COVID-19 (2): Turns out it's going to be pretty bad actually

Apparently a colleague of my wife’s 2 year old has had an infection on his foot for the past few weeks. They have had a few Skype doctors appointments and at the last one they were given antibiotics and told it should clear up in 5 days or so. Then, a day or so later, the doctor phoned them back and said it was probably COVID. That she’d spoken to colleagues and they’re seeing this happen a lot in kids, that it presents as secondary infections like that and conjunctivitis etc., and that there’s been an increase in them lately.

I’ve not been following stuff closely the last week or so, but I haven’t seen anything like this and it sounds like vague nonsense and makes me lose faith in Parisian GPs (or that my wife’s colleague can’t follow what doctor’s say). Is that fair, or has there been anything on COVID in young kids doing this?

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Most GPs are going to miss that.

I mean, who knows, but there is a strong selection pressure for the virus to become less lethal over time.

Thanks, my skepticism is that there’s no way any of these symptomless kids will have been tested here, and if the secondary infections come from the weakening of the body then would that even be the case in symptomless children? Whereas the story I got was that this was a particular feature of it in young kids. Plus, even here in Paris then surely general infections in young kids must still swamp any that hit kids with COVID, given it’s still a fraction of the population who have it. But I have kept all this to myself apart from posting here as what the hell do I know? (Answer: not much.)

Interestingly, it seems that many stores have really ramped up social distancing in a big way despite restrictions supposedly loosening…

Now there are lines outside of nearly all shops. The Tesco Express that used to not have a line out the door now does in order to maintain proper social distancing. Same for a few other places I passed. I wonder if they were fined or warned for not having one.

Looks like the Czech Republic got their hands on Favipiravir which is that Japanese drug that was apparently really effective against covid-19.

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Sheeeeeeeeeeeit.

Same here in Canada. Probably part of what’s going on is that workers are complaining that they will quit if conditions aren’t improved.

There was social distancing going on when waiting on line in stores weeks ago. There wasn’t a maximum occupancy. The fact that every open store is now doing it makes it look as though they got some policy change sent from the government on # of people allowed per square meter. It’s not like Tesco employees have a union.

But yeah, wouldn’t be surprised if some complaints were lodged to push it along.

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My friend who I was super worried about got her doctor to agree to sign the paid family leave two weeks thing.Should she take it immediately? I saw people posting that LA is telling people not even to go to the grocery store this week, so I would assume immediately. But if she only gets two weeks, I saw that CA is expected to peak in cases in mid may. So should she take her two weeks at the end of april?

Her work is handling this pretty terribly. Up until yesterday when San Bernardino required it by law, only like 5 people in the entire warehouse were wearing masks. Even now most people are just wearing bandanas/dust masks. And nobody is really practicing social distancing. She says shes right next to a fucking printer and people come in there all day. They’re still holding in person meetings, they just sit 6 feet apart.

So if she takes the two weeks now she can hope that the company gets its shit together and people get proper masks. Or maybe a bunch of people get sick and they close down and she gets unemployment. I gave her one of my RZmasks since I don’t really go out at all, and shes trying to order 4 more. Besides that though she just has the surgical masks which won’t offer much protection against people in bandanas

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Looks like NY is going to start counting people who die at home of suspected COVID-19. Good on them. It pisses me off I can already see the conspiracy that libs are artificially inflating the numbers to hurt Trump even more than they are now and it will just be accepted by all of them. Red states obviously won’t do this so they will simultaneously say the numbers are fake, but also real so look how much better red states handled this.

But whatever fuck the political consequences, at least blue states will save a fuck load more lives per capita.

https://mobile.twitter.com/IGN/status/1247924935911247879

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Meh, I use a cut-up T-shirt and tuck the bottom of it into my collar. None of the places open sell masks or the DIY materials needed to make one.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1248217352887549952

Not so sure with this one. It already has high transmissibility in high percent of the population that has a mild to non syptomatic infection.

Influenza is under that pressure as the latent period is short and people feel like crap and stay in bed shortly after symptoms manifest. Milder = reproductive success.

Killing the susceptible is just a side business for this thing. It’s currently highly successful multiplying itself.

Sorry just waking up, forgot to add. The warehouse has a ton of the dust masks i mentioned. They’ve had even before the out break. So they didn’t bother using them until it was illegal not to, and even still most people use bandanas. I think its mostly because they’re young and bandanas look cooler.

The dust masks are at least water proof.

This, to the extent possible.

Often some of these later stage trials take so long because patient recruitment for certain diseases can take a long time. Inclusion criteria can be very strict because a disease can be relatively rare, most times a patient has to fail first and sometimes second line treatments before going on an experimental trial, and sometimes the patient has to be positive or negative for certain biomarkers. But I don’t think CV-19 will tend toward the longer side because it shouldn’t have these issues. (I could be wrong for sure, but that’s my general sense.)

And also Bill Gates is preparing to fund ramp up manufacturing of up to the 7 most promising vaccine candidates while they are still be tested. So time from an approved vaccine to having mass quantities available will hopefully be much shorter than normal.

Having said all that, I’m doubtful we have one approved and readily available for the general public any time before roughly July 2021.

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If the IMHE model is correct new cases of corona will be permanently eradicated in most places by May 1st. The good news is we won’t need a vaccine!

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6.6 million more jobless claims pushing the 3 week total over 16 million, more than 1/10th of the entire workforce. Thank you, working hard!

Take it now and reevaluate at the end of the two weeks. Two weeks is a loooong time in CoronaWorld. And if the hospitalization peak is mid-May then isn’t the next two weeks the period of time they expect lots of people to be getting infected?

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