That’s why I’ve said keep an eye on if the US is still plowing full steam ahead with building 100s of 1000s of ventilators. If so I bet they try to push the next wave a lot farther - probably with some kind if half-hearted guidelines that seniors and people at risk isolate themselves.
Maybe and hopefully, but there’s not much evidence either way.
Yeah I specifically do not think it’s likely it will just go away like SARS did, or even a big summer pause. But we can always hold out hope I guess. I do think it could be easier to manage until it gets cold again.
I don’t think any of the points against are fatal for the optimistic theory except for the antibody testing. But that point is probably fatal unless you add an epicycle for higher false negative rates for tests of mild cases. Also, I think South Korea’s results are inconsistent with the theory. They are pretty aggressively tracking cases and seem to be successfully containing the spread of a pretty dangerous disease. Under the optimistic theory, their apparent control has to be an illusion, because they aren’t identifying and tracing some of the asymptomatic cases, so why aren’t they getting a bunch of cases with no known origin? And why is their rigorously tested pool getting so sick?
There’s obviously undertesting, but I suspect the worst testers (in the developed world) are catching at least like 35-40% of cases.
Definitely possible that it reduces its spread over the summer if it’s like SARS coronavirus. Hopefully, governments don’t take that as a reason to not work their asses off to get an effective treatment and/or cure for it though because that shit’s gonna come back.
My point was is you can’t say they would be crippled if heat wasn’t a factor. Countries like Vietnam and Singapore may be hot, but you can tell by their approaches that they wouldn’t be crippled even if their climates were magically changed to cold and dry.
Indonesia, on the other hand, seems like a clusterfuck with respect to their response. So if they’re not crippled, then maybe the heat is a factor. Last I read, their testing is very minimal, so it hard to know how bad they have it right now.
If you think Vietnam is doing a good job, which seems to be the consensus. Then you can’t really put them in the feckless govt group.
Is SK doing antibody testing? If they’re doing contact tracing and swabs they would only be picking up active infections.
People who have been in close contact with an infected person?
I don’t think it matters. In the stealth epidemic scenario, then all the contact tracing doesn’t work, and you should be seeing lots of cases materializing from the ether, which isn’t happening.
You’re right - Vietnam is in the handled it well category.
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My mom wanted to order Chinese take out/delivery, but the place has closed. All they do is take out, there’s nowhere to sit inside.
Is Japan in the handled it well category?
Seems like everywhere is doing some stab at antibody testing now - mostly in controlled stories. Anecdotally I’m getting antibody tested on Monday so stay tuned.
AFAICT @JohnnyTruant is mostly right about paying other people to shop for you, as long as you are in an area with low demand.
However, If, like most of us, you are in an area with 2+ weeks waiting time for delivery, then you should be doing your own shopping as long as you are young and healthy. My Gran can’t get a delivery time because of those of us clogging up the system. Leave those rare delivery spots for the elderly and immunocompromised.
It seems similar to the need for wearing masks. Don’t buy masks off Amazon right now because health care workers need them more. Make your own. Same for food. If you can make your own food (what up @Rexx) then great. But most of us don’t have huge gardens and need to purchase this stuff. Ordering food online is similar to buying N95 masks off Amazon in most parts of the country right now.
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Any idea of the test accuracy… best I heard of so far is 60% (like seeing a fortune teller)
To be fair the White House science advisor doesn’t believe heat does ANYTHING to ANYTHING.
All the places by me are still open as far as I can tell. Even a bunch of restaurants like a sushi place that had like 8 uber eats guys standing around outside on Sunday. Surprised the hell out of me.
Including false positives? Because as long as it doesn’t do that I’m cool with it.