I’m pretty sure I’m now in the clear from my one unmasked game. I tested negative 3 days out and 6 days out, with no symptoms. Not 100% clear but gotta be over 90%.
Other than that I’ve been diligent with the N95, so my biggest risk is probably sleeping in the hotel room which has to be pretty low risk.
No but I think it’s reasonable to guess it’s in the 40-70% range for a maximum of 1-2 months then drops to no better than 40-45%.
If I shared your concerns about too many boosters being a long term net-negative, I would wait for the updated booster in the fall. That said, if you’re coming to the states and you don’t want to catch it, you better bring some N95s/KN95s and wear them indoors in public.
Yeah I’ll wear masks some of the time, although prevalence is actually higher in Australia right now than the US.
This is from Derek Lowe (guy who runs a pharma drug lab, I’ve posted him before, I think he’s good), it’s about an earlier paper (from Feb) but still seems relevant:
I have been getting an increased number of questions about the whole original-antigenic-sin idea over the last few weeks, I have to say, so this paper is timely. But there’s a lot of confusion out there. Some people have been using this as a reason not to get a booster shot, for example, but what I take from this latest work is that that’s completely the wrong way to look at it. It’s the original vaccination that did the imprinting, if that’s what’s going on, and the booster is just not going to imprint you any more.
So right now I guess I’m planning to get the shot. I had close to zero side effects from all of my first three so that’s not a concern.
I mean I guess it makes sense that the whole problem is that the immune system gets locked in on the first exposure. The theory is that subsequent exposures don’t fix this, so it would make sense if they also don’t exacerbate it.
I don’t worry much about imprinting being a thing because if it turns out to be a thing in any meaningful sense then I’d rather be dead then face what happens to society.
That’s a bit dramatic. It basically just means people get sick a bit more frequently. Also it’s very likely possible to make vaccines that dodge the imprinting by targeting a different bit of the virus.
Shit finally got me. Just tested positive. Have had a fever of like 101 since last night. Only did the lil at home test and its positive.
Fever my only symptom so far.
Wasn’t being as careful as I could’ve been but honestly after being locked away for like 2 years…
Been in full isolation since I’ve had the fever.
covid everywhere right now, getting the ‘covid and X’ stuff I hadn’t seen since NYC. Covid and kidney stone, covid and cellulitis, covid and appendicitis all today. No admissions for covid.
I guess it beats stabbed in the chest and covid, ripped out own eyeballs and covid, murdered someone and stabbed themselves in the chest and covid. Cali isn’t hardcore I guess.
I am completely resigned to getting it next week. I can’t imagine my little redneck town in Michigan. Isn’t teeming with Coronovirus. My Dad was very well known in the area. Going to be a ton of people and I’m on of the main hosts and speakers so I can’t really wear a mask.
Just hoping it’s mold. Nice typo from the microbiologist. I meant mild.
It’s hard to say. I am not sure we have especially good data yet on clinical outcomes for BA.5, and then, it’ll be really hard to untangle how severe it is relative to the Wuhan strain, because BA.5 is infecting a very small number of truly naive individuals. The vast majority of people out there (at least in the US) have multiple shots, multiple infections, or both. So if Wuhan kills 1% out of the gate, but BA.5 kills 0.1% now, is that because BA.5 is more mild, or because prior exposure offers 90% effectiveness against death, or some of both? Around me, we’re not seeing as many hospitalizations per reported case now than with the delta wave, and we’re almost certainly underreporting cases more now than during the delta wave, but there’s also more vaccination and prior infection now than during the delta wave.
The virus doesn’t really have an an evolutionary pressure not to kill us. It only has a pressure not to kill us so fast that it can’t spread to another host. That is pretty easy to accomplish. But it does have a pretty tight constraint on evolution: its spike protein must bind our ACE2, and our ACE2s aren’t changing except on the scale of human generations, not on covid cycles. So it’s not like there’s some vast infinity for it to keep getting more contagious and more virulent as it continues to escape our immune response.
There’s evolutionary pressure to specialize at infecting the upper respiratory tract, though, because that facilitates transmission. That leads to milder illness vs infections in more important parts of the body. There’s also some selection pressure to have the host well enough to be wandering around in public rather than bedridden. So while I agree there isn’t really any selection pressure to kill less people, I think there are selection pressures from which killing less people will be an indirect result.
I just spent a week in WI and now heading to MI for a week near Clare. So far I have dodged the bullet.
I think we’re seeing that in real time, how many people are more comfortable being out and about now that the perceived danger of the virus is lower? (I’m not knocking anyone for having a more relaxed posture)
Great, headed out tomorrow for vaca to San Fran and then Seattle which I’ve heard are both hotspots right now. (Well, I actually heard California and Washington)
Non zero chance my Dads name will be on the main hotel marquee if you come into town Monday.
That’s an awfully big jump that isn’t supported by much.
Everywhere in America is a hotspot.
Edit: Looking at some more states, New England and Hawaii don’t look that bad, but almost everywhere else looks pretty rough
Yeah nobody that I know around home/work/Boston area has had it recently.
Based on the tennis population we are in a lull here in the Philly burbs. Was having guys cancel left and right during the spring season. nobody for the past 5 weeks.
https://twitter.com/joeyfox85/status/1545148594289868802?s=19
Check out this thread. I’m someone who has taken covid very seriously from the beginning, but at this stage some of these precautions feel unhinged. Swim goggles on planes in July 2022? If ba5 is really that bad then we’re all toast anyways unless going back to full hermit lockdown mode imo. Which seems crazy with current mortality rates.
I’d wear swim goggles on a plane if it would significantly reduce my risk of catching a common cold.