COVID-19 (2): Turns out it's going to be pretty bad actually

What about a history club?

One annoying thing my drugstore did early on is if they were out of something like hand soap they would just move other things into the empty space. So I end up wandering up and down aisles multiple times looking for it. Canā€™t really do that with TP though since it takes up so much space.

I just think the simplest explanation is that everything is being undercounted and the reason hospitals arenā€™t getting overwhelmed is a combination of people being turned away (come back when you have trouble breathing!) or people just avoiding the hospital in general. Lots and lots of people out there have crummy insurance and avoid the doctor at all costs, some of them will end up living with chronic pain for their whole lives because of how shitty of an experience going to the doctor tends to be.

But the absolute worst part is that weā€™re never going to know what actually happened. Unless someone invents a cheap and quick test, weā€™re just never going to know how widespread this is going to be.

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Thereā€™s always a tweā€¦ Simpsons episode.

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FWIW, I would assume that because of the devastation to their infrustructure a lot of the population there is probably still immunocompromised.

Surprised that people thought the heat was gonna do anything.

Itā€™s like nobody here has ever been to Spain.

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Wait what? How did this occur?

Hope your roommate doesnā€™t have a problem with it. :slight_smile:

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My work mate got his sleeve caught in an industrial lathe, can comfim its extremely hard to remove your hand using this method as it breaks everything 1stā€¦:disappointed_relieved:

Grocery store risk

Individual shoppers not so much especially if they wear masks and gloves and wash or sequester items prior to use. Not 0 but low.

Shoppers collectively. Low x thousands per day is still probably some infections. Especially considering some assholes refuse to wear masks

Workers- I think the stats are going to show a high infection rate. Maybe even second only to healthcare workers. Pretty much grocery and home improvement stores open.

If you want 0 risk, delivery only. Tip VERY well as you are paying others to increase their risk.

We all assume small risks every day that we donā€™t think about. Now that we are thinking about it, itā€™s understandably hard to process. I try to get my risk down to What I perceive is equivalent to crossing a normal side street. I still watch for cars. But Iā€™m also not playing frogged on a busy four lane road.

Planes rarely crash. Cars do all the time. People canā€™t wrap their heads around that. This is that on steroids.

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This. People still went to the grocery store once a week in China and they pretty much brought this to a halt. Wear a mask, change clothes and shower as soon as you get home, wipe everything down. This is exactly what my boss told us her family in Chonqing was told to do.

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I just realized that Trump is so despicable that I bet lots of us have a tiny part of our brain that wants COVID deaths in the U.S. to get to six-figures just so he doesnā€™t do a victory lap. Clearly, we want deaths to stop immediately, but thatā€™s seriously how horrible Trump is, that even the smallest part of us could think it. It actually makes me more angry at him that the thought could even enter my head. It was the same with his back and forth with Kim Jong Un. There was this sliver of me that was rooting for Kim.

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Feels like overwhelmingly likely the virus has not done any stealth spreading.

However I am getting an antibody test on Monday and it will be really weird if I have antibodies. (Same for the Stanford study going on right now)

Folks who are eligible to be tested include:

  • Those with symptoms who are 65 years of age or older;
  • Those with symptoms who have underlying chronic health conditions; and
  • Those who are subject to a mandatory 14-day quarantine period because of a confirmed COVID-19 exposure (with more than seven days of quarantine remaining).

You can schedule a test ā€” if you meet the criteria ā€” by going to lacovidprod.service-now.com/rrs.

Not me.

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Itā€™s not necessarily tiny.

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Spain wasnā€™t exactly hot when this was spreading there - lows in the low 40s in Madrid. And itā€™s dry.

And again, Iā€™m never saying heat is going to kill it. Just that weā€™ve yet to see a hot, humid place completely explode like China, Iran, Italy, NYC/NJ, France, Spain, etc.

Given the feckless govt and population density of places like Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Phillippines, etc. - if it was as easy to spread there as NYC Iā€™d expect them to be completely crippled by now.

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Canā€™t put Vietnam in the list. Theyā€™ve been South Korea level elite in their approach.

Had the same thought earlier today and felt bad about it

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Is it even possible to reach herd immunity while keeping infection numbers low enough to not overwhelm hospitals?
The US needs roughly 20 years of 35000 new infections/day to reach ~70% immunity. That is if a recovered patient gets and keeps immunity which is not a given at this point. Keeping those 35k new infections from turning into exponential spread is also quite a feat.

And theyā€™ve barely had any cases. So it could be elite + hot/humid really helps. Anyway thereā€™s a ton of other hot/humid places that seem to always be ā€œjust about to explodeā€ but never do.

Obviously I donā€™t know anything for sure. But Iā€™d bet money that thereā€™s something to these studies which suggest the virus has a sweet spot in cold dry air.

However Iā€™m not sure it matters enough to even make much of a summer pause. Maybe the effect is just enough to keep a slow burn from becoming a bonfire.