COVID-19 (2): Turns out it's going to be pretty bad actually

TIWTAB

Yeah, I think youā€™re correct.

There are lots of things I donā€™t understand about this. I tried looking for the source study the article is based on; it doesnā€™t seem to be available online.

The sewage study also seems odd. How exact is their finding?

This one references the same people from Monday, and says ā€œat least 2,300ā€ people are infected in a metro area with 446 cases (same number as quoted in the Globe piece). Now it says ā€œas many as 115,000ā€ people, and 446 cases was as of March 25.

I once again ask myself why all this information has to be laundered through journalists who donā€™t take precision or context very seriously at all, apparently.

Cuomo update

Recent daily deaths
April 2: 562
April 3: 630
April 4: 594
April 5: 599
April 6: 731
April 7: 779
April 8: 799

Only 200 new COVID hospitalizations and 84 new ICU admits yesterday (both way down).
Intubations flat from yesterday, but overall intubation trend is down.

Bullshit. Yang regularly mentioned that it was a decades-old idea. It was in his interest to point out that it wasnā€™t such a radical idea.

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It does seem like NY has successfully flattened the curve. Which is good news in the sense that it means social distancing and staying at home works which we have also seen in Europe.

To a normal human being that should say to keep this up for as long as needed. Obviously Trump will not share that sentiment though and thatā€™s where I see this heading. Premature back to work and now that this is prevalent everywhere wave 2 will be much more dramatic and worse. Hope Iā€™m wrong about that but it seems like where we are headed.

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I would say that any delivery driver doing contactless drop off probably has a pretty small chance of spreading the virus to their customers let alone wide spread infection.

Iā€™m thinking of the person who handles all my groceries prior to delivery.

China denies ā€˜cover-upā€™ and defends WHO

The Chinese government has rejected ā€œunfair and unjustā€ allegations that it tried to ā€œcover upā€ the coronavirus outbreak in the city where it began.

Zhao Lijian, a foreign ministry spokesman, said China had been ā€œopen, transparent and responsibleā€ in informing the world about the epidemic.

He said it ā€œtook us some time before we knew more aboutā€ the virus, which was officially first detected in the city of Wuhan, in Hubei province, late last year.

China is widely considered to have concealed the extent, severity and even existence of Covid-19 during the early stages of the outbreak

On Wednesday, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo accused China of not being transparent about the scale of the outbreak in Wuhan.

On Thursday Lijian hit back, suggesting the virus might not have originated in Wuhan and could have emerged ā€œin any city, country or region in the worldā€.

He also defended the World Health Organization, after US President Donald Trump accused it of being ā€œvery China-centricā€.

Italy new cases and deaths both slightly up today. Definitely thinking that 20k total deaths estimate is looking nonsensical still.

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great job all around imo

https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1217043229427761152

Italy is going to hit their IMHE projection for total all time deaths this weekend and likely still have 400-600 deaths a day for a while.

First-party grocery delivery services are better than going to the store yourself. Third-party services are worse.

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The end game of all this is really interesting to me. At some point we have to open things back up with the awareness that we will likely see a second wave when we do. The hope is that we flatten the curve for long enough that the 2nd wave doesnā€™t overwhelm our hospital capacity until we reach a point of herd immunity. This is the type of thing that an intelligent administration would be calculating out the appropriate timeline for, but this administration will likely just go by whichever way the wind happens to blow Trumpā€™s toupee any given day.

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Iā€™m obviously not defending Trumpā€™s handling of the pandemic. But of course the Chinese government covered up the epidemic in December and January and are lying about it. They imprisoned whistleblowers ffs!

I usually am almost completely in agreement with your point of view on almost everything, but not here. For one, if every single household in the US tried to use a delivery service they would be overwhelmed. In many places, there are two week waits or more. These wait times would absolutely explode if everybody used them.

Iā€™m going to continue shopping for my family using my RZ mask and being very careful, and I guarantee that Iā€™m less of a risk to the shopping ā€œprosā€ than they are to me. Many of them are very cavalier because they are generally young.

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why Donā€™t they just have the bulk shoppers have their own time slot so they can work efficiently and not be around everyone else?

I see them going around with individual orders. Seems like it would make more sense to have them divide and conquer. Joe you are canned veggies- sally you grab the frozen meals etc.

Then have a warehouse space to fill orders from the collected stuff (based on that days orders).

Maybe limit them from pulling 100% off the shelves.

With orders way up it seems like they shouldnā€™t be using the single shopper model. Time to reinvent the process.

(I think there is a true warehouse model-pea pod?). Just talking about instacart I see locally.

This pope is the Tom Steyer of popes. While he may not get your support he has really strong takes on societal issues.

I think heā€™s a good egg.

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