The wording is “announce the creation of a vaccine” on the betting site but I clarified with him that they have to announce that it has passed testing.
Pretty sure developing a workable vaccine is not the real bottleneck for the 12-18 month timeline we keep hearing about, it’s producing it in mass quantities. I could see WHO announcing they’ve got something that works in September.
Seems like there could be a lot of variations on “passed testing” that’s really like stage 5 out of 13 or w/e to actually putting the vaccine into mass deployment.
Might want something like - finished with stage 3 of clinical trial, beginning deployment.
Stage 3 pretty much always takes a year from what I understand. That’s the mass trial with a lot of people. You have to watch to make sure they don’t all die of some other weird thing or get an arm growing out of their head or something.
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Doesn’t seem like the most trustworthy site if I can also bet on scientists proving dinosaurs went extinct from COVID-19 and Godzilla being sighted in China. Obviously Godzilla would be seen in Japan, not China…
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It’s both. It’ll be 12 months or more for development and then rollout will be its own headache.
He won’t try to lawyer me on this. I can’t see the WHO saying “we have a vaccine” until they’re ready to start actually manufacturing the thing.
My SWAG on one of the major transmission routes:
https://twitter.com/LesWarburton1/status/1248086265628688384?s=19
How Long Does a Phase 1 Clinical Trial Take?
The length of a phase 1 study is typically several months.
How Long Does a Phase 2 Clinical Trial Take?
The length of a phase 2 study can span several months to 2 years. This phase involves up to several hundred people, with researchers looking for the effectiveness and safety of the drug over a relatively short period of time.
How Long Does a Phase 3 Clinical Trial Take?
The length of study for phase 3 clinical trials is usually 1 to 4 years. This phase involves 300 to 3,000 patients, with tests designed to determine the drug’s longer-term effects.
Just make sure he doesn’t think end of phase II (passed tests - yay!) ready for a big mass trial (phase III) equals manufacturing.
Just announce or have ready? They can announce they have various vaccines testing next week but there will not be a working vaccine in September.
See? Our healthcare system has the ability to inspire that joie de vivre to bring the sick, at their weakest, back to full health.
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If the world was just, the fashion industry would be permanently canceled.
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Amount of time testing is going to be slashed in a global pandemic that has shutdown the world, imo.
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Thanks. I’m not surprised my sister has it. She’s a nurse in NJ. I was SHOCKED my brother has it. He’s an introvert that avoids people to begin with. And he lives in Montana. That blew me away.
Seriously, my brother and sister are polar opposites as far as social behavior goes.
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That sounds like a great Medicare for All commercial.
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As someone who was raised catholic, this causes me all kinds of confused feelings.
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Why are you confused?
The Toilet Paper Wars have been manifested.
Pope Francis is a scientist in real life. So he knows science is real but has to balance the imaginary stuff to raise money.
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Possible? Sure. When it comes to biology, I’m basically never going to say that anything is impossible, because there’s all manner of improbable shit out there. But the Euro strain being that much more virulent is also improbable. It’s not like every Euro country is that much worse off. I’d need to look at annotated genome alignments for a good long while before I could give you much more than that.
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