Isn’t that exactly what the data is saying so far? I mean BA.2 appears to be taking off right on the heels of BA.1 outbreaks.
So what do you got? Over 6 mo or under?
As explained earlier, that discussion was based on whether or not Covid variants could spread through the population without causing symptomatic infection. It’s cut out into a screen shot instead of a link to remove that context.
That’s not what has happened with delta and omicron, which both have caused increased symptomatic infection in the vaccination and therefore spread. Germ theory and the patterns of respiratory viruses weren’t disproven, it fell into exactly the pattern we said that respiratory viruses follow
That’s the kind of detail you miss when you get your information from screenshots and generally not knowing what’s going on.
I’m confused. How are the Captains claiming that COVID defies germ theory? Explain it to me like I haven’t studied any bio since high school.
My above post answers this question
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we need someone to score the nightly proceedings itt for posterity
Yeah, I stand by the post. You want to pretend that “at an appreciable rate” means “not at all,” but it’s plainly obvious that’s not true, especially considering the post I made two posts later that – magically – you never bother to quote. And – now this is important – even if I was totally wrong in that post, it’s not an indictment of germ theory or evidence that I was mistaken about germ theory or evidence that covid defies germ theory.
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change ya scrubs, nga
Dont we have containment thread for this?
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One, that’s not what germ theory is. Two, covid is transmitting between vaccinated people a whole lot less efficiently than between unvaccinated people. Thanks for playing.
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involuntary ass-ejaculate on lab coat
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None of this is unexpected
Vaccines
Variants
Vaccine Escape is easier than vaccine morbidity to observe. Remember, evolution is the product of natural selection and natural selection is acting to increase spread. Morbidity is just a side effect. If it gets too severe and interferes with spread there will be selection towards less morbidity. Until then we seem to be in a range where selection doesn’t prefer more or less morbidity.
Still escape is hard. But the selection scheme is currently massive. Tons of infections means a huge pool of variants is constantly being generating and our going about normal life means more than ample opportunity to spread.
If we did not have the vaccines and we did not lock down, then the mortality would be massive. The same variant generation frequency would escape prior infection immunity as easily as it escapes vaccine immunity. And it certainly seems that those with prior infection and no vax are a serious morbidity risk compared to the vax only.
My mom constantly though every sick kid had some serious bowel problem. Finally after 4 kids and 6 grandkids, #6 did require intestinal surgery as a baby. But boy did we hear how she was right, even though she’d not been on dozens of other occasions.
We need to be wary of escape and increased morbidity. Eventually that prediction will be correct. But not this time.
So far we have had Delta-moderate increased spread and increase morbidity and no significant escape and Omicron-significant increased spread, at least moderate to significant escape, and at worst neutral morbidity.
Be wary but not paranoid. I appreciate the early warnings here even if they come with some hyperbole. I can filter out what I perceive are the tendencies of the posters. I do feel for those new to thread.
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I’m fairly well convinced it’s spreading in vaccinated/previously infected cohorts at an appreciable rate. Seems hard to argue otherwise at this point, but you do you.
How about you ask them? My thesis is that they can’t give a coherent explanation for how what I said means any of the three: that covid is an exception to germ theory, that I am wrong about germ theory, or that germ theory itself is wrong. They just like posting a screen shot where they think I’m obviously wrong, and use germ theory language to troll.
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Can covid be described as transmitting between vaccinated people a whole lot less efficiently than between unvaccinated people but still significantly enough for people to consider adjusting their behavior?
My stance is that if mass vaccination can turn covid into being about as serious as the flu, that’s good enough and no further mitigation is needed. I suspect the flu transmits in part due to asymptomatic carriers and all respiratory disease spread has some component of asymptomatic spread.
Just reposting to marvel at how Jbro and JT skipped right past a study showing how vaccinated people are less likely to transmit covid without blinking.
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JT, at least, seems to think that his beliefs are consistent with germ theory.
If you’re a relative expert on germ theory, I think it would be more useful to get you to explain how they are wrong than for them to give their reasons for why you are wrong.
Is there more to applying germ theory here other than to say that there exists a virus that is the pathogen that causes COVID-19 and can be spread from individual to individual?
Again, I cannot, because they have not even bothered to specify which of the three ways I might be wrong about covid and germ theory they think is the case.
Also that the pathogen has to replicate within an individual to both spread to others and cause disease.
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Idk 6 month part doesn’t seem crazy to me.