COVID-19: Chapter 10 - Mission Achomlished!

“they do not cluster on a phylogenetic tree and have a whole Artic primer sequencing amplicon of Omicron in an otherwise Delta backbone”

Just as I suspected.

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There’s no real way to distinguish people who may have been in proximity to an infected person but not in contact with any virus, people who had a transient infection that their immune system immediately flushes, and people with an asymptomatic infection but who never bothered getting a test. Maybe you could set something up to test this where you deliberately expose people to the virus, but good luck with the ethics and then getting enough volunteers to have enough of a sample size when you subsequently send them back out into the world to see how many subsequently get infected.

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Not so sure about this. I have seen antibody tests that are specific enough to be able to pick up the difference between vaccinated and unvaccinated antibodies, at least I remember it at one point.

It means we should be really skeptical of Dan’s link. Sequencing mixed populations can be a hard problem, particularly with the Artic primer methods. There are more sophisticated methods out there that might be able to resolve a deltacron variant confidently, but I don’t have much faith in this result.

There are antibody tests that can test for the existence of anti-capsid antibodies instead of anti-spike antibodies, but obviously, such a person is getting a test rather than not bothering.

Okay. That makes sense.

And some of those (especially asymptomatic/untested) would give some immunity.

So a population that had been exposed to covid but not had symptoms or a positive test, would on average have more immune response due to that subset, but you wouldn’t be able to assume anything for individuals.

Maybe? I might hypothesize that it could, but I also would not be surprised if it didn’t generate much effect.

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Day 10 or 11 since symptoms. I still tested positive on the antigen test yesterday.

My view is I’m okay to leave isolation. The rules I’ve seen suggest 10 days, or else 7 days with a negative antigen test.

Nothing says you have to stay in isolation past 10 days if you test positive right?

Mrs rugby staying in a separate hotel last night and tonight (just to be extra cautious), but I think we are okay from tomorrow.

Thoughts? I cant just stay in iso infinitely.

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Criminals getting rid of bodies in crematoriums is a common plot device in lots of crime dramas.

Unless you’re talking specifically about crematorium regulations. Most shows don’t get that far into the weeds.

10 days is enough. Wear a good a mask.

Up to Mrs Rugby as to when you can resume normal activities.

that’s what I advise people

We’ve suspected this itt, but missing 3 million. Wow.

Ozark I think.

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I recall a situation a few years ago where the crematorium got behind and just started tossing bodies out back in the woods.

Yikes, I’m getting old. This was 20 years ago…

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I don’t have any reliable info for you, but I can say that I can’t imagine that I’d have the patience/resolve isolate for 10 full days beyond when my symptoms cleared, or keep my wife isolated that long. Kudos to you for your commitment to safety.

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This was also a plot point in some TV show I watched a little while back. L&OSVU maybe?

Its 10 or 11 days from when symptoms started. Which seems to be a pretty common rule.

Certainly the rule in the Philippines.

Ahh, I misunderstood. Thought you went 10+ full after you felt good again. Jives with CDC recommendations to isolate for 5 full days after symptoms start or a positive test, then continue fully masked at home around others until day 10, at which point your isolation can end, assuming you are free of fever for 24 hours and other symptoms have at least improved.

Welcome back!

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Yeah well that is my assumption. Like what we’ve all learnt over the last couple years is biology is complicated and there are degrees or everything. Like there’s not “getting infected”, there’s high and low viral loads. There’s asymptomatic and symptomatic but there’s a lot of borderline stuff in between. There’s not “immune” or “naive”, it’s all gradations in between. I would assume there exist infections so low-level and localised that even PCR doesn’t see them. But it’s just a conjecture. I have no idea how you’d test that idea.

Edit: But that’s much more plausible to me than an initial viral dose initiating an immune response even though infection doesn’t occur, that sounds very unlikely. The amounts involved are incredibly trivial for initial dose.

I don’t wanna start another booster argument like happened with Keed, but need some advice. Fwiw i would have gotten boosted at 4 months if it had been a fairly easy process/allowed.

I’m coming up on 5 months since I got my 2nd Pfizer. I live 20 miles south of San Diego border, so me getting my booster most likely requires a multiple hour wait in a slow moving line. In the past I’ve hired a driver but those people have lost their work visas during Covid and it’s looking like that’s harder to find now. I’ve heard horror stories about wait times recently but maybe that was for holidays. Part of me thinks they’re intentionally slowing it down to discourage non essential travel.

I’m 38 and in pretty decent health/shape. No underlying conditions. Technically overweight but exercise regularly and have muscular build. No regular exposure to compromised health individuals.

One one hand, dealing the border while omicron is raging seems dumb. But at the same time it seems like I’m probably gonna get omicron in the next few months, so getting boosted asap is the best play.

I had a trip to Oregon planned in late March so if omicron doesn’t slow enough before then to make the border less daunting, that’d be when I’d plan to get the booster. Maybe by then better info/new booster would be avaliable?

Appreciate any advice.

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