had 3 positive tests out of 14 kids in the last month. Just seems impossible that he hasnât gotten it in that time span and he hasnât brought it home to me and my wife.
We all got OG Omicron in January and were 2x vaxxed + boosted when that hit so maybe we just had enough immunity to not get symptoms this time around?
bit of confusion here for me maybe someone can clear up - Iâve noticed outside of our peaks like in february this year, we are seeing a pretty stable 7 day average on deaths ~400ish. My q is - given that so many of us kind of did a small sample experiment by heading to WSOP, afaik all of us boosted/vaxxed either didnât pozz at all or got very minimally sick - who the hell is this still killing and how is it in such high numbers? Is this just going to slowly work its way through the unvaxxed/undervaxxed population with repeated infections til it eventually kills everyone it can, or mutates to become far less deadly? Who is this still killing?
Very, very heavily weighted to the elderly even if vaxxed and boosted.
Here are the MA numbers for the last two weeks. It has looked like this for awhile. Olds in MA like 95% vaxxed and 36% two boosters, cant find the one booster number off hand.
80 somethings NGMI in a world where we get infected with COVID three times a year.
Actually found booster numbers, olds 80% boosted.
MA was like a 55/45 unvaxxed/vaxxed split for deaths last I saw, cant find an updated number. Vaxxes obviously still very helpful for preventing death, but you are still at risk if you are old. Will have to see where excess death numbers and life expectancy shakes out.
Latest hospitalization rates for CDC were for May '22, roughly 1/1000 hospitalization rate for O65 boosted populaton for May '22.
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LG already covered the old people. Also probably a lot of people who are unvaxxed who are catching it for the fourth or fifth time now where complications outweigh any acquired immunity they have. Like take the average 50 year old Trumper in the Midwest, picture them in your head, and imagine them after three or four unvaccinated bouts with covid.
Considering that they live in areas completely letting it rip and that they arenât taking any precautions, it doesnât take a super high fatality rate to add up.
thanks, thatâs sort of what I feared. of all the potential outcomes of this - so far, if I can be optimistic, this doesnât seem like the worst worst one (provided we dont uncover horrific long term effects from either virus or the vaccines, and it doesnt mutate in a worse way)
IDK how well the data actually captures all those kind of deaths. Like you got COVID three times unvaxxed fifty pounds overweight and a smoker then die of a stroke six months later. Thats kind of why I want to see where the excess death and life expectancy numbers shake out, that will tell more of the story (would still miss QOL from long COVID issues, but thats another discussion)
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Yup I agree, I expect excess death to still be higher than 99% of people realize this year.
I could certainly paint worse outcomes than what is happening. That said, I think your parenthetical risks are real (outside of long-term vax risks, safety risks seem unlikely risk is just ADE type stuff) and likely to get worse from here to some degree. Dont really buy the like 1 in 5 people get debilitating long COVID stuff, but I also think we are probably on a path to catch this like twice a year or something until we get better vax tech and dont feel great about what repeated infection is going to do for long-term health on average.
Would bet on the next variant being more severe rather than less severe, but weâll have to see where that goes. Best case would be a lucky dice roll that gets something that looks like Omicron level severity but also provides better immunity than Omicron infections.
But broadly I agree with CW. I dont think this is society ending or that its likely anyone here dies of COVID any time soon, but I think we are going to be unhappy with what life expectancy and QOL of older age and excess death numbers look like in the medium-to-long term. I definitely have moved up my retirement plans.
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agree with all of that, and that scenario you present of some shittier health outcomes long term is far better than what I feared being in play in the last two years. letâs hope it stays that way
We are going to get way better vaccine technology at some point, for example:
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